Posted on: May 21, 2026, 08:04h.
Last updated on: May 21, 2026, 08:04h.
- Kalshi is still privately held
- The Tema Durable Quality ETF provides access to the prediction market operator
- It’s believed to be the first ETF featuring exposure to Kalshi
Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the US, is a privately held company, but investors can access it thanks to an under-the-radar exchange traded fund (ETF).
It was revealed today that the Tema Durable Quality ETF (CBOE: TOLL) allocates 8.4% of its portfolio to a special purpose vehicle (SPV) representing Kalshi exposure. Not only does that make the closely held prediction market operator the largest holding in the fund, it makes TOLL the first ETF to provide access to Kalshi.
The Tema Durable Quality ETF invests in companies with deep moats, high barriers to entry, and strong earnings visibility—many of which hold monopoly positions within their industries,” according to the issuer.
Following its latest financing round in which it raised $1 billion, Kalshi is valued at $22 billion, but essentially all of its investors are institutions, venture capitalists and the like, indicating access for retail investors is largely limited. TOLL and some other funds are attempting to change that.
TOLL Kalshi Exposure May Be a Big Deal
News of the Tema ETF holding a stake in Kalshi arrives as more ETFs are providing access to large private companies, such as Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX and Stripe.
That’s a sign ETF issuers know there’s considerable demand among retail investors for access to the largest unicorns and that demand can be met with inflows. Tema is proof positive of that trend as its Tema Space Innovators ETF (NYSE: NASA) is less than two months and is already a $1.2 billion ETF thanks to featuring SpaceX among its top 10 holdings.
TOLL isn’t the first fund available to retail investors with a stake in Kalshi. ARK Invest’s ARK Venture Fund, which recently upped its stake in the prediction operator, has long been a Kalshi investor. That product is a closed-end fund — a materially different structure than an ETF. ETFs like TOLL trade all day like stocks and provide more liquidity, transparency and tax efficiencies than do closed-end and mutual funds.
TOLL’s status as “the Kalshi ETF” could be a boon for a fund that’s led a somewhat anonymous existence. It turned three years old earlier this month and has just $47.5 million in assets under management, but the Kalshi stake could change that. The ETF has 40 holdings.
Tema Continuing Prediction Markets Flirtation
Although there are no signs a Kalshi initial public offering (IPO) is imminent, Tema is aware that investors want access to prediction markets and is dabbling with ways to meet that demand.
In addition to TOLL adding Kalshi to its roster, the issuer earlier this month filed plans for the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF. If that fund comes to market, it will provide exposure to public companies that operate prediction markets as well as those providing trading services to yes/no exchanges.
For its part, TOLL is actively managed and has an annual expense ratio of 0.55%, or $55 on a $10,000 investment.
