Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has just visited the border area in northern Israel and vowed to take “intense action” against Hezbollah, as reported in lead stories in the Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel. By what some may regard as an odd coincidence of timing, this announcement came the same day that a Syrian who shot at the US embassy in Beirut was injured in return fire and taken captive by the Lebanese army.
At 8:34 a.m. local time, small arms fire was reported in the vicinity of the entrance to the U.S. Embassy. Thanks to the quick reaction of the LAF, ISF, and our Embassy security team, our facility and our team are safe. Investigations are underway and we are in close contact…
— U.S. Embassy Beirut (@usembassybeirut) June 5, 2024
Back to the main event. We have recounted Alastair Crooke some months back describing how Israel has been politically committed to ending Hezbollah strikes into the border area with Lebanon, which has resulted in large scale evacuation, with reports ranging from 60,000 to as many as 100,000. Not as well covered has been that Hezbollah has been making these attacks to create a second mini-front in the Gaza war (as in if Israel would enter into a settlement with Palestinians, the attacks would presumably be dialed back to their former nuisance level) and that Israel has been firing into southern Lebanon, making life similarly miserable for its border town denizens.
The displacement of these Israeli settlers has been a festering economic and political wound. Businesses there are shuttered. Israel is providing temporary housing. The settlers say they can’t/won’t go back until Hezbollah has been removed from the border, which Israel treats as meaning Hezbollah must withdraw or be forced to retreat to the Litani River. Mind you, Israel did not get that far in its failed 2006 war with Lebanon.1 By all accounts, Hezbollah is much stronger than then and Israel weaker.2 Hezbollah leader Hassam Nasrallah has said Lebanon will not cede one inch of territory to Israel.
So we have a bit of an out-trade.
Again, back when Crooke first started warning that Israel had committed itself to attacking Lebanon so as to make life safe again for its settlers, defense minister Benny Gantz started blustering that Israel would force Lebanon out of its own border areas if it had to. From the Times of Israel in December:
War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz on Friday warned that Israel would be forced to push the Hezbollah terror group away from the Lebanese border if the international community could not do so through diplomatic means.
Note that the US and Israel idea of negotiating is Lebanon should cede its border areas because they say so, another element of the out-trade.
However, despite the displaced Israeli setlers remaining vocal, not much has happened to advance their cause until perhaps today. One reason is that the IDF has gotten bogged down in Gaza. That underscores a second problem, the IDF has performed much less well against Hamas than officials had expected.
But the third and big problem is that Israel is very likely to lose and lose more bigly against Hezbollah than in 2006. As both Scott Ritter and Crooke have explained, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have all organized themselves to fight Israel and the US. Both wage wars the same way: airpower heavy combat, with the plan/preference being to mount intense, overwhelming, but comparatively short conflicts. So all three forces have created deep and extensive tunnel networks so as to be beyond Israel and US fire. They have also worked out how to be effective with lots of relatively cheap weapons. Crooke stresses that they set out to fight attritional wars, which neither the US or Israel can handle well. and to dial up and down intensity of the engagements.
So if the failure to get the border town settlers back into their homes is a festering wound, why has Israel not acted? I have no idea, but some commentators have suggested that saner heads in Israel, particularly in the IDF, have warned that a war with Lebanon would be a very bad idea. The only reason Hezbollah has not welcomed it is that Lebanon is an economic basket case. A war, even a comparatively short one where Hezbollah won, would still produce a lot of costs in terms of physical damage.
What about the hope that the US would ride in to help Israel if Lebanon were to look like it was winning? Many in Israel keenly desire getting the US involved militarily. The fact that Israel has not (yet) escalated with Lebanon suggests they have doubts about how forcefully and effectively the US could intervene. The US has not been able to check the Houthis. US weapons stocks have been drained in the Ukraine war. Hezbollah’s tunnel systems reportedly dwarf those of Hamas. And they have lots more rockets and missiles too, some of them also more sophisticated.
