2:00PM Water Cooler 9/6/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

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Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Lake Massapoag, Norfolk, Massachusetts, United States.

In Case You Might Miss…

1. New RCP charts: race tied (and many revisions to the Covid table as well).
2. Kamala’s campaign keeps her wrapped in tissue paper.
3. Another Boeing manufacturing debacle shaping up nicely.

Look for the Helpers

My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

I would say the bloom is off the rose for Harris, except for an upward blip in Georgia. Looks like the enormous liberalgasm afte the Convention was confined to party loyalists. The Kamala campaign must be sore as boils Trump is within striking distance, let alone tied with them. What could account for it? Perhaps that’s why the pivot to RussiaGate. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads, top to bottom — are within the margin of error.

It’s close:

This is the closest presidential campaign 60+ years. The race has been consistently close in a way I’ve never seen. If the polling is off by a single point in the key swing states, the winner would flip.

The bottom line is this election is up for grabs with 2 months to go. pic.twitter.com/vmZH3PIVxR

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 6, 2024

Or not!

🚨NEW: Democrat-voting pollster Nate Silver releases new Presidential prediction model showing commanding Trump lead:

ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:

🟥Trump: 60.1% (+20.4)

🟦Harris: 39.7% pic.twitter.com/md7Co7lkGQ

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 5, 2024

Responses already filled with RussiaGate bots…

“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” [Project FiveThirtyEight]. “Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former President Donald Trump in national polls and in the swing states, but her margin has slipped modestly over the last two weeks. On Aug. 23, our polling average had Harris up on Trump by 3.7 percentage points. Her margin today is a comparatively lower +3.2. As the polls have gotten closer, Harris’s probability of victory in our election model has also slipped, from 60-in-100 last week to 56-in-100 today.” • A slow bleed. Fast enough?

“‘Torn 20’ voters, still on the fence, will decide if Trump or Harris prevails” [USA Today]. “In the August USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll of likely voters… We found a segment of the population (75 respondents, about 8%) that, with only 2 months until election day, is still either undecided or selecting third-party candidates as both their first and second choice. That’s nearly twice as large as the current margin separating Harris and Trump. (Harris currently leads Trump, 47.6% to 43.3%.)” The election is a Sophie’s choice, so in fact 8% is a remarkably small figure. More: “The overall reason? USA TODAY’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page summarized the data well: “‘Likely voters are holding back from Harris largely because they don’t know enough about her, and those same voters are holding back from Trump because they know too much about him.’” (Hence my view that Kamala doesn’t know who she is might carry weight; they don’t know enough about her because there’s nothing to know._) From the interviews with these twenty voters:

Looks like the double haters haven’t really gone away.

* * *

The Debate (September 10)

* * *

Kamala (D): “One Big Thing Kamala Is Getting Right” [Jill Filipovic, Slate]. “If Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election, she will be the first female president ever, and the first Black and Indian female president too. But despite the historic nature of her candidacy, she doesn’t want to focus on her identity—and, in a pretty notable turn, neither does her party.” Perhaps because Trump threw a brushbaclk pitch? That said, I’m not sure the candidates’s focus is all that reduced; collard greens, and so forth. We’ll also wait to see if Kamala plays that card in debate; I’m guessing she will, since after all how many cards does she have to play? More: “And yet I also believe there is something shallow, and sometimes incredibly counterproductive, about a focus on identity. It flattens more than it layers on, and it is certainly damaging to progressive movements when identity is wielded as a cudgel or a gotcha. Donald Trump’s four years in office were such a shock to the system, and such a victory for racism and sexism that the politics of identity on the left went into overdrive. A lot of good came out of this: movements against racial injustice and sexual abuse; a broader shared vocabulary with which to talk about power and fairness. But, as inevitably happens with well-meaning but extremely zealous social movements, there were excesses.” • This is silly. Identity politics had been in overdrive for years, and very well funded in the NGOs, too. You can’t blame Trump for that. Nice try.

