2:00PM Water Cooler 6/26/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

Eastern Meadowlark (Eastern), Lake Wales; Lake Kissimmee State Park, Polk, Florida, United States. “Odd song type from conspicuous perch in wet meadow.”

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Supreme Court decisions (not immunity).

(2) The Debates, pre-game analysis.

(3) Climate anecdotes and tips

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Supremes

“Supreme Court rejects challenge to Biden admin’s talk with social media companies” [The Hill]. “The 6-3 decision does not address the First Amendment issues at the center of the cases and instead denies the challenge filed by two Republican attorneys general and private parties by finding they didn’t have legal standing to bring it. ‘The plaintiffs, without any concrete link between their injuries and the defendants’ conduct, ask us to conduct a review of the years-long communications between dozens of federal officials, across different agencies, with different social-media platforms, about different conduct,’ Justice Amy Coney Barrett wrote for the majority. ‘This Court’s standing doctrine prevents us from ‘exercising such general legal oversight’ of other branches of Government.’” • The headline is a bit deceptive, since the Court remanded the case to the Fifth Circuit. But I don’t know if the standing issue can be cured.

When is a bribe not a bribe? When it’s a gratuity!

The Supreme Court’s second AND FINAL decision of the day is Snyder v. U.S. By a 6–3 vote, the conservative supermajority further weakens a federal statute guarding against corruption in government. All three liberals dissent. https://t.co/90GL1SlWUH pic.twitter.com/m5ydrH8ufM

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) June 26, 2024

2024

Less than a half a year to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

At this point, we should entertain the hypothesis that the Bragg verdict is a damp squib, unless Biden can somehow leverage it in the debate. Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan’s court affects the polling, and if so, how. NOTE Sorry for the excess red dots; I can’t seem to make them go away!

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump courts rappers as surrogates for his campaign to win more voters of color” [NBC]. “At Donald Trump’s Black voter outreach event at a Detroit church last weekend, the church’s pastor and several prominent Black Republicans joined the former president onstage. So did another unlikelier figure: rapper Casada Sorrell, better known as Sada Baby. Most Republican voters may not be familiar with Sada Baby, but there’s a good chance their kids are. In 2020, he went viral with his single ‘Whole Lotta Choppas,’ a pandemic mainstay on TikTok that was among the first viral records on the app. Years later, he sat onstage inches from Trump and said, ‘He might be the first person to make me vote,’ fueled in part by the mere fact that Trump’s team reached out to him. ‘Him reaching out showed me, like, some type of effort that another candidate hadn’t shown ever,’ Sorrell said, noting that Trump could have pursued a bigger Detroit name like rapper Eminem (a notorious critic of him)…. And it’s not a one-off move. As Trump works to court young voters of color, one strategy his campaign has pursued is to turn rap stars into surrogates, pursuing not only nationally renowned names but also smaller acts prominent in their local communities.”

Trump (R): “Trump praises Louisiana displaying Ten Commandments in public schools” [Axios]. “‘I love the Ten Commandments in public schools, private schools, and many other places,’ Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Friday. ‘This may be, in fact, the first major step in the revival of religion, which is desperately needed, in our country,’ he added.” • “Our country.” Trump’s pandering. I have to say, I prefer the Trump 2016 campaign, a bunch of randos flying in Trump’s plane, and Trump doing A/B testing on the fly with the crowds.