With that high-level overview, things are heating up because they have heated up, literally. The last set of Hezbollah barrages set off wildfires in northern Israel. Israel and Western accounts are depicting this escalation as kicked off by Hezbollah, although that is far from clear:
🔥 Israel is on fire. In response to Israel’s burning of olive trees in Lebanon with white phosphorus, Hezbollah is burning the Israeli settlements in the north. If we burn.. you burn with us pic.twitter.com/KM0ftnTwii
— Hadi (@HadiNasrallah) June 3, 2024
Israel 🇮🇱 last night dropping US 🇺🇸 made phosphorus bombs on Kfar Kila in southern Lebanon 🇱🇧
White phosphorous burns through to the bone
Israel is a pariah nation. Netanyahu wants a wider regional conflict
Sanctions now
Arms embargo now
The Hague now.pic.twitter.com/diMB3ZswnI— Howard Beckett (@BeckettUnite) June 4, 2024
Human Rights Watch confirmed the use of white phosphorus in post October 7 attacks in South Lebanon (but not the allegations of fresh attacks)
Rights group claims Israel has hit residential buildings with white phosphorous in Lebanon https://t.co/6YA3Nt5RJx
— The Associated Press (@AP) June 5, 2024
The fires resulting from the Hezbollah strikes are fierce:
BREAKING: FIRE RAGES ON IN ISRAEL WITH 16 DEAD AND 7 SOLDIERS INJURED
Several settlements in northern occupied Palestine suffered fires due to rockets launched by Hezbollah, resulting in injuries. pic.twitter.com/OLrv9UO2FT
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) June 4, 2024
These are scenes from Northern Occupied Palestine “Israel” today. It’s on FIRE 🔥
Israel has bombed Lebanon consistently for weeks and months. So Hezbollah’s fired some rockets back today.
Israel did ZERO to protect its own citizens.
Israel is a Terrorist, Apartheid state. pic.twitter.com/UohpuqtNMa
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) June 4, 2024
All Eyes on Israel:
Israel continues to burn with apocalyptic fires spreading rapidly across the north of the country after Hezbollah rockets were fired from Lebanon.
Massive blazes have engulfed huge swathes of land and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people. pic.twitter.com/fsZMl7xzUv
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) June 4, 2024
Hence the government feels compelled to Do Something. First from the Times of Israel:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Wednesday that Israel was prepared with an “extremely powerful” response to attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon, which have escalated significantly in recent days.
“Anyone who thinks that they can harm us and we will sit on our hands is sorely mistaken,” Netanyahu during a visit to the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, which has been largely evacuated since the Lebanon-based terror group began attacking Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis on October 8….
The prime minister visited the area hours after after firefighters confirmed that they had gained control of a series of major blazes in northern Israel sparked by Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks, following some 48 hours of intense firefighting efforts….
Earlier on Wednesday, the government raised the number of reservists the IDF is authorized to call up if needed from 300,000 to 350,000, though military sources told The Times of Israel that the move was related to expanded operations in the Gaza Strip, rather than the northern front.
The IDF said that the cap was increased due to ongoing operations in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah, which has taken more additional personnel than initially planned.
Israeli leaders have threatened to take more “intense action” against Hizbollah after an escalation in cross-border fire, increasing tensions and the prospect of all-out war with the Lebanese militant group.
In a visit to the largely evacuated northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to the fires that raged across much of the region over the past two days, mostly a result of Hizbollah rockets and drone attacks…
“We are prepared for very intense action in the north. One way or another, we will restore security to the north,” he [Netanyahu] added.
The long-serving Israeli leader’s comments come after his military chief, Herzi Halevi, warned that a “point of decision” was fast approaching over whether an offensive would need to be launched in Lebanon….
In recent weeks both Hizbollah and Israel have increased the frequency and range of their strikes. Local leaders and residents in northern Israel have grown exasperated by the inability of the Israeli government to restore security and return people to their homes, and have criticised the absence of a timeframe for a resolution to the crisis.
Hizbollah officials have said that they do not seek to escalate tensions with Israel, but would not halt strikes as long as the conflict in Gaza continues…
Pressure is growing on the Israeli government to act more forcefully against Hizbollah. Apocalyptic night-time images of forests going up in flames have only added to public distress over the loss of security in the north.
Israel is clearly overextended yet feels compelled to make a powerful response. Uber hardliner Ben-Gvir is calling for war against Hezbollah. But what can Israel do that might not wind up being self defeating? Stay tuned.
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1 As I heard from one of the YouTubers commenting on the the 2006 conflict, Israel’s troops did get to the Litani long enough to raise a flag, take a picture, and run away.
2 I am basing this on Scott Ritter, who worked extensively with the IDF in the 1990s. He had a great deal of respect for what they were then. His take since then (my paraphrase) is the IDF has over time both fallen in love with its own mythology and has also become optimized for breaking arms of Palestinian kids.
