2:00PM Water Cooler 12/17/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, 34 Peregrine Crossing, Chatham, Georgia, United States.

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Trump presser.
2. AOC loses key vote. If any.
3. Mystery drones.
4. Crisis hotline for CEOs.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Transition

“Freewheeling Transparency: Trump Holds First Post-Election News Conference” [RealClearPolitics]. “Donald Trump couldn’t help himself. ‘We will take a few questions,’ the president-elect told reporters assembled at Mar-a-Lago for an announcement about a $100 billion investment from the Japanese technology company SoftBank. He answered nearly two dozen questions in an hour. What was billed as a press statement became a sweeping press conference, his first since winning the election, signaling the return of Trump’s brand of free-wheeling transparency. His staff had summoned reporters to talk up the new investment, but Trump happily fielded questions on everything from the border wall (the sale of unused material was ‘almost a criminal act’) to the alleged link between autism and vaccines (‘there is something wrong and we are going to find out about it’). Five weeks before Inauguration Day, all three of the major cable networks took Trump live. And the president-elect made news off-the-cuff. Trump said of the drones sighted on the East Coast, ‘The government knows what is happening,’ contradicting claims from the Biden administration and condemning them for not commenting on their origin. He added that drones had been spotted over his Bedminster estate in New Jersey, and ‘I decided to cancel my trip.’” • Wisely. The contrast between the 2016 and 2024 transitions couldn’t be greater.

* * *

“Elizabeth Warren asks Trump to set conflict-of-interest rules for Musk” [WaPo]. “The letter sent by email from the Democrat’s Senate office to Trump’s transition team notes that regular members of the Trump Vance 2025 Transition Team operate under an ethics policy that requires them to ‘avoid both actual and apparent conflicts of interest.’ Those rules, which have been published by the General Services Administration, include prohibition from transition team members working ‘on particular matters involving specific parties that affect’ their interests. Musk, who is worth $474 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index, spent more than $250 million to help elect Trump president and has since embraced the label ‘first buddy’ to describe his role. He has been a frequent presence at Trump’s side, advising on government formation and taking a lead role in a new effort to cut federal spending. It is not clear what ethics rules, if any, Musk, has agreed to follow in his role as a Trump adviser. ‘Putting Mr. Musk in a position to influence billions of dollars of government contracts and regulatory enforcement without a stringent conflict of interest agreement in place is an invitation for corruption on a scale not seen in our lifetimes,’ Warren wrote. ‘As your Transition Team Ethics Plan makes clear, the role of government is not to line the pockets of the wealthiest Americans; a strong, enforceable ethics plan for the world’s richest man is a necessary first step for delivering on that promise.’” • Well, I’m glad she’s in there punching. And “First Buddy”? Dear Lord. But surely a billionaire in government is confliced by definition?

“Trump’s for-profit presidency” [VOX]. “”Victory” cologne and perfume. ‘Crypto President’ watches. Limited-edition ‘American Eagle’ guitars. T-branded golf shoes and ‘Fight Fight Fight’ high-top sneakers. These are just a sample of the many products licensed to bear President-elect Donald Trump’s brand, including some that he has promoted on his social media site Truth Social just weeks before his inauguration. If he continues to hawk his merchandise after returning to the White House, that could raise ethical concerns.” • “Don, I keep tellin ya. Set up a Foundation!”

* * *

“Trump passes over RFK Jr.’s daughter-in-law for CIA’s No. 2 job” [WaPo]. “President-elect Donald Trump has told close aides he is no longer considering Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s daughter-in-law to serve as deputy director at the CIA, after a campaign by Republican lawmakers who [Yeah, who wants that?], according to people familiar with the matter…. Cotton, a staunch supporter of subversive espionage operations abroad who in the past has advocated the overthrow of Iran’s government, is one of the most hawkish voices on foreign policy in Congress and is expected to chair the Senate Intelligence Committee next year.” • Hmm….

On Kennedy at HHS:

I wish Trump + RFK had stuck to MAHA (“Make America Healthy Again”), which was a great and even encouraging idea. This looks like throwing red meat the base.

