2:00PM Water Cooler 9/9/2024 | naked capitalism

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Patient readers, I’m a little behind the eight ball on schedule, here, but I will certainly get to Kamala’s visit to the spice store! –lambert UPDATE Finished!

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Siena poll turns out not necessarily to Kamala’s advantage.
2. Kennedy ad deserves to go viral.
3. Kamala visits Penzeys spice in Pittsburgh.
4. Boeing signals more work in Renton with industrial lease, contract proposal.

Look for the Helpers

I was pleasantly surprised to hear the other day how many people helped women/persons with baby carriages up stairs; my faith in humanity was somewhat restored. Has anybody ever seen similar behavior in the US? Of course, we don’t have typhoons, but tornadoes and hurricanes; it might not be possible to give the same sort of help.

My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza). –>

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

I would say the bloom is off the rose for Harris, except for an upward blip in Georgia. Looks like the enormous liberalgasm afte the Convention was confined to party loyalists. The Kamala campaign must be sore as boils Trump is within striking distance, let alone tied with them. What could account for it? Perhaps that’s why the pivot to RussiaGate. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads, top to bottom — are within the margin of error.

“Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide” [New York Times]”

If this is a “Change vs. more of the same” election, and the voters want change — how could they not? — then Kamala is in real trouble.

“New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August” [New York Times]. Commentary on the Siena poll (above). “[T]he poll nonetheless finds that [Trump] has significant advantages in this election — and they might just be enough to put him over the top. He’s more popular than before. Overall, 46 percent of likely voters say they have of the former president. That’s down a tick from our last national poll, when 47 percent had a favorable view, but it still makes him than he was in 2016 or 2020. He has . We asked voters a two-part question. First, what’s the most important issue to your vote? Second, do you think Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump is better on that issue? By that measure, Mr. Trump has a five-point lead on the issue that matters most to voters, whatever that may be for them. He . A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is ‘not too far’ to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s ‘too far to the right.’ Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s ‘not too far either way.’” • The 100-days election works against Harris, too. If she stumbles, badly, once, she could be a goner. From these numbers, the Trump campaign has laid a very solid foundation. (Maybe voters apply a “Trump Discount” to compensate for the puffery. If he says “Kamala’s a communist,” they discount that by, say, 90%, and still come out with the result that she’s left. Of course, it’s ludicrous to think Kamala’s anything like a communist — do you hear her calling for working class control of the means of production? — but nevertheless, the charge sticks, even given the discount.)

“Harris falling behind among male voters in key states” [The Hill]. “New polls show Vice President Harris faces a major challenge in winning over male voters and is in key states such as Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina…. Trump’s campaign has tried to exploit the gender divide by saturating battleground states with advertising focused on the economy, inflation, illegal immigration and crime, designed to appeal to younger male voters. ‘It’s battle of the sexes,’ said Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, regarding the trend of male voters turning toward Trump and away from Harris. ‘The feeling is that for every advance women make, men necessarily lose.’ ‘,’ he added, pointing to the declines in the number of men attending college as well as some of their earning power.’” • Important that this is swing state data. I wonder what’s happening with the marginal women who are swinging toward Trump and not Harris.

* * *

The Debate (September 10)

Readers, we will have a live blog for the Kamala-Trump throw-down tomorrow. Doors will open at 8:30pm ET.

* * *

Kamala (D): “VP Kamala Harris pauses debate prep in Pittsburgh to visit Strip spice shop” [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]. “During a brief break from debate preparations, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Penzeys Spices in the Strip District and met with supporters Saturday afternoon.” Quote from Kamala: “‘People and the attempts to kind of divide as Americans, and them stepping up to make this public statement, I think is courageous, but also for people like the folks I was just talking with, it really reinforces that we love our country and have more in common than what separates us,” she said.” • “Exhausted about the division” is like English, but it’s not English; Kamala sounds like Pelosi on one of her salad days. More importantly., the spice shop is Penzeys, whose site, for some reason, now throws a server error, but has fortunately been archived–

“About Republicans” [Penzeys]. Representative sample, and there’s a lot more like this: “The truth of our time is we’ve arrived at the point where there’s no way to respect the nonsense the Republican Party is promoting and have any hope of overcoming the problems we as a nation and we as a planet face. Given the choice between saving America and planet Earth or saving the feelings of Republican voters, we are choosing to side with saving our country and our world. I’m sorry it’s come to this. And no, there is no HATE!!! in any of this.” • Heaven forfend. But is this “division”? Sure is. So did Kamala’s advance team choose Penzys deliberately? That is, was this visit an attempt to take the high road visibly and the low road subliminally? Or was it just clumsy and stupid? One thing we do know:

Just so we’re clear on what “across from” means:

And indeed a search of Pennsyvalia Macaroni’s site for “spice” returns 205 hits, so I’m a little dubious about “just as many” too. Nevertheless, the message the campaign is sending is either absurdly Machiavellian or just plain stupid. Or perhaps there’s a more down-to-earth explanation:

Those little checks add up! Nice photo op, too:

I look forward to using my new seasonings from Penzeys Spices in Pittsburgh at our next Sunday family dinner. pic.twitter.com/qQibG7kTRR

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) September 8, 2024

* * *

Trump (R): “The angry, divisive fallout of the Trump shooting in Butler County” [WaPo]. Liberal Democrats are never angry, and above all, never divisive. Now that we’ve settled that: “The long-simmering tensions in Butler that erupted after a [nearly assassinated Trump and killed or injured three others] gunman shot Trump in the ear at a rally have yet to cool nearly two months later…. Today, Butler is a community at a crossroads. The Cleveland-Cliffs Butler Works steel plant still provides 1,100 well-paying jobs. And while people here say many younger residents still move to find better paying jobs elsewhere, Butler is one of just two counties in Western Pennsylvania where the population is growing, according to 2020 to 2023 census data… The county’s rising population has made it a must-visit community for GOP candidates. Pennsylvania is considered a critical state for Trump this election. And while he’s likely to win Butler, analysts say what really matters is how much he wins by…. The Butler County Republican Party had long been marred by internal divisions, but chairman James E. Hulings said today it is more unified than it has been in years. He said the party gained 1,000 new voters over the summer. State voter registration records show Republicans have gained 2,000 new voters since December last year and now number 80,000…. Hulings said many Butler residents who have long stayed out of politics seem enthralled by Trump’s defiance after he was shot. Among those is Bill Secunda, 64, whose sculpture of Trump made out of 4,000 welded nails was recently displayed at the Butler Farm Show. The sculpture is meant to symbolize how Trump, from his perspective, is ‘tough as nails.’” • So the Trump campaign was smart to send him here, and now Trump voters throughout the state will crawl over broken glass to vote for him. I don’t think Kamala picking Shapiro would have made a bit of difference.

Trump (R): “Elton John Says Donald Trump Calling Kim Jong Un ‘Little Rocket Man’ Was ‘Brilliant,’ but Urges People to Vote for a ‘Calmer, Safer’ America” [Variety]. “‘I laughed, I thought that was brilliant,’ John told Variety‘s Ramin Setoodeh in an interview at Toronto Film Festival. ‘I just thought, ‘Good on you, Donald.’ … Donald’s always been a fan of mine, and he’s been to my concerts many, many times. So, I mean, I’ve always been friendly toward him, and I thank him for his support. When he did that, I just thought it was hilarious. It made me laugh.’ And but: ‘While John did not explicitly endorse either Kamala Harris or Trump, he asked rhetorically, ‘I just hope that people make the right decision to see what the future is going to be. Is it going to be fire and brimstone … or are we going to have a much calmer, a much safer place? People can vote for who they like, but as far as I’m concerned, I love love. And I’m a loving person, and I want that to come back to America. I feel it’s been lost in the last 12 years.’” ¨• Hmm. 2024 – 12 = 2012, so the rot set in during Obama’s second term?

* * *

Kennedy (I): This is absolutely terrific:

As readers know, I love stupid humor. And this is really stupid!

#MAHA Shake@DaRealAmberRose pic.twitter.com/p5ivjPA98k

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) September 8, 2024

Our Famously Free Press

“Trump’s real Project 2025 was written for him in Moscow by Vladimir Putin’s men” [Will Bunch, Philadelphia Inquirer]. • I read the whole thing. Yes, Project 2025 was written by Heritage Foundation goons and not in Moscow by Putin’s agents (let’s not be sexist, mkay?). Bunch is recycling RussiaRussiaRussia, Now With Influencers!™. It’s as if Bunch thinks conservatives can’t come up with bad ideas all on their own. Or oppo. Unlike AIPAC influencers, of course, who have nothing but good ideas and never do oppo (and if you want to see an example of an effective, professional foreign influence operation, one that actually drives US policy and defeats US politicians, see Mearsheimer and Walt’s “The Israel Lobby,” which makes everything liberal Democrat demon figure Putin has done look like the pissant, minor league diddleysh*t that it is). Sheesh.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Look for the Helpers

Mask blocs are great, and kudos to those who set them up:

We are working together to source Aura masks! This is an exciting collaboration where half the fun has been in getting to know each other 😄 We haven’t won the auction that we’re aiming for yet, but we will likely need at least $4000! pic.twitter.com/0XGV1d1hkE