Kamala (D): “How Harris dodges scrutiny” [Axios]. Worth reading in full. This caught my eye

Harris is copying President Biden’s self-protection media strategy — duck tough interviews and limit improvisational moments.

Her circumstances are different, for sure. She entered the race just seven weeks ago, did dozens of interviews this year before Biden’s exit, and plans to do more interviews and gaggles.

But with her debate with former President Trump coming up Tuesday (9pm ET), Harris has big questions to answer in two areas that go to the heart of running America:

1. Why did President Biden’s top advisers routinely leak word they found her performance as vice president disappointing or episodically problematic?

2. How did her views change in five years, from liberal to centrist on health care, immigration and energy? Why should voters believe her new views are the ones she’d stick with inside the White House?

Keeping your candidate wrapped in tissue paper is not a sign of strength. And if there’s one thing we know about Trump, it’s that he’s expert in sniffing out weakness and taking advantage of it. But with Harris in hiding, that’s not so easy to do. Perhaps in “the” debate (only one? Really? In a Presidential campaign?). Mark Penn, amazingly, gets it right:

One interview. One debate. Some rah rah stump speech you read over and over. And voila you have a 50 per cent chance of being president.

Good gig if you can get it. No 3 debates. No 2 years of primaries, coalition building, no detailed policy development, and no daily press…

— Mark Penn (@Mark_Penn) September 4, 2024

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris ran her office like a prosecutor. Not everyone liked that” [WaPo]. • Worth reading in full, since this is in essence the case for Harris. I don’t find it impressive, particularly the issues she chose to focus on (and for the rest of it, nobody’s going to give a straight answer now anyhow. The Axios article immediately above is much sharper.

Kamala (D): “Harris abandons 2019 pledge to ban plastic straws” [Axios]. • Ouch!

Kamala (D): Also ouch:

just realized andrew tate and kamala harris wear the same silhouette pic.twitter.com/JdX8bW7V13

— derek guy (@dieworkwear) September 6, 2024

* * *

Trump (R): “Judge Merchan delays sentencing in Trump’s hush money case until after election” [MSNBC]. “Judge Juan Merchan has agreed to delay Donald Trump’s sentencing in New York until after the election, showing the latest way that the GOP presidential nominee has benefited from the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling. Trump’s lawyers cited the ruling in seeking to push the Sept. 18 sentencing. Merchan had previously set Sept. 16 to rule on Trump’s motion to overturn his guilty verdicts based on the immunity ruling, and his lawyers signaled to the judge that if he rules against them on that motion, then they’ll immediately appeal prior to sentencing. On Friday, Merchan said he will now decide whether to set aside the guilty verdicts on Nov. 12 and then proceed to sentencing (if necessary) on Nov. 26. Election day is Nov. 5. Merchan postponed the matter reluctantly, writing to the parties on Friday that doing so would avoid any appearance — ‘however unwarranted,’ the judge wrote — that the proceeding had been affected by or sought to affect the election.”

Trump (R): “Evidence in January 6 case against Trump could be released before election under new schedule” [CNN]. “Smith’s team said Thursday that they wanted to file an initial brief that would include ‘substantial exhibits’ that would lay out for the judge the context, form and content of relevant evidence in the case – .” • What. Why? Commentary on the “substantial exhibits”:

Guys, it’s not a win that the J6 case against Donald Trump is not going to trial before the election.

What Chutkan did today by taking the rare—unprecedented?—step of allowing DOJ to file an “opening brief” on additional immunity questions is a way to put Trump on trial without…

— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) September 5, 2024

* * *
* * *

Kennedy (I): “How can Kamala Harris reach RFK Jr. supporters? Tell the truth.” [MSNBC] • But she’s a Democrat…