* * *

“Judge rejects Trump’s bid to toss hush money conviction because of Supreme Court immunity ruling” [Associated Press]. The worthless Bragg case lives on: “A judge Monday refused to throw out President-elect Donald Trump’s hush money conviction because of the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity. But the overall future of the historic case remains unclear. Manhattan Judge Juan M. Merchan’s decision blocks one potential off-ramp from the case ahead of the former and future president’s return to office next month. His lawyers have raised other arguments for dismissal, however. It’s unclear when — or whether — a sentencing date might be set. Prosecutors have said there should be some accommodation for his upcoming presidency, but they insist the conviction should stand.” • You’ve gotta give credit to the New York Bar — Bragg, Merchan, and of course the firm of Paul, Weiss — for being deeply committed to the bit.

2024 Post Mortem

“The Electoral College votes to confirm results for the 2024 presidential election today. Here’s what to know” [CBS]. “At state capitols across the U.S. Tuesday, the presidential electors will be gathering to cast their electoral votes, formalizing President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

“Thirteen 2020 fake electors will cast real Electoral College votes for Trump on Tuesday” [CNN]. “Thirteen Republicans who participated in the 2020 fake electors plot, including some who are facing criminal charges, will cast real Electoral College votes Tuesday for President-elect Donald Trump, as electors in the states finalize his victory. These Republican activists hail from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada – critical battleground states that Trump carried this year, after losing them all in 2020. Four years ago, they signed fake certificates falsely claiming Trump won. They were picked again by Republicans to be electors this year, and will sign the authentic certificates.” • I don’t accept the “fake” framing. Some of the “contingent” electors signed in good faith, persauded by the far more culpable Republican lawyers.

Democrats en déshabillé

“AOC loses key vote in House Oversight race to Gerry Connolly” [Axios]. “House Democrats’ Steering and Policy Committee voted to recommend Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) as ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, several sources familiar with the vote told Axios. It’s a huge blow to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) hopes of leading the high-profile panel, though the full Democratic caucus still has to vote to approve steering’s pick. It is rare for the caucus to buck the suggestion of steering – which is closely aligned with Democratic leadership – but it has happened before. Connolly defeated Ocasio-Cortez 34 to 27 on Monday, according to multiple lawmakers present. Ocasio-Cortez said after the vote that she will continue to contest the role when it goes to a vote of the full caucus. The battle between Ocasio-Cortez, 35, and Connolly, 74, came as several committee ranking members have fallen to challenges from relatively younger colleagues.” • The full caucus does still need to vote, but as of now, it looks like all that sucking up didn’t buy AOC a thing. Which is a shame, since she’s a great natural talent. Let that be a lesson to you all! (I don’t care about her age: The Democrat leadership needs to be dismantled with a jackhammer, and I don’t much care how it’s done. Just imagine, Pelosi orchestrating the whole thing from a hospital bed in Paris. Commentary:

* * *

“Senate Democrats push plan to abolish Electoral College” [The Hill]. • This is their focus? Really? Don’t ever change, Democrats!

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Americans Pass Judgment on Their Courts” [Gallup]. • Handy chart:

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Airborne Transmission

Ventilation priorities for the next airborne syndemic:

Schools, for example, are v effective propagators of outbreaks:
– Large numbers of contacts
– Indoor air quality often poor
– Long duration of exposure
– Universal attendance
– Children don’t live alone: they live in households with other age groups -> community spread.

2/

— Amanda Kvalsvig (@AmandaKvalsvig) December 13, 2024

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

[1] (CDC) Seeing a little more red, but nothing new major international hubs. Interestingly, Calculated Risk is watching wastewater too.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Up!

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Retail Sales: “United States Retail Sales YoY” [Trading Economics]. “Retail Sales in the United States increased 3.8% year-on-year in November 2024, the biggest annual rise since December last year, and following an upwardly revised 2.9% gain in October.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production MoM” [Industrial Production]. “Industrial production in the United States fell by 0.1% from the previous month in November of 2024 to extend the 0.4% contraction in October, and contrasting with market expectations of a 0.2% rise. The result was consistent with other surveys that pointed to softness in US manufacturing, unveiling the sector’s struggle ahead of potential tariffs by President-elect Trump next year.”

Capacity: “United States Capacity Utilization” [Trading Economics]. “Capacity utilization in the US fell to 76.8% in November 2024, the lowest reading since April 2021, from a downwardly revised 77% in October and below forecasts of 77.3%. The rate is now 2.9 percentage points below its long-run average.”