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump’s Ground Game Is No Longer In Our Hearts” [The Bulwark]. “For months, Trump was criticized over his small staff and the Republican National Committee’s layoffs and shuttered field offices. But since May, his campaign has quietly been in talks with more than three dozen conservative groups to outsource parts of its voter turnout operation. This would be a first-of-its-kind effort…. It can all be financed with unlimited corporate dollars and untraceable dark money from political nonprofits that are otherwise off-limits to a federal campaign…. This type of arrangement between federal campaigns and outside groups used to be forbidden, but the rules changed under a March 20 Federal Election Commission advisory opinion, sought by the Democratic group Texas Majority PAC and the Elias Law Group. That opinion may turn out to fundamentally change the way federal political campaigns mobilize voters for years to come. It was also a lifeline to the Trump campaign, which was hurting for cash and facing President Biden’s mammoth operation, which has 150 field offices, 400 staffers, and a massive volunteer army across the battleground states.’… ‘After the Trump coup at the RNC, the question is whether the Trump campaign got caught flat-footed and were lucky to get bailed out by the FEC, or was this their plan all along to roll the dice and work with these groups like Turning Point on the ground?’ the Republican consultant asked, cautioning that ‘experience matters. Technology matters. Organization matters. And staff matters. You have to hire the right people and not a bunch of what we call ‘carnies’ who you just can’t rely on.’ In 2022, for instance, paid canvassers in Las Vegas were supposed to be knocking on doors but instead were discovered gambling eight miles away at Caesar’s Palace casino, according to an NBC News report that detailed multiple Republican ground-game problems in Nevada and Georgia.” • Elias Law Group, eh? Hard to believe they’d bring a suit that would benefit Republicans more than Democrats. Three days later–

“Donald Trump’s Get-Out-The-Vote Plan is Bonkers” [Washington Monthly]. “The get-out-the-vote operations, the so-called ‘ground game,’ may determine the outcome in November. This is why it’s bonkers that the Trump campaign has outsourced its ground game to far-right operators with no track record of success…. Turning Point’s reputation as a grifting operation seems deserved. A 2020 investigation by ProPublica found that ‘three Turning Point insiders … won lucrative deals from the group to handle its printing, payroll processing and fundraising. The non-profit has also made misleading assertions about its finances to state and federal regulators.’ An October 2023 Associated Press investigation found: ‘The organization also enriched [Turning Point CEO Charlie] Kirk and his allies … top Turning Point officials collected pricey salaries, enjoyed lavish perks and steered at least $15.2 million to companies they, their friends and associates are affiliated with.’ … According to Politico, Turning Point has filled ‘a few dozen seats on the RNC with allies.’ And Turning Point is now the central player in the Trump ground game.” • Must be more to it than that, since Lara Trump is now head of the RNC.

* * *

“Here’s why shy Trump voters feel safe going public” [FOX]. “Almost from the moment he descended the golden escalator nearly a decade ago, we have heard tell about the infamous ‘shy Donald Trump voter‘ lurking below the surface of public opinion…. From the beginning, part of the magic of Trump’s raucous rallies was that so many of his supporters who couldn’t tell their friends and family were suddenly surrounded by a sea of like-minded Americans ready not just to vote but to party…. But something has changed, from individuals to institutions, the stain of publicly standing up for Trump is all but gone, and in its place stands, not so much defiance, as the simple realization that Donald Trump was a competent president, not a cartoon super villain…. Trump has recently enjoyed high-profile fundraisers from high rollers in big oil and big tech who even four years ago might have shied away from such a MAGA spotlight. But no more.”

* * *

Biden (D): “Patrick Lawrence: Hunter Biden’s Charge of Lying Under Oath” [Patrick Lawrence, ScheerPost]. “More than two-thirds of Americans, according to a poll conducted earlier this year, think the House hearings should continue; half of these respondents — 34 percent of those surveyed — ‘think Joe Biden is guilty of corruption and should be impeached.’ These figures cannot land as a surprise to anyone who has paid careful attention to the House hearings. Among much else, they have already produced substantive evidence establishing in considerable outline the operations of what is called, with justification, the Biden crime family: — Payments of $5 million each to Joe and Hunter Biden by Mykola Zlochevsky, the founding chairman of Burisma Holdings, the Ukrainian gas company. Zlochevsky sought (and enjoyed) Vice–President Biden’s protection from Ukraine’s chief prosecutor, who was investigating Burisma on charges on suspicion of extensive corruption. — Gross payments to the Biden family, chiefly Hunter and Joe’s brother James, of more than $20 million during the years (2009–2017) when Joe was vice-president. — A dense network of 20–odd shell companies the Biden family set up to disguise payments received from influence-peddling schemes Hunter conducted in Ukraine, Russia, China and elsewhere. — The detailed testimony, so far not credibly refuted, of government investigators — from the F.B.I. and the IRS — providing granular evidence of the Biden family’s illegal financial operations.” • Those are the first four items. There are more.

