2:00PM Water Cooler 8/27/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Too-patient readers, thank you for your expressions of concern over my “major life event” (and no, I didn’t win the lottery, or get married). The requirement is dealing with a host of inter-related project management issues, including sunk costs. Life has prepared me for such matters, I hope. If I need help (doubtful, except for your accepting my temporarily limited time) I will reach out, thank you! Meanwhile, if I had wanted to share detail, I would have. So please don’t speculate. And talk about election 2024 as much as you like in comments; just play nice! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Catbirds are in the Mimidae specie (!), like mockingbird and thrashers. Readers have said they like the mimicry, so hopefully MacCaulay Library has enough recordings to keep us all satisfied, at least for a time.

Black Catbird, Planta de Tratamiento de Aguas Residuales de San Miguel, Cozumel, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

In Case You Might Miss…

1. “It’s too soon to tell”.
2. Detective sought for Kamala mask video.
3. Pandemics are mobility-borne.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Good news for Trump in that last week’s deterioration seems to have been slowed, although we shall have to see if Kamala gets a convention “bounce.” Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads — are within the margin of error. If you read most of the press, you’d think Kamala has this race in the bag. It’s not so. Do note, however, Trump’s deterioration in North Carolina: +2.4 last week to +0.9 this week, when OG pollster Sabato moved it to “toss-up” status from “lean Republican.” No wonder Trump held a rally there this week. NOTE With Kennedy, it would seem, about to drop out, I started tracking the national percentage as “Top Battlegrounds,” where Trump’s shrinking lead is +0.1 this week (as opposed to “5-Way RCP Average, where Harris led by +1.1 last week).

“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” [FiveThirtyEight]. No longer Nate Silver, as reader have reminded me. “n Friday, Aug. 23, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he was suspending his campaign for president and endorsed former President Donald Trump. The endorsement from Kennedy, at 4 percent in the popular vote in our forecast, has the ability to give Trump a crucial boost in battleground states. Our model forecast a 4-in-10 chance that Kennedy’s vote share in November would be larger than the margin for either Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris in at least one decisive state. Both candidates will likely welcome that probability going to zero. It is difficult, however, to provide a quick analysis of RFK’s impact on the race. On the one hand, his impact on our polling average is small and Kennedy’s voters mostly otherwise look like strong partisans. But it is not so easy for a forecasting model to react to such a sharp change in the race, mainly because it needs data (from the polls) to do so. Although you and I know that Kennedy endorsed Trump, which should in theory help him a little, the model does not have access to that information until it sees polling data showing such a shift. Programming the model a different way would require us to speculate, mostly with ad hoc rationalization, about the future trajectory of the race. We prefer to leave such forecasting to the model. Readers should expect our model to react to this news over the next week, if Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump does in fact change the polls.” • Hard to say “It’s too soon to tell” in a hundred- now seventy-day race, but it’s too soon to tell. Absent another staggering event, I’d say “it’s too soon to tell” will persist all the way to the end of the race.

It’s too soon to tell:

Checked in with sources in MI WI and PA today and all of them said the race is essentially tied — within the margin of error. https://t.co/UGOKAFAYkW

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) August 26, 2024

Let’s wait a week, then see!

* * *

Kamala (D): “Black Lives Matter Statement on Kamala Harris Securing Enough Delegates to Become Democratic Nominee” [Black Lives Matter]:

While Joe Biden wasn’t our preferred candidate, we cannot ignore the troubling actions of the Democratic Party:

• The DNC refused to host debates during the primary, even though a vast majority of Democratic voters wanted them. This would have likely allowed America to see the decline of Joe Biden in 2023.
• The DNC changed the primary schedule and created rules that made it almost impossible for non-Biden candidates to appear on the ballot, effectively clearing the field of any challengers to the incumbent president.
• Following the primary where millions of Black voters weighed in, after one poor debate performance, the DNC Party elites and billionaire donors bullied Joe Biden out of the race.

Now, Democratic Party elites and billionaire donors are attempting to manipulate Black voters by anointing Kamala Harris and an unknown vice president as the new Democratic ticket without a primary vote by the public. This blatant disregard for democratic principles is unacceptable. While the potential outcome of a Harris presidency may be historic, the process to achieve it must align with true democratic values. We have no idea where Kamala Harris stands on the issues, now that she has assumed Joe Biden’s place, and we have no idea of the record of her potential vice president because we don’t even know who it is yet.

