This is a news round up of the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary. The race seems to be narrowing to a contest between disgraced former Governor Andrew Cuomo and state legislator Zohran Mamdani.

Early voting has begun as of June 14 and will conclude on June 24.

Why This Race Matters

This is hands-down THE most important political contest currently taking place in the U.S. for five reasons:

  1. New York City is the media and financial capital of the U.S. and what happens in the Big Apple will influence the course of national politics.
  2. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s run for New York Mayor is an attempt to revive a political career that seemingly died in disgrace when he resigned from office in 2021. If Cuomo wins, the sclerotic Democratic establishment will write off the insurgent, younger branch of the part off as sure losers in the 2028 contest and Cuomo will be an instant front-runner in the presidential primary.
  3. The surging challenger Zohran Mamdani has already far exceeded expectations in a multi-candidate field and has a chance to win outright. Mamdani has shown himself to be the most charismatic and talented representative of the Bernie Sanders-Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pseudo-socialist wing of the Democratic party to emerge since AOC herself and would be an instant national figure.
  4. The billionaire funded “Abundance” counter-revolutionary movement led by Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson, Matt Yglesias, and other Democratic pundits has found its messaging being cleverly co-opted by Mumdani and might be rendered instantly obsolete only months after its launch.
  5. There is a significant aspect of MSM and AIPAC-driven Israel-first politics in this race. AIPAC virtually cleared the field of insurgent Democrats in the 2024 cycle, particularly in New York where incumbent progressive congressmen Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones where beaten by lavishly funded Israel-first candidates George Lattimer and Ritchie Torres.

The Official Version of the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary

The New York Times editorial board summarizes the race from their point of view:

Eleven candidates are competing for the Democratic nomination, and many New Yorkers are understandably disappointed by the field. It lacks any candidate who seems likely to be the city’s next great mayor. For that reason, we are not endorsing a candidate. That said, several candidates have substantial strengths. This editorial — which follows our publication of The Choice, a feature that shared the insights of a diverse mix of New Yorkers — is meant to offer guidance for New York voters trying to think through their imperfect options.

The polls indicate that two candidates have emerged as the frontrunners: Andrew Cuomo, a former governor and federal housing secretary, and Zohran Mamdani, a state legislator who represents a Queens district. Mr. Mamdani, a charismatic 33-year-old, is running a joyful campaign full of viral videos in which he talks with voters. He offers the kind of fresh political style for which many people are hungry during the angry era of President Trump.

They make a three paragraph case against Mamdani in the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary:

Unfortunately, Mr. Mamdani is running on an agenda uniquely unsuited to the city’s challenges. He is a democratic socialist who too often ignores the unavoidable trade-offs of governance. He favors rent freezes that could restrict housing supply and make it harder for younger New Yorkers and new arrivals to afford housing. He wants the government to operate grocery stores, as if customer service and retail sales were strengths of the public sector. He minimizes the importance of policing.

Most worrisome, he shows little concern about the disorder of the past decade, even though its costs have fallen hardest on the city’s working-class and poor residents. Mr. Mamdani, who has called Mr. de Blasio the best New York mayor of his lifetime, offers an agenda that remains alluring among elite progressives but has proved damaging to city life.

Mr. Mamdani would also bring less relevant experience than perhaps any mayor in New York history. He has never run a government department or private organization of any size. As a state legislator, he has struggled to execute his own agenda. A telling example came last year. Given an opportunity to expand a pilot program offering free bus rides, one of his signature issues, he instead engaged in a performative protest that doomed the policy, New York magazine reported. He seems to lack the political savvy and instinct for compromise that has made Senator Bernie Sanders, his fellow democratic socialist, an effective legislator.

And spare one paragraph to condemn Cuomo:

The other front-runner, Mr. Cuomo, has his own significant shortcomings. He resigned as governor in 2021, during his third term, because of allegations of sexual harassment or inappropriate touching from at least 11 women. This board called for his resignation at the time because of the disturbing, credible nature of the accusations. We noted that his treatment of women was part of a larger pattern of bullying, self-serving behavior.

