Dear patient readers,

Your humble blogger needs a break from Iran war coverage. Plus there seems to be a dearth of new developments after Trump declared he was making a “final determination” in a Situation Room meeting about a peace deal (which Iran has denied exists) and has been uncharacteristically quiet since then. This could be a harbinger of Bad Things but we do not know for sure yet.

Having said that (do click through for the entire tweet), so far this is an isolated take, which does not make it wrong. Indeed, those hits near Bandar Abbas could have been probes to identify Iranian defensive strategies/asset location. Note that Chas Freeman early on identified the three islands listed below (which Iran took in the days of the Shah and whose ownership the UAE has contested) as feasible-to-capture with limited US forces. Freeman did not see a bigger strategic point save for making the UAE happy. Are these any better as bases for operations than the UAE proper for harassing Iran, or would the point be to act as a spoiler for Oman legitimating the Persian Gulf Authority by assisting from its side of the Strait of Hormuz?

Another theory (again click through):

We have said for the US to try to take islands in/near the Strait of Hormuz was very unlikely to succeed, but did have the one advantage of narrowing the scope of Iranian retaliation. Iran had threatened to take out Gulf State energy infrastructure and desalination plants if the US hit its energy infrastructure or assets (in a non-trivial way). This sort of attack would not seem to fall into that bucket.

Would Iran will sink or seriously damage US Navy vessels ex an aircraft carrier (presumably too many lives, too much toxic waste)? Or does Iran have the precision kit to destroy an aircraft carrier runway w/o sinking it? That would be a neat trick. The best move, if it is in Iran’s ability, would be to damage but not sink US vessels (ideally by disabling navigation or propulsion). A foundering US ship would be yet another well-deserved humiliation.

Below is a super-sized set of links to compensate. Enjoy!

* * *

From Bill L:

4 people are on a small plane. It’s going to crash. There are 3 parachutes. Passenger Brad Pitt says his fans want him to survive, so he grabs a parachute, and exits.

Donald Trump says he’s the best, and smartest President ever, and the country can’t afford to lose him, so he exits. Pope Leo tells the young boy that he should take the last parachute since Leo has lived a long, and satisfying life of service and purpose. The young boy says to the Pope that there are really 2 parachutes, not just one, because Trump took the boy’s backpack, not a parachute.

I Translated Völsa Þáttr for You Norse Mythology & Germanic Lore. Norse Mythology & Germanic Lore (Micael T) “….. can anything be gleaned from the events described in this story about actual pagan practices?”

Understanding the Power of Power Ballads JSTOR. Is this a real category? Does Tina Tuner’s Private Dancer qualify? As a choral singer manque, I like big songs that get bigger, like Can You Hear the People Sing?, Let the River Run (of the New York I once loved that died long ago), and of course warhorses like Jerusalem and compositions that push the limits of bombast like Carmina Burana and Belshazar’s Feast

“Choose ritual. It’s the way home.” The Edgy Optimist (Micael T). Hard to relate if you grew up with no ritual, but the honor walk description is compelling.

It’s time to rediscover the art – and beauty – of repair aeon (Dr. Kevin)

Astronomers finally solve Saturn’s decades-long spin mystery Science Daily (Kevin W)

Plant-Based Diet Associated With Reduced Inflammation Physicians’ Committee (Micael T)

‘It was too easy’: families ask how Kenneth Law enabled so many suicides Guardian (Kevin W)

Sleeping Too Much Might Be Bad for You Now, Because Apparently Nothing Is Safe Vice. I recall reading a study that sleeping 10 hours a night or more was bad for you unless you had been doing it for ten years or more, then there was no correlation with negative outcomes. WTF? I need a ton of sleep, and I think it is for the same reason cats do: if you run on adrenaline, you need a lot of sleep to recover.