* * *

Biden (D): “Black Voters in This City Could Determine 2024. And It’s Not Looking Good for Biden” [Politico]. Milwaukee. “Polls suggest the president is trailing his 2020 performance in the city and surrounding county. In Wisconsin’s April Democratic primary, his performance within the city limits lagged well behind the rest of the state…. In traditionally Democratic redoubts, polls suggest alarmingly low levels of support among Black and Latino voters. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s underperformance in Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Detroit’s Wayne County — the urban centers that power Democratic fortunes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — enabled Trump’s surprise Rust Belt victories. This year, signs of a lack of enthusiasm for Biden in those places among Black voters is giving rise to fears of a repeat. In Wisconsin, there isn’t much margin of error: The last two presidential elections here have been decided by less than 25,000 votes each. A low turnout among Black voters in Milwaukee — or a diminished winning margin for Biden — would deal a significant blow to his chances of carrying the state and its 10 electoral votes.”

* * *

The Debates: “Hillary Clinton: I’ve Debated Trump and Biden. Here’s What I’m Watching For.” [New York Times]. Clinton shills for her Broadway show right in the lead. I suppose that was only to be expected. More: “I am the only person to have debated both men (Mr. Trump in 2016 and, in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary race, Senator Biden)…. It is a waste of time to try to refute Mr. Trump’s arguments like in a normal debate. It’s nearly impossible to identify what his arguments even are. He starts with nonsense and then digresses into blather…. These ploys will fall flat if President Biden is as direct and forceful as he was when engaging Republican hecklers at the State of the Union address in March. The president also has facts and truth on his side.” Here’s the one item that isn’t boilerplate: “Unfortunately, Mr. Biden starts from a disadvantage because there’s no way he can spend as much time preparing as I did eight years ago. Being president isn’t just a day job; it’s an everything-everywhere-all-at-once job. Historically, that has led to weaker first debate performances for the incumbent.

The Debates: “Biden’s high-stakes gamble risks everything – including his nomination – as he prepares for Trump debate” [New York Post]. “With his job and legacy on the line, Biden seized the moment to take a week off to prepare for his debate with Donald Trump.”

* * *

MO: “Will Cori Bush be ousted like Bowman? New poll shows her opponent leading by one point” [USA Today]. “The poll, conducted by The Mellman Group between June 18 and June 22, found that St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell overcame a double-digit deficit in January to lead Bush 43% to 42%. Four percent of the survey respondents supported other candidates on the ballot while 11% were undecided. He has picked up support across various groups, the poll found, including among whites and Blacks, men and women and those under and over the age of 50. Bell also leads Bush in job performance and favorability ratings. Sixty-one percent of survey respondents gave Bell a positive rating on his job performance while only 49% gave Bush a positive rating. 60% of respondents are favorable towards Bush while 64% are favorable towards Bell.” • MOE: 4.9%. That’s a lot.

MO: “Cori Bush claimed her faith healing helped a sick toddler walk, healed woman’s tumors” [FOX]. “In her 2022 autobiography ‘The Forerunner: A Story of Pain and Perseverance in America,’ Bush wrote about her time working as a faith healer. During that time, the New York Post first reported she claimed that she had an almost supernatural ability within her to heal others. One instance included helping a disabled toddler to walk.” • Better than the Brownstone Institute, I suppose…. Or mainstream macro.

Campaign Finance

“Bloomberg shells out millions to help Biden battle Trump in 2024 presidential election rematch” [FOX]. “Bloomberg, a one-time Republican turned independent turned Democrat, wrote a massive $19 million check to the Future Forward PAC, known as the FF PAC, which is the leading super PAC supporting Biden’s bid for a second term in the White House. And Bloomberg, who briefly ran unsuccessfully against Biden for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, also gave the maximum donation of $929,600 to the Biden Victory Fund, a fundraising committee that benefits the president’s re-election campaign and various Democratic Party committees.”