Manufacturing: “One Boeing factory has been safe from layoffs and is about to start hiring” [Quartz]. “Although Boeing (BA) has been slow to restart production of the planes built by its unionized workforce and has been laying many of them off amid a year of struggles, the company announced it would be making a big investment in a non-unionized plant. The planemaker said last week that it would be sinking $1 billion in the South Carolina plant where it builds 787 Dreamliners and creating 500 jobs there.”

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 52 Neutral (previous close: 56 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 47 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 17 at 1:39:53 PM ET.

Mystery Drones

“Drone detectors in New Jersey have found ‘little or no evidence’ of wrongdoing, governor says” [Associated Press]. “Murphy told reporters in Trenton that there were 12 sightings of suspected drones in the state on Saturday and one on Sunday. He declined to go into detail about the detection equipment, but said it was powerful enough to disable the drones, although he added that is not legal on U.S. soil… Federal officials, including Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, have repeatedly said there are no signs that any drone operators have shown bad intent, nor is there evidence of foreign involvement.” • So, that’s alright then.

“Drones latest: FBI addresses mystery lights over East Coast as public warned not to shoot them down” [Independent]. “‘Having closely examined the technical data and tips from concerned citizens, we assess that the sightings to date include a combination of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, and law enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and stars mistakenly reported as drones,’ the federal agencies said.” But not planets? More: ‘ and do not assess the activity to date to present a national security or public safety risk over the civilian airspace in New Jersey or other states in the northeast.’ The FBI office in Newark has meanwhile moved to caution the public against trying to shoot down the unmanned devices, warning they could injure themselves.”

“Don’t panic – those mystery drones over New Jersey might not be so mysterious after all” [Techradar]. A new theory: “There was a larger drone test conducted either by the local or federal government or a company that wanted to see how well a delivery fleet operated at night. Since 2021, the FAA has authorized some drone night flights, though the drones still have to remain at elevations under 400 feet. That may account for why these drones have been so visible. They’re larger and cannot break the rules by flying in air space reserved for airplanes.” Those would be the SUV-sized drones (see NC here). And: “After that initial flight (and maybe a few subsequent ones), undiscerning eyes started to think that any light in the sky that they could not identify was also a drone. Drones of the size most people claim they’re seeing, by the way, are not easy to fly, and night flights would require even more expertise.”

“Military expert says ‘government knows the source’ of drones amid mystery sightings” [Hindustan Times]. Additional theorizing: “[Col. William] Dunn, an attack helicopter pilot who spent 33 years in the Marine Corps, said that he believes the ‘drones originate from inside the US’ because ‘it’s very difficult to fly an airplane the size of a vehicle into the United States without being detected.’ He went on to say that ‘a large drone has got to be refueled,’ suggesting that the drones that were recently spotted in New Jersey must have been refuelled somewhere within the country.” • These are, again, the SUV-sized drones (and not the bright lights in the sky, which are planes, or planets).

“Mystery as radioactive shipment goes missing in New Jersey amid drone invasion” [Daily Mail]. “A piece of medical equipment used for cancer scans was shipped from the Nazha Cancer Center in Newfield on December 2 for disposal, but the ‘shipping container arrived at its destination damaged and empty.’ The device, known as a ‘pin source,’ contained a small amount of Germanium-68 (Ge-68) that is used to calibrate a medical scanner’s accuracy. If handled without proper gear, it can cause radiation poisoning.” • If you buy the search for radioactivity theory, the timeline is wrong: The big (HPGe), SUV-sized drones first appeared in November 18. In any case, the dosage from the medical equipment is small, disproportionate to the effort.

