2:00PM Water Cooler 11/4/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Yes, I will do an election night live blog tomorrow! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Returning to the Northern Mockingbirds. Love the binomial: Mimus polyglottos.

Northern Mockingbird, 71 Maltby Road East, Wellington, Ontario, Canada. “Amazing mimicking abilities of various songbirds; singing persistently from different perches (top of a tree or a bush, wire); singing while in flight as well; moving from one perch to another quite frequently; very vocal and active, chasing other birds away from its territory esp American Robins; amazing mimicking abilities; great singer although I’m not sure if I would like it every morning next to my bedroom window. So intense :).”

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Today’s RCP polling: Kamala closing.
2. Dueling Op-Eds on Kamala v. Trump.
3. Boeing vote today.
4. News Guild tech workers strike at NYT on election day.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Countdown!

NEW Today’s RCP Poll Averages:

Lambert here: If we ignore the concept of margin of error, today’s survey, combined with Friday’s, says that Kamala is closing (and the Blue Wall is hers again). Recall also that the polls lag: If Big Mo is on Kamala’s site, she could ahead by now. Then again, if you look at the electoral college results with the Toss-Up states turned red or blue, Trump is stable and ahead. (I’m “dancing with the one that brung ya” on method, here; I’ve watched RCP consistently all year, hoping the average would defeat polarization and manipulation, and we’ll know at some point, well, in the near future whether that was an appropriate choice.) Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

* * *

“Trump Isn’t Perfect, but He’s the Better Choice” [Nikki Haley, Wall Street Journal]. The deck: “If you like his policies but are put off by his tone or his excesses, consider the cost of the past four years.” More: “[T]here are also millions whose views on Mr. Trump are mixed. They like much of what he did as president and agree with most of his policies. But they dislike his tone and can’t condone his excesses, such as his conduct on Jan. 6, 2021. This third group of Americans will determine whether the former president returns to the White House. To that group, I’ll point out that Mr. Trump isn’t the only one on the ballot. This election isn’t a referendum on him. It’s a choice between him and Kamala Harris. I don’t agree with Mr. Trump 100% of the time. But I do agree with him most of the time, and I disagree with Ms. Harris nearly all the time. That makes this an easy call. Here are the facts most relevant to me. Americans today on average face some $13,000 in higher annual costs than they did four years ago… Then there’s national security. The Biden-Harris agenda has made the world far more dangerous. Our southern border is our most pressing security threat; Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris have made it dramatically worse…. I agree with Mr. Trump that America should be strong—far stronger than we are today. When he was president, Russia didn’t invade another country, Iran was on its heels, China received serious pushback for the first time in decades, and our southern border was more secure. The world is unsafe under Biden-Harris, and we shouldn’t expect that to change under a Harris administration.” • Ugh. Haley making a play for the suburban white PMC genocidaires?

“Column: The case against Donald Trump is clear. Here’s the case for Kamala Harris” [Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times]. Here are six reasons Harris would be a better president:.. She has promised to seek consensus and compromise, two words Trump has rarely uttered. We could use a dose of both…. Harris’ economic policies are less likely to produce runaway inflation and deficits than Trump’s…. Harris has offered serious proposals to address three pressing problems: housing, childcare and elder care…. Harris says U.S. foreign policy should be based on strong alliances with other democracies, not cynical partnerships with tyrants like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping… And, of course, she that women can make decisions about abortion without state governments endangering their lives.” • “Would work to ensure” = “fight for” = “won’t get the job done,” as Democrats have failed to do on Roe for a generation. McManus isn’t dumb; the Democrats could abolish the filibuster and codify Roe when the Congress opens and the Senate sets its rules. Did Doyle get a commitment from Kamala on this? Or even ask the question? No. So it won’t get done.

* * *

Kamala (D): History rhymes:

So, they narcissistically replaced “we” with “she?”

This is literally “it’s her turn.” https://t.co/mrIm6AFHGK

— Briahna Joy Gray (@briebriejoy) November 4, 2024

2008 – 2024 is not a rapid decay, in historical terms.