Republican Funhouse

“Recent State Legislative Primaries Reveal a GOP at War with Itself” [Center for Media and Democracy]. “In Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, and South Carolina, obstructionists who are part of the State Freedom Caucus Network (SFCN) have fielded Republican primary candidates to oppose not just state legislative leaders, but also the candidates they backed. Three of the Republican governors in these states threw their weight behind moderates in contested legislative primaries, but in three states, GOP establishment leaders — a majority whip, a president pro tem, and an assistant majority leader — lost to these right-wing insurgents. Freedom caucuses in these and the seven other states SFCN lists among its members represent an extreme Right faction of the largely MAGA-dominated Republican Party that uses procedural measures in state legislatures to advance their culture war agenda, as the Center for Media and Democracy (CMD) recently reported. These caucuses vary somewhat state by state, but in terms of policy they usually oppose gender-affirming care, Medicaid expansion, most taxation, and allowing public schools to teach about the history of racism in the U.S. Most favor increasing voting restrictions. They oppose Republicans working with Democrats on any issue, and label any legislators who do as ‘RINOs’… ‘In every state where they appear, Freedom caucuses cause headaches for the so-called establishment Republicans in charge,” according to a recent piece in Governing.” • Nothing like this on the so-called left, how odd.

Democrats en Déshabillé

“After Bernie” [Ross Barkan, Political Currents]. Concluding paragraph: “[I]t’s unlikely anyone on the left is currently capable of assembling a national coalition on the scale of what Sanders managed in 2016 or 2020. The political conditions have changed. More importantly, though, few leftist politicians have internalized the lessons Sanders taught, especially when he rose so rapidly in 2016. A winning coalition is a broad coalition. It is knit together around the issues that matter to the greatest number of people. It accounts for those who might fail some of the stricter ideological litmus tests. It is professional, serious, and not held prisoner by online culture. And it is devised, somehow, to seize the Democratic nomination in the manner Sanders, even at his strongest, never could. Sanders, in the Bronx last week, tried his best, hollering about the billionaire class, his voice cutting through the heat. He could only do so much, though, not running for president again—and sans a genuine protégé.” • Sad, and I mean this without irony. On the Bowman rally with Sanders and AOC:

Ok besides what everyone else is saying already, this needs to be said by me. It has nothing to do with politics. It’s about being decent human beings.

If YOU organize an outdoor event in record breaking dangerous heat. YOU supply the water. You don’t say “lol, bring water” https://t.co/0npo8CRAfT

— thomas 🛠 (@t_NYC) June 22, 2024

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Monbiot has a change of heart on sortition” [Equality by Lot]. With quotes. “Having an advocate for sortition with the prominence of George Monbiot could be an important development. But it would be so only if Monbiot does not limit himself to a one-off article but rather makes sortition advocacy a central theme of his activism.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Look for the Helpers

Hopefully this will continue to be legal:

Will be moving my mask distribution efforts to the University of Utah and Salt Lake City 🙂 Hoping to continue as a COVID Safe Campus ambassador 🤞🏼😷

— Vanessa (graduation era)😷 (@vanessainstem) June 21, 2024

Transmission: H5N1

“Bird flu leads to cancellation of 2024 Shiawassee County Fair dairy show” [WWMT]. “Due to the ‘highly pathogenic avian influenza,’ or bird flu, organizers with the Shiawassee County Fair have canceled their 2024 dairy show. This comes after ‘much’ deliberation and consultation with Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, or MDARD, State Veterinarian Dr. Nora Wineland, according to organizers on Facebook.” • Sensible.

Maskstravaganza

Variants: Covid

Sequelae: Covid

“Antibodies from Long Covid patients prompt symptoms in mice” [Science]. “In the quest to explain the symptoms of Long Covid, one suspect—antibodies in the blood that target a patient’s own tissues—is getting extra scrutiny from two teams of scientists an ocean apart. Both groups injected mice with antibodies from the blood of people with Long Covid, the constellation of symptoms that sometimes persist for months or years after a SARS-CoV-2 infection. And in certain cases, they say, the rodents developed symptoms seemingly mirroring those of their human donors, in particular a heightened sensitivity to pain. Some scientists say these studies, one posted earlier this week, bolster the case for a dysfunctional immune system, triggered by a coronavirus infection, directly fueling Long Covid symptoms—and open the door to potential new treatment trials…. But although other researchers said the studies were elegantly done, and may offer novel mouse models of Long Covid, they are less certain about the bottom line. ‘There’s no uniform autoantibodies’ in these groups of patients, says Avindra Nath, clinical director of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke.” • Nevertheless, this suggests the existence of biomarkers. Maybe NIH should be looking for them—