Ebola

Climate/Environment

Should we reconsider having children due to fears about the climate crisis? CNN

How climate change could be driving ‘killer’ cold outbreaks in oceans CNN

How cheap renewable energy is finally flattening emissions AAAS (Dr. Kevin)

The Paradox That’s Supercharging Climate Change Wired. Sadly, I doubt this will hold. Coal burning is set to increase due to the Strait of Hormuz impasse.

Scientists Discover a Massive Reservoir of Drinking Water Hiding Beneath the Atlantic Ocean ZME Science (Dr. Kevin)

Record heat rots cocoa beans threatening Ivory Coast agriculture PhysOrg

Nuclear expert fears flooded radioactive dump sites in Siberia can threaten Arctic Ocean The Barents Observer

SEC moves to repeal rule that requires companies to report greenhouse gas emissions and climate risk Associated Press (Kevin W)

China?

Huawei and scientists build 2D parallel computing chip that rewrites Moore’s Law South China Morning Post

China’s H200 hunger drives Nvidia chip smugglers to Japan route Asia Times (Kevin W)

Adventures in Vibecoding Policy China Talk

China urges Japan to learn from history, act prudently on intelligence overhaul CGTN

Southeast Asia

Shangri-La Dialogue opens as Asia seeks alternatives to US shield Asia Times (Kevin W)

Global fuel crisis adds urgency to Cambodian push to tap $300 billion energy resources Reuters

Growing fears: Myanmar farmers face fertiliser, fuel dearth Danang News

Pig Feast: Colonialism in our time Chris Lang

Africa

Climate crisis pushes Malawi food farmers into starvation Mail & Guardian

South of the Border

US Military has spent months building up ships and personnel in Caribbean and is ready for invasion of Cuba: report Independent

Delcy’s ‘Gatekeeper’: Sources Say ex-Trump Official Claver-Carone Holds Keys to Caracas VenezuelAnalysis (Robin K)

Bolivian president warns country at ‘breaking point’ after month of protests BBC

US to designate two Brazilian gangs as ‘terrorist’ organisations Aljazeera

Two killed in US strike on another alleged drug boat in Pacific as campaign’s death toll nears 200 Guardian

Guatemala Agrees To Allow US Airstrikes on Its Territory as US Escalates Military Interventions in Latin America Antiwar.com (Kevin W)

European Disunion

EU to broaden import quotas and tariffs against China Financial Times

EU wants crisis powers to seize control of chip supplies Financial Times

Uniper Sees Gas Shortage in Winter If Storage Rates Don’t Speed Up OilPrice

Merz Aims to Shut Down Party Unrest With Vow to Revive Germany Bloomberg. See URL for original headline.

Reading and math skills among the country’s youth and young adults have declined in recent years and differ significantly between those with Swedish and foreign backgrounds Tobias Hubinette via machine translation (Micael T)

Old Blighty

Young first-time buyers face toughest time since financial crisis, says UK housebuilder Guardian

‘It’s not a nice world to bring children into’: Births fall to the lowest level in 50 years BBC

Israel v. The Resistance

No deal announced after Trump meeting to make ‘final determination’ on Iran BBC

Translated from Persian
US Secretary of War’s Claim About Agreement with Iran

Hagel claimed at the Singapore Security Summit that any agreement with Iran would be a “good agreement”

Hagel also claimed in contradictory statements that Washington is seeking to reach an agreement with Tehran

Iran rejects US peace deal claims; ‘downs’ drone; Trump calls emergency meeting Janta Ka Reporter. Many important clips, including some eye-rollers.

Warmongers Keep Generating AI Atrocity Propaganda About Iran Caitlin Johnstone (Kevin W)

Experts Opposed the Iraq War Daniel Larison

* * *

* * *

Congress quietly moves to integrate US and Israeli militaries Responsible Statecraft (guurst)

Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard suggests Egypt and Turkey are next targets for war Middle East Eye (Kevin W)

New Not-So-Cold War

PUTIN HAS COUNTERMANDED LAVROV AND THE GENERAL STAFF – ZELENSKY IS TRUMP’S HIT John Helmer

Russian BREAKTHROUGH in Kostiantynivka! History Legends

Germany and Netherlands to set up NATO command centre in Baltics, Berlin says Euronews

