2:00PM Water Cooler 10/17/2024 | naked capitalism

Bird Song of the Day

Patient readers, I’m afraid brunch got a little out of hand. More soon! –lambert

Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Laguna del Bosque, Guatemala. “Full singing bout, 12 minutes long! First phrase not too clear, good quality after that. Bird was perched at midlevel in brush under tall cypress trees, close to footpath.”

Also: Please allow me to draw your attention to my post on the Macualey Library and birders, who together make this feature possible.

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Democrat angst.
2. Musk PA events for Trump could break the law.
3. Boeing strike: Wall Street, WSJ, maybe DOD, rush to Boeing’s assistance.
4. Reader query: AI poisoner sought for photographs.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than three weeks to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

* * *

Kamala (D): “This Race Is Kamala Harris’s to Lose. Here’s Why.” [Vanity Fair]. “In these waning stages of the late Trump era, everything and nothing is a surprise. We’ve become immune. I mean, when you have the nominee of a major political party mentally unplugging during a town hall, stopping answering questions, and swaying along to his own Spotify playlist for 39 interminable minutes—and no one seems to blink—we’re out of surprises.” The lead — you’d better sit down — starts with a lie. See the ABC coverage of the event I linked to a couple days ago (“Trump’s Pennsylvania town hall, interrupted by medical emergencies in crowd, turned into an impromptu concert.” People danced and sang, they didn’t leave. More: “But the reality is that if nothing or everything happens between now and November 5, it’s unlikely to change the outcome. This sucker is baked…. I’m going to make a bold prediction here because I just don’t give a shit if I’m wrong, even if this lives on the internet forever. Kamala Harris is going to win. Maybe easily.” More: “Harris looks strong and confident. She’s demanding another debate. She’s marching into the lion’s den of Fox News and perhaps Joe Rogan’s podcast. She’s running clips of Dictatorial Donald at her rallies—to cheers and jeers. On the campaign trail, she’s enlisting the help of a raft of ready-for-prime-time players, including Barack Obama, other top Democrats, and a number of anti-Trump Republicans.” If you say so. More: “Finally, there is the gender gap. Yes, Trump has an advantage with men. But I believe that in the end, the Harris gender gap with women will shatter all previous records and be determinative. I just feel, in my bones—from talks with voters of all stripes, Gen Z to the senior set—that enough women have sufficient outrage from the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, and PTSD from 2016, that they are going to crawl over broken glass to break the glass ceiling.” • Thank heavens the Democrats never codified Roe when they had the chance!

Kamala (D): “Recipe for a Harris Win: More Obama, Less Cheney” [John Nichols, The Nation]. “It’s Obama who has the potential to persuade Wisconsin voters, via targeted media ads and, ideally, a high-profile appearance in the state with this year’s nominee. Obama gets Wisconsin. He has always maintained a strategic sense about how to campaign in the state, where he won the 2008 Democratic presidential primary over Hillary Clinton by a commanding 58 to 40 margin. Obama, who as a young man worked with a Chicago-based law firm that maintained an office in Madison, knows where to campaign in the Badger state.” • The firm where Obama did his lawyering had an office in Madison? That’s our argument? Seriously, 2024 – 2008 = 16. 2024 – 2012 = 12. Twelve years is a long time in politics. And isn’t Kamala’s slogan “We’re not going back?”

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris and the problem with ceding the argument” [Vox]. “In an appearance on Special Report With Bret Baier [Kamala] got tough questions about immigration policy and the southern border. It was in answering those questions that Harris demonstrated how much the Democratic Party is moving right — toward the ideological center on immigration — under the banner of her candidacy. She chose not to defend the virtue of immigration, or of immigrants themselves, and continued to cede the playing field to the right…. This all continues a trend for Harris. Just last week, at a town hall hosted by the Spanish-language media network Univision, Harris was twice presented with opportunities to invoke and condemn Trump’s mass deportation plans when speaking to attendees who had family who were deported or unable to get health care because they lacked legal status. She passed on that chance….”

Kamala (D): First buffalo plaid color revolution:

Can someone explain why Tim Walz is dressed as Elmer Fudd? What’s this cosplay all about? pic.twitter.com/BMlQWkxvek

— Polly Tickal (@BubblesToBurst) October 16, 2024

Symbol manipulators gotta symbol manipulate! (I’m semi-serious about that “color revolution” quip. For the spooks who increasingly infest the Democrat Party, “our democracy” = “color revolution.” Same cause, same people, same methods.)

* * *

Angst:

Oh my:

The thing that so many people have forgotten is how they spent the entire Trump presidency on their last raw nerve, waiting for the horror of the day to descend. The anxiety of having someone so morally, intellectually, and socially defective leading the country.