Matt Stoller rounds up some of the responses:

Against the Process In The 2025 New York Mayoral Primary

Annie Lowrey, Ezra “Abundance” Klein’s wife, makes a process argument against ranked choice voting for The Atlantic:

Instead of picking one person to lead the city, voters will rank up to five candidates. This process is wonkish and confusing. But it ensures that similar candidates do not split a constituency. This, proponents of ranked-choice voting say, is the most democratic form of democracy.

Cuomo is likely to get more first-choice votes than any other candidate. But he’s not projected to win an outright majority, meaning that the ranked-choice system would kick in. Candidate after candidate would get knocked out, and their supporters’ votes reapportioned. In the end, the political scion with a multimillion-dollar war chest and blanket name recognition could lose to the young Millennial whom few New Yorkers had heard of as of last year. One new survey, by Data for Progress, shows Cuomo ultimately defeating Mamdani by two points, within the margin of error. Another poll shows Mamdani with more support than Cuomo.

Seeing a no-name upstart attempt to upset a brand-name heavyweight is thrilling. But the system has warped the political calculus of the mayoral campaign. Candidates who might have dropped out are staying in. Candidates who might be attacking one another on their platforms or records are instead considering cross-endorsing. Voters used to choosing one contender are plotting out how to rank their choices. Moreover, they are doing so in a closed primary held in the June of an odd year, meaning most city residents will not show up at the polls anyway. If this is democracy, it’s a funny form of it.

There is more to the “Abundance” angle on this campaign that I’ll address below.

Mamdani’s Polling Surge in the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary
Mamdani earned this passive-aggressive show of establishment opposition by surging in the polls. Mamdani had been gaining on Cuomo in the polls for weeks, but he has now he taken pole position, per Politico:

The survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling for Democrat Justin Brannan’s city comptroller campaign, found Mamdani beating Cuomo 35 percent to 31 percent — a difference that is narrowly within the 4.1 percent margin of error.

The poll of 573 likely Democratic voters was conducted between June 6 and June 7 — after nine candidates faced off in the first televised debate. The following day, June 5, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Mamdani, lending political star power to his campaign.

Thirty-nine percent of the poll’s responses came from landlines and 61 percent from text messages — a methodology that favored Mamdani given his strength with those responding via text, according to the results.

Mamdani’s Debate Performance
Mamdani further impressed with this debate performance on the 12th:

Zohran Mamdani: To Mr Cuomo: I have never had to resign in disgrace. I have never cut Medicaid. I have never stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from the MTA. I have neve hounded the 13 women who credibly accused me of sexual harassment. I have never sued for their gynecological records and I have never done those things because I am not you, Mr Cuomo and furthermore the name is Mamdani. M -A-M-D-A-N-I. You should learn how to say it because we got to get it right.

AOC Endorses Mamdani in the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary

Mamdani supporters were impatiently awaiting an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY 14th), but it came when he showed sufficient strength:

AOC spoke at a Mamdani rally over the weekend and made the case against Cuomo:

I think a lot about what has happened leading up to this political moment. Because when I think about our current leadership, this race is not just symbolic about the future of New York City but this race is symbolic about the future of our country.

For so long we have had political leadership including in the Democratic Party that has just wanted to play it safe that has just wanted to be neutral. Where so many people are motivated by their own individual political careers.

I cannot tell you how shocked I have been to see so many of the individuals who called on Andrew Cuomo to resign in disgrace after after so many details of harassment against women, and for those same people who called on him to resign to stand behind him and endorse him for mayor of New York City…

I will tell you as a survivor of sexual assault I will never unsee that ever again.

We have to have a politics of integrity not a politics of cowardice. We have to stand up for what is right in this country and when I say that this is not just about New York City but that this is about the United States I mean that literally.

Andrew Cuomo has made clear that if he wins this race he wants to run for president of the United States of America.

In a world and a nation that is crying to end the gerontocracy of our leadership, that wants a new day, that wants to see a new generation ascend it is unconscionable to send Andrew Cuomo to Gracie Mansion once again.

New York City we need a new day. We deserve a chance. We deserve a New York City that centers working people.

Mamdani’s Grassroots Tactics in the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary
Via Jacobin:

There are many reasons why Mamdani has taken off, including his unflagging focus on affordability in a city amid a crushing cost-of-living crisis. But one of the most important is the campaign’s army of thousands of volunteers.