“How to Fix $1.6 Billion Long COVID Program: Experts Weigh In” [MedScape]. “When the National Institutes of Health (NIH) launched a $1 billion dollar research effort in 2021 focused on long COVID, hopes were high that it would lead to some answers for the mysterious riddle of the complex condition. Now, more than 3 years later and with total funding of about $1.6 billion, critics contend the federal government has little to show for its efforts. Disappointment runs high among long COVID specialists and patients, who cite poor scientific coordination, few treatments that go beyond symptom management, and a lack of clinical trials focused on pharmaceutical interventions.” More: “[Grace McComsey, MD, who leads one of the 15 nationwide long COVID centers funded by RECOVER] admitted things aren’t perfect but said that RECOVER has enrolled and retained nearly 20,000 people from an extremely diverse group of patients with nearly 18 papers that have been published or will be published soon. Clinical trials don’t happen overnight, said McComsey, because you have to design the studies, enroll patients, and ensure their safety. ‘No one else in the world is doing anything like this,’ she said.” • So papers are the metric?

Elite Maleficence

Personal risk assessment:

CDC Immunology Webinar pic.twitter.com/zyjycrtwYq

— Outbreak Updates (@outbreakupdates) June 23, 2024

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Tech: So now I suppose the insurgents will try to game the training sets:

Tech: I don’t know who asked for AI either:

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 41 Fear (previous close: 39 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 42 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 26 at 1:24:11 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

“People need this ‘essential’ cognitive ability—and fewer have it than ever before, says psychologist: ‘It’s a major concern’” [CNBC]. “‘We are at risk of losing this essential capability that I call receptivity,’ says Davis, the managing director of Toronto-based leadership consulting firm Russell Reynolds Associates. ‘It’s the ability to have good judgment, to have insight about people, and it’s a major concern.’ Technology, social media and artificial intelligence are to blame, Davis adds: People rely so much on their their phones that they’re increasingly unable to make judgment calls on their own. ‘It’s a cognitive ability that you need to actually exercise in order to not lose it,’ he says. Davis uses GPS as an example. People once used physical maps, or memory, to get to where they needed to go. Now, if your phone dies, you might find yourself lost more easily. ‘What happens when Waze fails? When you don’t have a cell signal? When we don’t have ChatGPT?’ says Davis. People’s ability to talk to and connect with each other is similarly at risk, he says. ‘If your head’s in your phone, you’re meeting people through Tinder profiles or you’re basing your business decisions based purely on a resume and not really seeing or spending time with a person, you’re losing your core human capability to have insight into other people,’ says Davis.” • That “leadership consulting” rubric gives me pause. But anyhow, what’s the problem? “Insight into other people” is for sales and marketing, and that seems to be going OK!

Climate

News you can use:

Other parallel suggestions in the thread.

Ka-ching:

Class Warfare

“Colonel Sanders” [Wikipedia]. • The jobs Colonel Sanders had! Nothing like this today.

News of the Wired

“Things You Didn’t Know About GNU Readline” [TwoBit History]. ” Lots of software depends on the GNU Readline library to implement functionality that users expect, but the functionality is so auxiliary and unobtrusive that I imagine few people stop to wonder where it comes from. GNU Readline was originally created in the 1980s by the Free Software Foundation. Today, it is an important if invisible part of everyone’s computing infrastructure, maintained by a single volunteer.” • Like so much else!

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Clyde:

Clyde writes: “An old apple tree in east central NH. Looking at the trunk it’s amazing that it’s not only still alive but standing and producing apples. Plants and trees’ efforts to keep surviving never cease to amaze me.”

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