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) October 16, 2024

“Welcome to the uncanny valley of the 2024 election” [MSNBC]. “In an election this close, though, there are so many different variables to try to solve for that it can feel impossible to find a formula that denies Trump an electoral victory.The resulting calculus sees Harris’ campaign desperately trying to put together a coalition that can remain stable for the next 21 days. How do you both win back Black men who are open to Trump’s ham-fisted appeals while also being relatable to the Never Trump Republicans you’re wooing? How do you persuade progressives to turn out despite their hesitance over American support for Israel’s war in Gaza while also focusing on slowing inflation and driving down consumer prices?” I know! “Orange man bad!” More: “I’ll let you in on a professional secret here: I don’t have an answer to those questions. Even the people doing the work of trying to win this election don’t know for sure. These next three weeks are set to be a period of distinct discomfort as we stare into the unknown. There is no quick fix that will calm the vibes and reassure nervous Democrats.”

“Trying to dance under the cloud of election anxiety” [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. “My partner and I were still buzzing with adrenaline from seeing pop star Dua Lipa close out Saturday night at the Austin City Limits music festival when we were subject to a drunk woman’s 10-minute rant about how she hates her Democratic friend. Lipa’s tour and album were both titled “Radical Optimism,” and we were emersed in her curated world for over an hour, dancing and singing with an eclectic crowd of all races and sexual identities. We enjoyed our freedom as if nearly half the country isn’t poised to snatch it all away.” “Immersed,” I think. More: “He were soon hit with a reality check. As we walked away from the show, we kept pace with a fellow concertgoer as she loudly denounced a friend for voting for Vice President Kamala Harris. ‘All she talks about is abortion,’ the woman, who looked in her late 20s or early 30s, slurred at her two friends. ‘But she won’t listen about the economy. She said she doesn’t care about the economy!’ I hadn’t attended the Austin City Limits Festival in over 15 years, which made it a useful benchmark for how much cultural progress has occurred since the early years of Barack Obama’s presidency. I was skeptical that this woman felt much financial distress in President Joe Biden’s economy, considering she got so loaded at a show where beer was $15 a pop.” • Maybe $15 beers are part of “the economy.” Just a thought.

* * *

“Massive influx of shadowy get-out-the-vote spending floods swing states” [WaPo]. “None of these get-out-the-vote efforts are the work of the presidential campaigns or political parties. They belong instead to a vast, shadow machinery built by partisans often under nonpartisan banners to provide the final nudge that delivers the White House by mobilizing unlikely voters in about seven states. Funded largely without public disclosure, through local outfits and national networks, most of the operations have been lying in wait for years in preparation for this moment…. There is no centralized way to know how much money they will spend or just how many people they will reach. Many of the national groups refuse to disclose their budgets, while hundreds of local groups fly entirely under the national radar, funded through tax classifications that will not report their income until next year and will never disclose their donors…. But people involved expect independent field and mobilization machines to easily be measured in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Given the razor thin margins dividing Trump and Harris in the target states, they could easily prove decisive in one or more states.” • One reason that nobody knows anything… is that nobody knows anything.

GA: “‘Now I like him’: Some Black voters in Georgia see Trump as a real option” [Politico]. “‘This race is between college educated and non-college educated. And in the Black community, this race is between working-class and what I call the bourgeois college-educated class,’ said Shelley Wynter, a Black conservative radio host in Atlanta. ‘If you went to college, an HBCU, were part of the Divine Nine, you’re all in for Kamala Harris.’ But for those in the Black community who aren’t steeped in those kinds of legacy institutions, Wynter continued, there’s some degree of openness toward Trump this time around.” • At this point, we recall people cheering Trump’s motorcade as he drove to turn himself in at Fulton County Jail. I saw the videos, and I don’t think there were a lot of AKAs out there.

PA: “‘Pennsylvania is such a mess’: Inside Team Harris’ unusual levels of finger-pointing” [Politico]. “Top Democrats in Pennsylvania are worried Vice President Kamala Harris’ operation is being poorly run in the nation’s biggest battleground state. They say some Harris aides lack relationships with key party figures, particularly in Philadelphia and its suburbs. They complain they have been left out of events and surrogates haven’t been deployed effectively. And they’ve urged Harris staff in private meetings to do more to turn out voters of color. Some are even pointing fingers at Harris’ Pennsylvania campaign manager, Nikki Lu, who they say lacks deep knowledge of Philadelphia, where the vice president must drive up voter turnout in order to win. ‘I have concerns about Nikki Lu,’ said Ryan Boyer, who, as the first Black head of the city’s influential building trades council, is one of the most powerful labor leaders in the state. ‘I don’t think she understands Philadelphia.’” Whoa. Firing the blame cannons before the election? More: “Harris’ path to victory depends on her ability to turn out the heavily Democratic voters in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and their surrounding suburbs, a coalition that relies on a strong performance with voters of color. If the campaign can’t get them to the polls, the state — and the presidential race — could be lost.”