In the midst of a rising authoritarian federal government in the United States, the Mamdani campaign is feeding a hunger for participation through old-school campaign practices of talking with and persuading neighbors. If part of the remedy for rising authoritarianism is more small-d democratic engagement, Mamdani is delivering it.

One week in late May, from Monday through Sunday, the campaign knocked on 95,321 doors, up from about 40,000 per week throughout April. As of late last week, the campaign had knocked on 644,755 doors and called 261,051 people. A single canvass in Bedford-Stuyvesant this weekend knocked on more than 9,000 doors. A joint canvass with socialist city councilor Alexa Avilés on Sunday in Sunset Park knocked on more than 3,800 doors. Canvasses have also been impressive not only in politically active Brooklyn and Mamdani’s home turf of Queens, but in the Bronx and on Staten Island.

Public Financing’s Role in Mamdani’s Surge in the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary

Mamdani Picking Up Cross-Endorsements in the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary
In a ranked-choice context, candidates can cross-endorse one another, publicly encouraging their supporters to vote for another candidate as their second choice.

Mamdani and Brad Lander announced their x-endorsements via this ad:

The NY Times provided some context:

The partnership, which was announced one day before early voting begins, effectively turns Mr. Mamdani, a state assemblyman, and Mr. Lander, the city comptroller, into something of a joint entry. They said at a news conference in Manhattan on Friday that they would campaign together and that they were proud to endorse each other because they had integrity and Mr. Cuomo did not.

Mamdani today picked up another key cross-endorsement:

Mr. Mamdani, a state assemblyman and a democratic socialist, and Michael Blake, a former state assemblyman who also served as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, will formally announce their cross-endorsement on Monday.

One of Mr. Blake’s main campaign ideas is eliminating credit scores for rent and homeownership applications. He has also highlighted his role at the White House during the Obama administration

Mr. Blake, who is the son of Jamaican immigrants, said he shared much in common with Mr. Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to parents of Indian descent.

Mamdani Reviving The Sanders Vibe
Luke Savage:

Among other political strengths, Mamdani possesses that ineffable ability to communicate social democratic policies in a manner that makes them sound like practical common sense. He is running on rent freezes, universal childcare, free bus service, the creation of a city-owned discount grocery store, and the new taxes on wealthy New Yorkers that will be necessary to finance them. Like Bernie Sanders, from whom Mamdani is clearly drawing inspiration, he is able to stay laser-focused on affordability issues without coming across as purely transactional or lacking in social vision.

I’m certainly no media determinist and think politics today is often too communications focused. But watching Mamdani’s much-discussed videos you can really see a deeper subtext of joy and possibility operating alongside a slickly-delivered message about better governance. I think one of the under-discussed elements of Sanders’ presidential campaigns was the extent to which they allowed people to glimpse the possibility of a better, less barren future while making it seem genuinely within reach. My own passionate support for Sanders was partly about the policies he was campaigning on. But it had as much to do with the democratic horizons he seemed able to open up, and the same can be said of Mamdani.

Cuomo Picks Up A Cross-Endorsement, Doesn’t Reciprocate

Via The NYT

Another candidate, Jessica Ramos, a state senator, endorsed Mr. Cuomo; he did not endorse her in return.

More IdPol in the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary
Adam Johnson from In These Times:

(A recent NY Times article by Nicholas Fandos) included a typical grimy New York Times pot shot that’s worth further analysis, namely because it’s not the first — and likely won’t be the last — time the New York Times tries to sneak in this particular falsehood. It reads:

“Mr. Mamdani, for example, has alienated parts of the city’s large Jewish community with his outspoken support for the Palestinian cause and accusations that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.”

The reader would likely come away from reading this section with the distinct impression Mamdani is uniquely struggling with Jewish New York voters. ​“Parts” could mean anything, but clearly his support among Jewish New Yorkers must be a major barrier or else the publication wouldn’t have gone out of their way to note this, right? But there’s only one problem: It’s entirely false.

According to the latest poll of Jewish New Yorkers by Honan Strategy Group survey, and featured in Jewish magazine The Forward, Mamdani is in a strong second position in the race and is polling with Jewish New Yorkers roughly the same as his overall support. Indeed, relative to his overall numbers, among Jewish voters Mamdani is outperforming former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who the Times never says has ​“alienated” any part of the Jewish community.