Kamala (D): “35 year national security expert”:

The woman stricken with TDS is none other than Patti Morrissey, a former senior DoD and ODNI official. Sadly this sickness is pervasive within the national security apparatus, and that degrades trust in these important government institutions. https://t.co/wDtwWfFrqc

— Ezra A. Cohen (@EzraACohen) November 3, 2024

Now a government contractor (naturally). ODNI is one of the organs of state security involved in election validation. I wonder who many degrees of separation between Morrissey, Jessica Brandt at ODNI’s Foreign Malign Influence Center, and DHS’s Jen Easterly at CISA. Not very many, I would bet. Perhaps they go to the same yoga class, or some such.

* * *

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Social Norming

I genuinely do not understand how we can not protect our children. What is going on here?

It’s like a zombie movie about the collapse of civilization.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Factory Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured goods in the US fell by 0.5% from the previous month to $584.2 billion in September of 2024, extending the revised 0.8% decline in August and loosely in line with market expectations of a 0.4% drop.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists head to the polls in decisive vote that could end strike” [Seattle Times]. “A simple majority of ballots cast will decide whether the offer is approved or rejected. Voting is expected to conclude shortly after 7 p.m., with results announced shortly thereafter…. Union leaders have said Boeing threatened that, if the latest offer is rejected, the next one will be less generous. While Boeing did not specify what would be taken away if it were to fail, Machinists union District 751 President Jon Holden said Boeing might cancel a commitment to build the next airplane in the Puget Sound region, back away from a 38% wage increase or rescind a 1% decrease in health care costs…. Boeing’s October share sale did net the company more time. It raised $21.1 billion last week, selling additional shares in the company to shore up its balance sheet and stave off a potential credit-rating downgrade. With the big capital injection, analysts from Jefferies wrote Friday that Boeing is ‘likely in a stronger negotiating position.’ Workers are meanwhile burning through their savings. The analysts calculated Friday that the average “financial pain” for workers is $10,400 in lost wages. That’s nearing the $12,000 ratification bonus on offer and, for some workers, the $9,900 that they would gain in wage increases in the first year of the contract.” • Yes. Boeing went to Wall Street to raise money to beat the strike, and Wall Street obliged.

Manufacturing: “The Boeing strike vote; the United Airlines example” [Air Insight]. “The pause in MAX deliveries disrupted United’s network planning. Airlines sell seats 360 days out, so planning is essential, and delivery disruptions cause chaos. It is a delicate balance, and we see time and again the industry loses balance quickly. It always recovers, but that recovery invariably means people are stuck somewhere they don’t want to be, with airlines bleeding money as they recover.” • So the IAM still has some leverage beyond the cash flow problem Wall Street solved for Boeing.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Had a Big Week. This One Is Even Bigger” [Barron’s]. “The new labor contract offer increases base wages by about $1.1 billion annually over the life of the contract, according to Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu.” That’s all? More: “Management will have to offset increases with higher productivity. Boeing recently announced it would lay off some 17,000 people which will help offset cost increases.” • But not executive bonuses or stock buybacks. Naturally.

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 4 at 1:09:25 PM ET. Quite a swing.

Rapture Index: Closes up one on Interest Rates. “Long term rates are moving higher” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) •

Gallery

Millet is great. Notice his attempt to catch work (“transfer of energy by a force acting on an object as it is displaced”) in paint, especially with the middle figure’s raised arm. (John Berger spotted the same thing with a potato in mid-air, being dropped into a furrow by a peasant.)

I wish there were an Impressionist Millet (or a Cubist Millet) but AFAIK there is not.

Permaculture

“Using Leaves For Insulation Around My Studio” [Full Moon Fiber Art]. “I started yesterday and finished raking leaves today. I filled up 16 forty gallons bags with leaves and put them on three sides of my studio. The only side without leaves is the south facing where the foundation is so low it’s hardly visible…. And it’s a great use of the leaves. In the spring I’ll burn them in my equinox bon fire. The bags are heavy duty, so I’ll save the ones that survive the winter and use them again next year.” • I’ve done this and it really works; converted the coldest room in the house to the warmest. I recycle the leaves for mulch. The leaves have to be dry. Probably not too late for those of you in cold climates!