Poland and Romania join the race to produce military drones El Pais

Dead Men and Prisoners Listed in Ukrainian Mobilisation Fraud Scheme Global Geopolitics

Imperial Collapse Watch

Civilization at the Crossroads with Alastair Crooke Solari Report (MDP)

How the ‘American Way of War’ failed in Iran Unherd

Hegseth Avoids Direct Mention of Iran War, Taiwan in Summit Address Bloomberg

On Popper as the Useful Idiot of Anti-History NESCIO13 (Micael T)

Trump 2.0

Judge temporarily blocks Justice Department’s $1.8B ‘anti-weaponization’ fund The Hill

Judge says Kennedy Center board broke law putting Trump’s name on building, blocks closure Associated Press (Kevin W)

US regulator tries to withdraw penalty against Trump donors’ crypto company CNN (Kevin W)

Oz, Iowa Dems disagree on Medicaid Green Gazette (Robin K)

Why so much election analysis is basically useless G. Elliott Morris

Economy

The next food crisis is already in motion World Economic Forum

Bitter Harvest: How The Iran Crisis Is Altering Fertilizer Markets Forbes

U.S. farmers face credit crisis amid Iran war fallout The Street

* * *

Oil Markets on the Brink: Why Today’s Calm May Be Hiding a Historic Supply Shock Financial Sense

Trump’s Oil Confabulations Larry Johnson. A recap of a few key points from the Art Berman talk we highlighted yesterday

Global Air Passenger Traffic Contracts for First Time Since COVID as Middle East Conflict Drives 46.6% Regional Decline AFM

Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future CNN

Why jet fuel crisis could permanently change flying for travellers everywhere Gulf News

Saga warns of cruise fuel shortage risk Telegraph

* * *

PCE Inflation Surges Further Away from Fed’s Target, now Nearly Double the Fed’s Target, and 5+ Years above Target Wolf Richter

Mr. Market Needs a Therpist

Central bank monetary control erodes as fiscal pressures mount GIS

Trump risks triggering financial crisis with Iran war, warns ECB Financial Times

Antitrust

Breaking Up Health Care Conglomerates—The Right Fix Right Now? JAMA (Robin K)

AI

Important, click through:

Protestware for coding agents Andrew Nesbitt. Our tech maven Dave: “his is the loudest complaint I’ve seen so far from a software developer who does not like Generative AI.”

The AI Boom Has Entered Its ‘Wait, Is This Worth It?’ Era Derek Thompson

What happens next, after the decline of tokenmaxxing? Gary Marcus

How AI Broke the Entry-Level Job Washington Monthly

The Bezzle

Shadow Banking’s $1.47 Trillion Takeover Of U.S. Bank Lending Forbes

TSA Pushes Airports To Opt In To Privatized Security Screening Aviation Week

Blue Origin rocket explodes on the launch pad during an engine-firing test Associated Press

Tesla taxi crashed right into garbage dump: “Terrible speed” Aftonbladet via machine translation (Micael T)

Massachusetts sues UnitedHealth, alleging fraud in state’s Medicaid plans for seniors STAT

Guillotine Watch

SpaceX to Pentagon: Pay up Oligarch Watch

Peter Thiel moves family to Javier Milei’s libertarian Argentina Financial Times. How will he get by with substandard pasta I am told by a foodie friend who went there often and was never able to get good pasta. It turns out after some inquiry she was told they don’t use the right wheat to produce it.

Class Warfare

Americans Are Falling Behind on Their $1.25 Trillion Credit-Card Bill Wall Street Journal

Financial hardship fueling masculinity ‘crisis’ for US men Independent

US Postal Service halts non-essential spending as cash crisis deepens Reuters

A caution against faddist approaches to industrial policy (the old industrial policy rules still apply) Ken Opalo

Hundreds of prolific Wikipedia editors are threatening to go on strike The Verge (Micael T)

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus:

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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