Cuomo Pessimism
Ross Barkan at New York Magazine points out how much Cuomo is already damaged just by the race tightening:

But the real story is a tightening race — and one, if it narrows even further, that all but erases the best-case scenario for Cuomo’s comeback. (Disclosure: In 2018, when I ran for office, Mamdani was my campaign manager.) If polling trends are to be believed — and the anecdotal evidence of Mamdani’s surge translates to enough raw votes — Cuomo is not going to demolish Mamdani and the rest of the Democrats. The days of the 25-point polling leads are gone. If, for example, Cuomo’s own polling is accurate, this will have meant a former governor who ruled New York State with an iron fist for nearly 11 years will have struggled to defeat a 33-year-old state lawmaker who only entered office four years ago. Cuomo, bloodied, will have done this with the assistance of a $10 million super-PAC that swamped the airwaves for months.

Mandate talk will be dead. For Mayor Cuomo, there might not even be much of a honeymoon.

Cuomo Still Has One Friend in the 2025 New York Mayoral Primary
From Politico

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg was no fan of Andrew Cuomo when the two served overlapping tenures as mayor and governor. But on Friday all appeared forgiven, with Bloomberg’s $5 million donation to a super PAC boosting Cuomo’s mayoral bid.

It’s the largest cash infusion yet to the entity and comes in the final 10 days of the Democratic primary to oust Mayor Eric Adams, once a Bloomberg ally. The former mayor — a party hopscotcher who is now a Democrat — is jumping in as Cuomo faces a threat from democratic socialist challenger Zohran Mamdani, whose views on hiking taxes on the rich and criticisms of Israel are anathema to Bloomberg.

Cuomo’s Legal Jeopardy
Zephyr Teachout points out that Cuomo’s various legal issues makes him vulnerable to blackmail from Trump just like incumbent mayor Eric Adams:

Let me paint you a picture.

Donald Trump wants to engage in more of his terrifying ICE raids in NYC. Cuomo, who told us not to “overreact” to ICE abuses, is Mayor.

Trump threatens Cuomo with prosecuting him for lying to Congress, opening all the Covid books to the public.
He also has several more prosecutions in his pocket that are dangerous to Cuomo–all the Buffalo Billion retrials, that the Supreme Court just gave the green light to.

Cuomo softens his already soft stance on ICE, and opens the school doors.

We know Cuomo. He will absolutely make that deal. His own hide is the only thing that matters.

The notion that a disgraced Governor extremely exposed to federal prosecutions would be tough with Trump is ridiculous. Cuomo has a weak underbelly, a weak flank, a weak back, he’s all exposed, he’s all open for business.

Potential Ramifications of a Mamdani Win

Mamdani Co-Opts ‘Abundance’ Lingo, Splits the Team

The IDC: Cuomo’s Crypto-Republicans
For those who’ve forgotten how Cuomo functioned as governor, here’s the underhanded trick that especially sickened many people by Ross Barkan:

for nearly decade, Andrew Cuomo directly helped Republicans hold power in New York State.

Politico’s Blake Zeff would definitively report what all close watchers of New York government suspected for a long time: Cuomo actively encouraged the IDC to form a coalition to keep Republicans in power. “The governor’s interest, say knowledgeable sources, was ensuring that Republicans had control over the agenda in the Senate, so that he wouldn’t be handing over power to New York City Democrats,” Zeff reported.

Republicans would retain control of the State Senate from 2013 through 2018, despite the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2:1 in New York. Their majority would span the Obama and Trump eras, aided by gerrymandered districts and their IDC alliance. Cuomo, meanwhile, would repeatedly refuse to actively campaign for or fund Senate Democrats. In 2014, the year he won re-election, he ended his campaign with more than $9 million in the bank as Republicans outspent Democrats to expand their majority. The IDC-GOP alliance would only end when progressive challengers ran primaries, unsanctioned by Cuomo who tried desperately to ward them off, against all the IDC members, defeating most of them.

It’s important to remember Senate Republicans, for much of their tenure, could not have kept their slim majority without the IDC’s help. Had the IDC partnered with Democrats in 2013, Republican rule in New York would have been history.

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