Class Warfare

“New York Times Tech Workers Go on Strike” [New York Times]. The deck: “The Times Tech Guild represents more than 600 software developers and others who run the back-end systems behind The Times’s digital operation.” More: “The two sides negotiated until late Sunday. The sticking points in recent days were over whether they could get a “just cause” provision in their contract, which means workers can be terminated only for misconduct or another such reason; pay increases and pay equity; and return-to-office policies. Times management said in an email to workers on Sunday that it had offered a 2.5 percent annual wage increase, a minimum 5 percent pay increase for promotions and a $1,000 ratification bonus. It also said that the company would maintain its current in-office work requirements of two days a week through June 2025, while allowing employees to work fully remotely for three weeks per year. The guild said in a statement that its members would protest daily outside the company’s headquarters starting at 9 a.m. on Monday. “They have left us no choice but to demonstrate the power of our labor on the picket line,” Kathy Zhang, the guild’s unit chair, said in the statement. “Nevertheless, we stand ready to bargain and get this contract across the finish line.” The guild said it was asking readers to honor its digital picket line by not playing Times Games products, such as Wordle, and not using the Cooking app. It added that it had filed numerous unfair labor practice charges against The Times with the National Labor Relations Board over the company’s return-to-office mandates and its attempts to interrogate members about their intentions to strike.”

“New York Times Tech Workers Go on Strike on Eve of 2024 Election, Alleging Unfair Labor Practices” [Variety]. “The Times Tech Guild represents more than 600 engineers, data managers, designers, software developers and tech personnel who develop and run the systems that power the paper’s website and apps. If the strike continues into Tuesday, it will be the first to coincide with a presidential election in the NewsGuild since the 1964 Detroit newspaper strike, according to the union…. None of the Times’ writers or editors who are covering the elections are directly involved in the Times Tech Guild strike. A spokesperson for the Times said the company has ‘robust plans in place to ensure that we are able to fulfill our mission and serve our readers.’” • IOW, scabs.

“Support Striking New York Times Tech Workers by Breaking Your Wordle Streak” [Gizmodo]. “The New York Times’s software engineers are on strike right now and they have a simple request for readers: don’t play Wordle or the crossword puzzle this week. The Times Tech Guild represents more than 600 tech workers who maintain The Times’ digital new empire. The New York Times is a storied news organization but it’s also a tech company. It has thrived when so many other news outlets have failed, in part, because its pivot to digital was smart and robust. Games like Wordle, Spelling Bee, Connections, and the Crossword drive huge numbers to the Times. The NYT Cooking App is beloved by many and brings in a lot of revenue. But all that tech requires a wealth of backend support. In 2022, the Times’ tech workers unionized and they’ve been negotiating with management ever since. They signaled back in September that they were prepared to strike and would do it around election day. According to a statement from the Guild, the current pain points between it and management are: return to office mandates, limits on subcontracting, pay and equity, and “just cause” job protections. Workers want a provision in their contract that would ensure employees are only terminated for misconduct or similar reasons. ‘We have been sounding the alarm for weeks and cleared our schedules to get this contract done before the election week deadline,’ Susan DeCarava, the president of The NewsGuild of New York said in a statement. ‘As workers and subscribers, we’re disheartened that the Times is willing to gamble with its election coverage to avoid agreeing to a fair and just contract. We remain ready to bargain and look forward to reaching an agreement our members at Times Tech Guild will ratify.’ Striking the day before the election is a calculated move designed to put maximum pressure on the paper at a time when its readership is spiking. The vaunted ‘election needle’ is a staple of the Times’ coverage and it doesn’t run without the support of back-end tech workers.”

“Diddy makes shock attempt to silence grand jury witness who made bombshell claims about rapper’s ‘freak-off’ parties” [Daily Mail]. “Attorneys for Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs have made a shocking attempt to silence a grand jury witness who has made bombshell claims about the rapper’s so-called ‘freak-off’ parties. Lawyers Marc Agnifilo and Tony Geragos submitted a letter to the federal judge overseeing the hip hop mogul’s sex trafficking and racketeering case, asking him to expedite their motion for a gag order on witnesses, citing a ‘deluge of improper pretrial publicity,’ ABC News reports. It says the statements made by certain individuals are ‘undermining Mr. Combs’ right to a fair trial and the integrity of the grand jury proceedings.’ The lawyers hit out specifically at Combs’ former friend, Courtney Burgess, who has claimed in multiple interviews he has seen videos of major celebrities being ‘victimized’ at Diddy’s notorious ‘freak-off’ parties.” • I don’t care about “celebrities.” How about executives or politicians? People with real power?

News of the Wired

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Wukchumni:

Wukchumni writes: “North Rim of the Grand Canyon.”

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