PA: “Why Elon Musk’s events in Pennsylvania likely violate federal law” [Popular Information]. “This week, we learned that Elon Musk has donated tens of millions of dollars to help former President Donald Trump return to the White House. But he’s not stopping there. Yesterday, Musk announced that he is holding ‘a series of talks throughout Pennsylvania’ over the next few days. There is just one problem: Musk’s events are likely illegal. Musk, of course, has the right to hold an event explaining why he supports Trump. But these events, hosted by America PAC, a Super PAC founded by Musk, are not open to everyone. To attend, people must sign Musk’s petition supporting free speech and the right to bear arms and have already voted in Pennsylvania…. The problem is not the petition, but the requirement to vote to attend Musk’s event. Federal law prohibits making or offering to make ‘an expenditure to any person, either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate.’ Violators can be fined or face up to one year in prison…. In this case, Musk is offering something valuable — an invite to hear him speak — in exchange for voting. ‘Just like one cannot give out free ice cream or car washes or concert tickets,’ Hansen writes, ‘one cannot give out free admission to hear a speech by a tech entrepreneur.’” • Early voting ends in Pennsylvania on October 29.

Our Famously Free Press

Pack animals:

All these outlets are controlled by the same people, and have the same script. “Testy” pic.twitter.com/NIoC4HsWCk

— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) October 17, 2024

Democrats en Déshabillé

“The Democrats’ pro-union strategy has been a bust” [Vox]. “But the political return on Democrats’ investment in organized labor has been disappointing…. According to a report from the Center for American Progress, between 2012 and 2016, the Democratic presidential nominee’s share of union voters fell from 66 to 53 percent. Four years ago, Biden erased roughly half of that gap, claiming 60 percent of the union vote. But contemporary polling indicates that Democrats have lost ground with unionized voters since then. In fact, according to an aggregation from CNN’s Harry Enten, Kamala Harris is on track to perform even worse with union households than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.” Let me guess why: The working class is stupid. More: “But there is reason to think that unions’ capacity to liberalize the views of non-college-educated voters has declined in the Trump era. According to the Democratic data scientist David Shor, his party’s “union premium” — the degree to which Democrats perform better with union voters, when controlling for all other demographic variables — dropped nearly to zero in 2020. Democrats still did better with unionized workers than nonunionized ones that year. Extrapolating from Shor’s math, this was almost entirely attributable to the demographic traits of America’s unionized population, which is more highly educated and less Southern than the American electorate.” • Yep.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Heat Map of January 6th Defendants Across the United States” [Just Security]. “The graphic below is a “Heat Map” of the United States displaying the hometown origins of all the defendants charged for federal crimes allegedly committed in connection with the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol (identified by general location and not by name). The map reflects the work of the largest criminal investigation in U.S. history.” • Impressive work by the organs of state security;

For grins, PA:

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Elite Maleficence

“Seasonal” as in “every season”:

CDC Announce That Summer Wave Of Winter Viruses Is Over And We’re Now Moving Into Fall Wave Of Winter Viruses pic.twitter.com/5fgaLlAHjI

— The Vertlartnic (@TheVertlartnic) October 16, 2024

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “US unemployment claims dropped by 19,000 in the week ending October 12, marking the largest decrease in three months after hitting a 14-month high the previous week. The total number of claims fell to 241,000, coming in well below market expectations of 260,000. This drop comes after a surge in claims the previous week, largely due to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Despite this decline, claims remain well above the averages seen earlier this year, reflecting a softening in the US labor market since its post-pandemic peak.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the US fell 0.3 percent from a month earlier in September 2024, more than market expectations of a 0.2 percent decrease and after a downwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in August.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US soared to 10.3 in October 2024, a significant jump from September’s 1.7 and surpassing the expected 3. Current general activity, new orders, and shipments all experienced growth, with new orders and shipments returning to positive levels. However, the employment index decreased, indicating stable employment conditions.”

Retail: “U.S. Retail Sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail sales in the US increased 0.4% month-over-month in September 2024, well above a 0.1% gain in August and beating market expectations of a 0.3% rise. Sales at miscellaneous store retailers recorded the biggest increase (4%), followed by clothing (1.5%), health and personal care stores (1.1%) and food and beverages stores (1%).”