They sound just like Kennedy. More:

Let us be clear: This is about the Democratic Party following a process that protects the legitimacy of any future Democratic president following this unprecedented moment. Installing Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and an unknown vice president without any public voting process would make the modern Democratic Party a party of hypocrites. It would undermine their credibility on issues related to democracy. Imagine our first Black woman president not having won some sort of public nomination process. The pundits would immediately label it as affirmative action or a DEI move, and any progress made by a President Harris would be on shaky foundations. If Kamala Harris is to be the nominee, it must be through a process that upholds democratic principles and public participation.

The DEI talking point is already out there (although as a Republican talking point.)

Kamala (D): “‘Simply put, they are out of their minds’: Kamala Harris won’t let Republicans hide their misogyny” [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. • I didn’t know Marcotte was still typing.

* * *

Trump (R): “The Case for Staying Nervous in the Slog Ahead” [The Bulwark]. “Bounces following conventions have thinned in recent cycles because rising polarization has yielded fewer swing voters. Hillary Clinton received an 8-point bounce after her convention and then lost to Trump. Trump is surely flailing, unable to command the attention he once could, and self-destructing because of it. The odds are that at the debate scheduled for September 10, the real Trump will show up, be an asshole, and lose.” • That Trump is an asshole is already priced in. The question is when and how (I mean, was Trump an asshole when he said Biden “beat it to death” on Medicare? Certainly. Did he win the debate and knock Biden out of the race? He did.

* * *

Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. says he’s been tapped for Trump’s transition team” [Axios]. “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told Tucker Carlson during an interview that aired Monday that he was asked to join former President Trump’s presidential transition team, and he’s ‘looking forward to that.’” • In my hot take on Kennedy’s enlistment in the Trump campaign, I emphasized the “fuzziness” of Kennedy’s future position in the executive branch. Anybody who remembers what happened to the Sandernistas on the Biden transition team will look askance at this.

Kennedy (I): “Will RFK Jr.’s endorsement swing the election to Trump?” [The Hill]. “Millions upon millions of Americans feel totally disenfranchised by a system seemingly rigged to benefit the elites. For a multitude of reasons, Kennedy may be the best person to grab their attention and convince a number to either cast their vote for Trump or switch their vote from Harris. Even a 1 percent swing in Trump’s favor could make all the difference in states such as Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina. By attacking Kennedy, Biden-Harris, the Democratic powerbrokers and much of the mainstream media foolishly awakened a sleeping giant — one who, because of his own exceptional body of work and his still-revered family name, has tremendous rapport with and respect from minority communities; blue collar workers; rust belt workers; union workers; parents of children with chronic diseases; communities dealing with polluted lands and waterways; young voters; independent voters; and the disenfranchised.” • Maybe. It’s. Too. Soon. To. Tell.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Swing States Notch Major Victories For Election Integrity” [Association of Mature American CItizens]. I won’t be joining this one! “Election integrity” (“Never eat at a place called Mom’s”) is a term to watch out for. But this is a good compendium of actions taken at the state level, including paper ballots.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Transmission: Covid

“New vaccines arriving as COVID-19 spoils summer season for millions” [Consumer Affairs]. The deck: “A surprising surge sickened many Americans over the summer; next up — winter.” I don’t think NC readers could possibly have been surprised. More: “The summer surge took health authorities and consumers by surprise. On August 11, Joyce, a New York City apartment dweller, said she was just recovering from a lengthy bout. ‘I am sharing as a cautionary note that I just went through a three-week bout of COVID. Yesterday I had my second negative test in 48 hours and have no fever, so I hopefully can now just recover,’ she said. ‘ while I know we’re thankfully long out of the pandemic, there is a lot of illness out there, much more than I can recall in the last two years.’ Corona virus levels in wastewater are considered ‘high’ or ‘very high’ in 45 states, including California and the District of Columbia. Coronavirus sewage levels were considered ‘moderate’ in Michigan, New Jersey, Vermont and West Virginia. There are now 26 states where COVID-19 is projected to be ‘growing’ or ‘likely growing.’ That’s down from 44 states in those categories about six weeks ago, according to the CDC.” • “It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” —Will Rogers

“Rapid antigen detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 in stray cats: A cross-sectional study” [Veterinary World]. N = 126 stray cats. “Of the 126 animals tested, 30 (23.60%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antigens. To our knowledge, for the first time, this study detected the SARS-CoV-2 antigen in stray cats and confirmed the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Brazil’s stray cat population.” • The authors note the small sample size.