— Charlotte Mask Bloc (@CLT_Mask_Bloc) September 7, 2024

Maybe set one up in Nassau County? Just a thought…

Airborne Transmission

“Upper-room ultraviolet light and negative air ionization to prevent tuberculosis transmission” [PLOS Medicine]. From 2009, still germane. From the Abstract: “We evaluated the efficacy of upper-room ultraviolet (UV) lights and negative air ionization for preventing airborne TB transmission using a guinea pig air-sampling model to measure the TB infectiousness of ward air.” But: “Upper-room UV lights and negative air ionization each prevented most airborne TB transmission detectable by guinea pig air sampling. , upper-room UV light is an effective, low-cost intervention for use in TB infection control in high-risk clinical settings.” • Underlining that UV alone is not sufficient.

Transmission: Covid

Because of course:

Oh no, it happened. Someone posted about their whole camp having the “Burning man flu”.

— Miles W. Griffis (@mileswgriffis) September 8, 2024

Airborne Transmission: Mpox

“Contact Tracing for Mpox Clade II Cases Associated with Air Travel — United States, July 2021–August 2022” [Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, CDC]. This sounds re-assuring, but here is the key paragraph:

CDC adapted the mpox community exposure risk assessment§ to define an exposure risk zone for aircraft contact investigations. In general, air passengers seated within a 3-foot radius (one seat in any direction) of the potentially infectious person on flights of ≤3 hours’ duration or within a 6-foot radius (two seats in any direction) on flights of >3 hours’ duration were considered to be in the exposure risk zone.

But that’s not how airflow in airplanes works (CDC is still in the grip of droplet dogma, where coughing is seen as the key mode of distance, and hence a radius is established for how long the droplets will be “in the air”). Sadly, I do not have the study that shows this to hand — it’s in that thread somewhere — but bug me about it if you want it.

Vaccines: Covid

“The gut microbiota modifies antibody durability and booster responses after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination” [Journal of Translational Medicine]. From the Abstract: “The findings of this study underscored the potential interaction between the gut microbiome and the longevity/boosting effect of antibodies following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. The identification of specific microbial associations suggests the prospect of microbiome-based strategies for enhancing vaccine efficacy.” • Interesting!

Elite Maleficence

CDC messing about with maps, again:

A map I never link to, for obvious reasons (nobody travels or lives in a State, with respect to Covid; they travel to or live in a city or town, a place with a wastewater plant).

Just trying to be helpful:

I agree that darker blues hues are scary.

Because I am a helper, I’ve devised a more friendly wastewater color code for the CDC. Enjoy the Caribbean Shallows. https://t.co/STflBKovAu pic.twitter.com/Ao2Qgy6QfI

— JWeiland (@JPWeiland) September 7, 2024

Lambert here: The figures look mildly encouraging for now, but I would expect an immediate worsening after Labor Day travel kicks in, along with grade schools, high schools, and colleges starting up. Stay safe out there!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

Supply Chain: “The largest dockworkers’ union in the U.S. is signaling that it’s more focused right now on preparing for a strike than on getting to the bargaining table” [Logistics Report, Wall Street Journal]. “The International Longshoremen’s Association concluded meetings last week aimed at finalizing plans for the union’s first walkout targeting East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in 50 years. …[T]he expiration of the current contract is now just three weeks away and no negotiations on a new agreement are on the calendar. Union President Harold Daggett says the ILA won’t sit down with employers unless they agree to a 77% pay increase over six years, a big jump over the 32% wage gains that the union for West Coast dockworkers won last year.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Signs Massive Lease Near Seattle as Aircraft Giant Ramps Up Production” [CoStar (PI)]. “Boeing has signed one of the biggest industrial leases of the past two years in the Seattle area, taking more than 1 million square feet at a just-completed building near the Port of Tacoma…. The deal is one of the top industrial leases in the United States ranked by square footage this year and is the largest deal in the greater Seattle area since 2022, CoStar data shows.” • Seems like Boeing won’t be using the space for parking. And this is a tangible signal that there’s more work in unionized Renton.