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s big borrowing might be backing it into a corner’ [Quartz]. “Boeing’s plan to outlast its strike is taking shape, with Reuters reporting on plans to raise $15 billion through stock and convertible bond sales…. Structuring its new borrowings will be a very delicate maneuver for Boeing, which may face credit scrutiny due to the uncertainty of its labor situation. Any further stress on its balance sheet might push the company to a breaking point. Assessing the initial announcement of the new cash injection plans, the Fitch ratings agency was very cautiously optimistic. ‘Management’s willingness and ability to access non-debt capital sources over the coming months will help alleviate downgrade risks,’ it said.”

Manufacturing: “The Machinists Take Boeing Hostage” [Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal]. “While the strike doesn’t have the same potential to shut down the U.S. economy as the longshoremen stoppage, it could have larger consequences for national security. The strike is delaying production of military jets, and the layoffs could reduce research and development on defense and space.

The union may feel it has the whip hand because politicians aren’t likely to let Boeing fail. But the company could still emerge from a strike much weaker. Management errors and unrealistic union demands are damaging a once great American company, and it is hurting workers as much as shareholders.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Needs Some Help to Stem Its Cash Burn and Losses” [Bloomberg]. “[T]he more immediate need is to end the strike and return to producing high-quality aircraft, and Boeing needs a little financial breathing room for that. Certainly, the Defense Department could ease some of Boeing’s pain by renegotiating fixed-price contracts that are strangling the company.” • Interesting to see who’s riding to Boeing management’s rescue…

Manufacturing: “Resolution of a Boeing legal crisis hangs in balance as financial crisis deepens” [Yahoo Finance]. “Boeing’s plan to lay off thousands of workers could potentially pose a problem for approval of the guilty plea deal, according to [Rizwan Qureshi, a former federal prosecutor and white-collar partner in Reed Smith LLP’s Washington office]. The company breached its original DOJ agreement by failing to carry out its promised compliance and ethics measures. Because those requirements were meant to prevent and detect future violations of US fraud laws, Boeing may need to satisfy Judge O’Connor that laid-off workers are not needed to carry out its future safety commitments.” And: “The families want the agreement thrown out in favor of a trial and bigger fines. Boeing has agreed to pay $487 million, including a credit for roughly $243 million in fines already paid…. Relatives of the victims asked the judge to fine Boeing $24.8 billion.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Strike Stalemate Leaves Mediators Hunting For Consensus” [Bloomberg]. “Federal mediators check in frequently with the deadlocked officials, teasing out details of what they’re thinking and paying close attention to even the slightest wording changes. They’re looking for shifts that would merit summoning teams from Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers back for more negotiations, hoping the next round might finally bring a breakthrough… the IAM district has a history of long strikes at Boeing — the average is 58 days, according to Robert Spingarn of Melius Research LLC. And union officials have been preparing workers for years for a long hold-out. ‘This isn’t necessarily unusual and in particular for these parties, if you look back historically,’ said [Beth Schindler, a regional director for the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service], who’s been with FMCS since 1996 in Seattle, helping on previous Boeing strikes. ‘I have no doubt that they are working behind the scenes, even if independently, to figure out what their next steps are.’… ‘We’re looking for rocks to turn over to see if there’s something underneath,’ Schindler said.” • Turn over a rock at Boeing and you’ll find management.

Manufacturing: “Ryanair Chief Says Boeing To Blame For Lower Traffic Growth” [Forbes]. “Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary said that in his 30 years in the airline industry he had never seen capacity constraints like those he’s facing now. ‘We were supposed to get 20 deliveries before the end of December. They’ll probably come now in January and February, and that’s fine. We’ll have them in time for next summer,’ O’Leary said. ‘The big issue for Ryanair is we’re due 30 aircraft in March, April, May and June of next year, and how many of those will we get?’ ‘I think we’re clearly going to walk back our traffic growth for next year, because I don’t think we’re going to get all those 30 aircraft,” O’Leary added.”

Tech: “Musk Sneaks in X AI Training Clause…and No, You Can’t Opt Out” [Tech.co]. “X has updated its T&Cs and eagle-eyed users have spotted a now sweeping rights grab that means all content can be used for training AI models. The new license includes the statement that users who post, submit, or display content on the social media platform now automatically grant the platform a ‘worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free license.’… It also includes the right for X to sublicense content, which means it can offer it up to other parties… The sublicensing element means that AI developers could buy your content from X; and you’ll be completely unaware of who is using it and how.” • Reader query: I don’t want to allow Elon’s new Terms to steal my photographs and turn them into AI slop. Does anybody know of a really fast (in seconds) AI poisoner for images? I’ve tried Nightshade and it’s too slow, like half and hour per image (and the UI/UX is awful).

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 72 Greed (previous close: 69 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 69 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 17 at 3:37:34 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

News of the Wired

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “I don’t know what it is about roses with a wall background that always compels me to photograph them, but that’s my excuse for taking this one.”

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