Transmission: H5N1

“”PROPAGANDIZED?” Media and Federal Avian Flu Responses Stress Covid-Era Trust Issues Amid mRNA Push” [Beef News]. “‘It’s almost as if the public has been propagandized,’ Thornsberry said during a phone interview with BeefNews. ‘For whatever reason, the media and the USDA have really downplayed the impacts of this virus on dairy farms, while misleading the public on human risks.’ Following the devastating Texas panhandle fires in early March, dairy farms in the Texas Panhandle began to notice a decrease in milk production in a few lactating cows. Initially, symptoms were thought to be connected to the fires, until some cows began discharging thick, yellow milk, about the consistency of Elmer’s glue. Tests for mastitis came back negative as other symptoms began to present in a small percentage of the regional dairy herd. According to the presentation, about 20 percent of the Texas dairy herd Petersen oversaw began going off their feed and salivating excessively. A smaller percent of the herd (about 5 percent) exhibited significant symptoms—such as high fevers between 105-107 degrees. As one of the first veterinarians on the front lines, Petersen ran every test she could think of, but they all came back negative. Casting a wider net, Petersen sent in samples to test for Avian Flu, which then came back as positive. , the media narrative and federal regulations are ramping up—neither of which appear to be helpful.” • Good to see Peterson get a shout-out. I hadn’t known the Texas Panhandle fire was a possible precursor. But as for “the virus itself winds down”, how would we know that? (I suppose if State Fair season ends without a major outbreak, we can breathe a sigh of relief, but that method seems a little rough-and-ready.)

Vaccines: Covid

One hates to attribute motive, but the continuing FDA hold-up on Novavas doesn’t explicable on either a health or public policy basis:

When you have Redfield saying the obvious and more effective vaccine is from NOVAVAX…..
Maybe @US_FDA and @CDCDirector should think about life being more important than Moderna and Pfizer’s PROFITS and your future career moves https://t.co/VLch3wXY3N

— Evaluar (@bio_evaluar) August 18, 2024

Transmission: Monkeypox

Pandemics are mobility-borne:

You have dozens if not hundreds of flights departing a hot zone hosting a novel Mpox clade with a current mortality rate of close to 4%. You just can’t make this stuff up. pic.twitter.com/10p5NjGqYS

— Michael (@mrmickme2) August 27, 2024

Norman, Bar-Yam, and Taleb got this exactly right in January 2020 (!) in “Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus” [New England Complex Systems Institute]. “Global connectivity is at an all-time high… Fundamentally, viral contagion events depend on the interaction of agents in physical space… With increasing transportation we are close to a transition to conditions in which extinction becomes certain both because of rapid spread and because of the selective dominance of increasingly worse pathogens…. [T]hese observations lead to the necessity of a precautionary approach to current and potential pandemic outbreaks that must include constraining mobility patterns [chokepoints] in the early stages of an outbreak, especially when little is known about the true parameters of the pathogen…. It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to fail do so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then one in the future.”

Infection: Covid

“COVID virus evolves more rapidly in the central nervous system than in the lungs, study finds” (press release) [UIC Today]. Mouse study. “The coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic evolves more rapidly in the brain than in the lungs, according to new research from University of Illinois Chicago and Northwestern University. New viral variants created in the brain and other parts of the nervous system could also travel back to the lungs, where they could become transmissible, the researchers report in Nature Microbiology. That could spread new, dangerous variants of the virus. ‘Potentially, this could be a source of novel variants of concern,’ said Justin Richner, assistant professor of microbiology and immunology at UIC and co-lead author of the paper. ‘It could be that the virus is using these different tissue sites to evolve new mutations, and then those can traffic back into the respiratory tract and spread throughout the population.’… The ability of the virus to rapidly evolve in immune-protected areas of the body, such as the brain or the testes, could drive future dangerous variants.” • Apparently the mutations take place at the Furin Cleavage Site, and may make the virus less virulent (but there seems to be no guarantee of that).

Sequelae: Covid

“Epigenetic patterns, accelerated biological aging, and enhanced epigenetic drift detected 6 months following COVID-19 infection: insights from a genome-wide DNA methylation study” [Clinical Epigenetics]. N = 96. From the Abstract: “Our study provides valuable insights into the epigenetic consequences of COVID-19. Results suggest possible associations with accelerated aging, epigenetic drift, and the disruption of critical biological pathways linked to insulin resistance, immune response, and vascular health. Understanding these epigenetic changes could be crucial for elucidating the complex mechanisms behind long-COVID and developing targeted therapeutic interventions.” • Britannica: “Epigenetics, the study of the chemical modification of specific genes or gene-associated proteins of an organism. Epigenetic modifications can define how the information in genes is expressed and used by cells.” And: “It is clear that at least some epigenetic modifications are heritable, passed from parents to offspring in a phenomenon that is generally referred to as epigenetic inheritance, or passed down through multiple generations via transgenerational epigenetic inheritance. The mechanism by which epigenetic information is inherited is unclear; however, it is known that this information, because it is not captured in the DNA sequence, is not passed on by the same mechanism as that used for typical genetic information. ”