Annals of Religion

“Survivors seek a reckoning as FBI investigates child sex abuse in little-known Christian sect” [Associated Press]. I’m filing this here because of the headline, but in fact it’s the institutional structure of the sect that interests me: ” Nearly every detail about the religious group Lisa Webb’s family belonged to was hidden from the outside world. Its followers met in homes rather than churches. Its leadership structure was hard to discern, its finances opaque. [The group known as the ‘Two by Twos’] didn’t even have an official name…. [T]he sect has largely avoided legal repercussions, protected by its decentralized structure, hidden finances and state laws that limit the timeline for criminal charges…. The sect, also known to its members as ‘The Way’ or ‘The Truth,’ was founded in Ireland in 1897 by William Irvine, who railed against the existence of churches. The only way to spread Christianity, he argued, was to do as Jesus instructed in the Book of Matthew: to send apostles out to live among those they sought to convert… [T]he sect’s aversion to property leaves it without apparent assets that might be used to pay settlements, legal experts say…. The sect grew as volunteer preachers — known as workers — went “two by two” to live in the family homes of followers for days or weeks at a time. Sect historians say there were up to a few million members just a few decades ago, but current estimates put the figure at 75,000 to 85,000 worldwide…. Workers are supposed to shun worldly possessions, relying on followers for food, shelter and transportation.”

Class Warfare

“New Crisis Hotline for CEOs?” [Ken Klipperstein]. Differrent from the political parties? “New York state is considering creating a special hotline exclusively for CEOs to report perceived threats, CNN reported this morning. Nice little reminder of just how responsive government can be when it comes to corporate executives…. The lack of any concrete threat hasn’t stopped officials from preparing for one. Last Thursday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul told MSNBC’s Morning Joe about her plans to hold a “proactive” meeting on Tuesday with 175 corporate representatives as well as Homeland Security and counterterrorism officials to discuss how to share intelligence with corporate security, according to Kathy Wylde, CEO of the Partnership for New York City…. ‘Demonization of corporate executives is not new,’ Wylde told Politico last week. ‘It was part of the rhetoric in the financial crisis of 2008-09.’” • Remember in the S&L crisis, when corporate executives actually went to jail? That was before Obama, of course.

“Shock poll: 41 percent of young voters find killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO acceptable” [The Hill]. “The survey from Emerson College Polling found 68 percent of all respondents found the actions of the person who shot and killed Thompson unacceptable. But a startling 24 percent of those aged 18-29 found it ‘somewhat acceptable,’ and 17 percent of that group found it completely acceptable.” • Hoo boy.

“MIT study explains why laws are written in an incomprehensible style” [MIT News]. “Legal documents frequently have long definitions inserted in the middle of sentences — a feature known as ‘center-embedding.’ Linguists have previously found that this kind of structure can make text much more difficult to understand. ‘Legalese somehow has developed this tendency to put structures inside other structures, in a way which is not typical of human languages,’ [Edward Gibson, an MIT professor of brain and cognitive sciences] says. Just as magic spells are written with a distinctive style that sets them apart from everyday language, the convoluted style of legal language appears to signal a special kind of authority, the researchers say. ‘In English culture, if you want to write something that’s a magic spell, people know that the way to do that is you put a lot of old-fashioned rhymes in there. We think maybe center-embedding is signaling legalese in the same way,’ Gibson says.”

“90-hour-a-week Wall Street bankers snorting lines of Adderall at their desks” [The Telegraph]. • Our capital allocation is going great.

“Absinthe: From Green Fairy to Moral Panic” [History Today]. “Underlying absinthe’s dramatic fall from grace was a change in consumers. Once the expensive drink of the French bourgeoisie and artists, absinthe became more affordable in the second half of the 19th century, whereupon workers, women and those in the French colonies, from North Africa to Indochina, began drinking it. Consequently, absinthe came to be blamed for working-class criminality in general and, more specifically, for the acts of the revolutionary Communards after the siege of Paris in 1871. The author Maxime du Camp, for example, described these Communards in his 1881 book Convulsions of Paris, as ‘knights of debauchery and apostles of absinthe’.”

News of the Wired

“U2’s Larry Mullen Jr: my dyscalculia makes ‘counting like climbing Everest’” [The Times]. “Larry Mullen Jr, the U2 drummer, has revealed that he cannot count or add numbers because he suffers from dyscalculia — a learning disability that affects numeracy…. ‘When people watch me play sometimes, they say, ‘you look pained’. I am pained because I’m trying to count the bars,’ Mullen said. ‘I had to find ways of doing this — and counting bars is like climbing Everest.’… About 6 per cent of the UK’s population suffers from dyscalculia, according to the Dyscalculia Network.” • 6%? Really?

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Tennesseewaltzer writes: “Fall Pumpkins–always a sign of the change of season.”

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