Manufacturing: “Machinists union agrees on tentative contract deal with Boeing” [Seattle Times (PI)]. “But many workers said the deal falls short of their demands, leaving the possibility of work stoppage on the table. The 11th-hour agreement — reached at about 2:30 a.m. Sunday, with the news publicly released a couple of hours later — will avoid a strike if a majority of the union’s members ratify the deal, as recommended by International Association of Machinists District 751 President Jon Holden, who led the negotiations. The contract offers workers a 25% general wage increase, enhanced retirement benefits, fewer hours of mandatory overtime work and increased parental leave. And, in what could prove a historic element of the contract for this region, Boeing offered a first-of-its-kind commitment that if it launches an all-new plane in the next four years, that jet will be built in the Puget Sound area by the local workforce.” • Why not a seat on the board? Or two seats? And 25% looks a little ambitious beside the ILU’s 77%,

Tech: “MI6 and CIA using generative AI to combat tech-driven threat actors” [The Register]. “‘We are now using AI, including generative AI, to enable and improve intelligence activities – from summarization to ideation to helping identify key information in a sea of data,’ the pair wrote in the Financial Times. ‘We are training AI to help protect and ‘red team’ our own operations to ensure we can still stay secret when we need to. We are using cloud technologies so our brilliant data scientists can make the most of our data, and we are partnering with the most innovative companies in the US, UK and around the world,’ they added.” • Let me know how that works out…

Tech: Business model:

Entertainment: “The Palace Coup at the Magic Kingdom” [New York Times]. Or, as some like to call it, Mauschwitz: “For a company that bills its theme parks as the ‘Happiest Place on Earth,’ Disney’s corporate headquarters have long been anything but — a hotbed of intrigue and power struggles. Chapek’s former chief of staff told people the company’s sixth-floor executive suite was a ‘snake pit.’ Iger ascended almost two decades ago, after a power struggle between Michael Eisner, a long-serving CEO, and Roy E. Disney, Walt Disney’s nephew and a Disney board member. By that time, Eisner had already elevated and then dispatched two handpicked successors, Jeffrey Katzenberg, who became co-founder of DreamWorks, and Michael Ovitz, once the most powerful agent in Hollywood. Iger, who started his career as a weather forecaster on a cable channel in upstate New York, had vowed to never follow in Eisner’s footsteps.” • Nice people!

Entertainment: “Disney-obsessed couple lose lawsuit to get back into exclusive Club 33” [Los Angeles Times]. “As members of Disney’s exclusive Club 33, Scott and Diana Anderson visited the two Anaheim theme parks 60 to 80 times a year. The private club, with its wood-paneled trophy room and other amenities, was the center of their social life. They brought friends, acquaintances and business associates. As a couple, they went on the Haunted Mansion ride nearly 1,000 times. The club’s yearly dues were $31,500, and with travel and hotel expenses, the Arizona couple were spending close to $125,000 annually to get their Disney fix. All of it came to an end in 2017, when Disney revoked their membership in the club after an allegation that Scott Anderson was drunk in public. Diana Anderson, a hard-core Disney aficionado since childhood, called it ‘a stab in the heart.’” Skipping the details, which include a defense that Anderson’s seemingly drunken behavior was caused by “vestibular migraine.” Concluding: “My wife and I are both dead set that this is an absolute wrong, and we will fight this to the death,” Scott, who owns a golf course in Gilbert, Ariz., told The Times. ‘There is no way we’re letting this go.’ He said the lawsuit has cost him about $400,000. ‘My retirement is set back five years,’ he said. ‘I’m paying through the nose. Every day, I’m seeing another bill, and I’m about to keel over.’ He said he will appeal. His wife said she wants to keep fighting. ‘,’ Diana said. ‘I don’t care.’” • Nice people!

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 43 Fear (previous close: 39 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 9 at 12:45:32 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Supply/Price. “Oil demand is dpwn” [sic] [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 181. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Where are there people getting their news?

Gallery

Guillotine Watch

Class Warfare

“Is economics in need of trustbusting?” [Editorial Board, Financial Times]. And the deck: “An elite closed shop of economists at US universities sparks concerns over groupthink.” You don’t say. “A study documents a “high and rising” concentration of Nobel Prize winners in a handful of top US universities: more than half their combined career time has been spent at just eight economics departments. Equivalent measures for other disciplines, from natural sciences to the humanities, are going the other way. There are other signs of economics turning into an elite closed shop: the handful of journals acting as gatekeepers to career advancement are largely controlled by economists from the same top departments, who also disproportionately pass through the revolving doors into policymaking jobs. This cartelisation may have similar causes to concentration elsewhere, from “superstar” dynamics enabled by information technology to the tendency of financial advantage to compound. But does it lead to wasted resources and inferior output, as in other markets?” • Well, “inferior” is just a word. Are they doing what they were hired to do? I’d say they are.

News of the Wired

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “And what self-respecting Botanical Garden (in this case, San Diego’s) doesn’t have a lovely tranquil ‘stop and meditate awhile’ pond? This one stands complete with lovely yellow blossoms sprinkled across its surface, a plethora of lush green plants along its borders, muddy green frogs that so blend with the water-color that all one sees of them is their big yellow eyes, and a small convention of hovering dragon and damselflies.” This looks lovely and peaceful, and I wish I were sitting beside that pond right now.