Celebrity Watch

“Possible impact of national responses to the COVID pandemic on medal tallies at the Paris 2024 Olympics” [medRxiv]. From the Abstract: “The Western Pacific countries with a COVID-cautious national perspective (Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea) tended to win more Gold medals than expected in Paris, compared to countries with a COVID-stoical national perspective (e.g. Great Britain, United States) which won fewer Golds than expected. This suggests that a COVID-cautious mentality may have contributed to better performance than a COVID-stoical approach. It is unclear whether any mechanism was physiological (less infectious disease impact before or during the Olympics) or psychological. If this effect existed for Golds, it did not appear to have any effect on Silver and Bronze medals.”

Elite Maleficence

Although I had hoped to post on masking at the DNC, the clock ran out. Tomorrow, a big round-up. However, as soon as the DNC masking story got traction, this Tiktok video from a Harris-affilated site, in which Kamala is masked, started propagating on the Twitter. Are there any detectives in the readership? Here’s the video:

@2024voteharris “I was waiting to talk to you” 🥹 #kamalaharris #harris2024 #trump #trump2024 #democrat #election #republican #unitedstates #usa ♬ original sound – HARRIS 2024

Reader detective, can you run down when and where this video was recorded? “I was waiting to talk to you” doesn’t show up anywhere but in this video and derivatives (i.e., not in any reporting). So far as I can tell, Kamala was not scheduled to appear at any schools after the convention, so the video was recorded beforehand. But how much before? I’m guessing when the Biden administration still recommended masking, but Lambert the Cautious would like to be sure. Thank you! (Stylish black masks, though. They weren’t easy for a lot of people to get.)

CDC and CMS move, one hopes, in response to pressure for good data:

Thanks to everyone’s advocacy, CMS will be requiring hospitals to report key COVID, flu, and RSV data again, after the CDC ended this requirement earlier this year. https://t.co/kqQfjH0Loa

— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran) August 23, 2024

Maybe if HICPAC can manage to get a quorum together for the next meeting, they’ll do something equally sensible and require universal masking in hospital settings.

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: Since things are bad out on the West Coast, I went looking for California hospitalization data to compare with New York’s, and found this: “Due to changes in reporting requirements for hospitals, CDPH is no longer including hospitalization data on the CDPH dashboard. CDPH remains committed to monitoring the severe outcomes of COVID-19 and influenza, including the impact on hospitals. CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) will remain open to accept data, and CDC and CDPH strongly encourage all facilities to continue reporting.” Thanks, Mandy!

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.

[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) The new variant in China, XDV.1, is not showing up here.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The composite manufacturing index in the US Fifth District fell to -19 in August of 2024 from -17 in the previous month, reflecting the sharpest decline in factory activity since the pandemic-triggered crash in May 2020.”

Tech: “The Root Causes of Failure for Artificial Intelligence Projects and How They Can Succeed” [RAND]. “By some estimates, more than 80 percent of AI projects fail — twice the rate of failure for information technology projects that do not involve AI. Thus, understanding how to translate AI’s enormous potential into concrete results remains an urgent challenge. The findings and recommendations of this report should be of interest to the U.S. Department of Defense, which has been actively looking for ways to use AI, along with other leaders in government and the private sector who are considering using AI/ML.” • The “root cause” bullet points address neither AI bullshit (not “hallucinations,” bullshit) nor AI training set theft. Other than that, this page might have been machine-generated from some combination of pre-existing white paper slop.

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 53 Neutral (previous close: 53 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 47 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 27 at 2:22:37 PM ET.

Public Health

I don’t know how Trump’s Surgeon General can be more humane than more liberal Democrats, but here we are:

Gallery

I’m a little suspicious of this account — it is AI? but the juxtapositions are still interesting. Thread:

News of the Wired

“Eating the Birds of America: Audubon’s Culinary Reviews of America’s Birds” [US Bird History]. “Whether birds were large or small, familiar or obscure, palatable or nauseating, Audubon made sampling their meat a part of his extensive process of studying America’s birds for his Ornithological Biography, or, An account of the habits of the birds of the United States of America, a five-volume text that would accompany the 435 paintings that composed his Birds of America, for which he gained his fame. Alongside a description of each bird’s appearance, diet, behavior, and breeding habits, Audubon frequently included a reflection on the taste of the bird’s flesh.” • Hmm.

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From IM:

IM writes: “It’s that time of year. Is it a sunset photo or a plant photo? If you are on team plant, it is Doug Fir * 4 starting from the left, then a Gingko. If on team sunset, it is Aug 2 at about the 49th parallel.”

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