* * *

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Navy Secretary Broke Law With Trump-Bashing, Pro-Biden Comments: Watchdog” [Associated Press]. “Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro broke the law by publicly endorsing the reelection of President Joe Biden and criticizing former President Donald Trump in several statements he made while on official duty overseas, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel said Thursday. In a report to the White House, the watchdog agency said Del Toro’s comments about the presidential election came in a BBC interview and when he was responding to questions after a speech in London…. The agency said Del Toro’s comments, which were made before Biden dropped out of the presidential race, violate the Hatch Act, which prohibits U.S. officials from engaging in political activity while they are on duty and from ‘using their official authority or influence to ‘” • Oh. “Election interference” that actually breaks the law. If Del Toro had been a Republican endorsing Trump, the bleating and yammering would go on for weeks.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

–>

Transmission: Covid

“Covid summer surge continuing into fall, state data show” [Minnesota Refomer]. “”The size and duration of this surge is unusual for summer,” Brown University epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo recently noted on the website formerly known as Twitter. Hospitalizations are also running about 50% higher than during the same period one year ago, suggesting an early start to this year’s COVID season.” • Gonna have to pry the “seasonal” paradigm form the cold dead hands of epidemologists…

Maskstravaganza

“Free Rein and No Guidance: Long Island’s Cop-Enforced Mask Ban Isn’t Going Great” [Mother Jones]. “Since the mask ban law was enacted, two people have been charged with misdemeanors for violating it, punishable by up to a year in jail and a $1,000 fine. In both cases, [Beth Haroules, a senior staff attorney at NYCLU] says, ‘there probably wasn’t probable cause to arrest either gentleman.’ Haroules agrees with concerns that people of color will be disproportionately targeted for wearing masks. The Nassau County Police Department, Haroules says, ‘has a documented history of inappropriate interactions with people of color.’ (It also has a troubled record on other fronts, including around residents’ civil rights.) Choosing to wear masks, as Haroules told Mother Jones she herself continues to do on public transportation, is an individual decision which mask bans threaten. Having other community members ‘enforcing the mask ban by threatening to call police,’ Haroules says, ‘really suggests that there’s a societal problem.’” • Indeed.

Vaccines

Depopulation continues apace, good job:

Shocking statistic– prior to the pandemic Indiana vaccination rates for 3 yr olds stood at 70%. Today just over half of Indiana 3 yr olds have received their routine vaccinations (polio, measles, etc.)

We are rapidly going backwards on a major predictor of life expectancy. 😞

— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) September 6, 2024

Morbidity and Mortality

“In Australia, COVID-19 deaths may have stopped decreasing” [Virology Down Under]. “The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published excellent data on deaths due to or with COVID-19 in Australia from 2022 to July 2024. Deaths dropped between 2022 and 2023, but they stopped dropping further in 2024. Is this baseline of death ‘living with COVID-19′?”

Elite Maleficence

They know #CovidIsAirborne. They just don’t want you to know:

The “palace” of Westminster. Schools and hospitals should be “palaces” too. But they’re not.

Lambert here: The figures look mildly encouraging for now, but I would expect an immediate worsening after Labor Day travel kicks in, along with grade schools, high schools, and colleges starting up. Stay safe out there!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States eased to 4.2% in August of 2024 from the October 2021 high of 4.3% in the prior month, aligning with market expectations.”

Real Estate: Speaking of offices:

Manufacturing: “As strike looms, Boeing pushes 777 jets through chaotic production in Everett” [Seattle Times (PI)]. “For months, Boeing’s leadership has claimed repeatedly that slowing the pace of jet production and renewing the focus on inspections will ensure production quality. As a potential strike by 33,000 machinists looms next week, that’s not the reality mechanics see inside Boeing’s widebody jet plant in Everett. Managers there are currently pushing partially assembled 777 jets through the assembly line, leaving tens of thousands of unfinished jobs due to defects and parts shortages to be completed out of sequence on each airplane, according to three people working directly on 777 assembly. Though the production rate of 777 jets is at a crawl, with a total of just 11 deliveries so far this year, employees describe a chaotic workplace. Mechanics are chasing airplanes through the Everett factory to install systems that should have gone in earlier and to complete rework of defects on 777 cargo planes that have traveled far down the assembly line and even outside onto the Paine Field flight line, said a veteran 777 mechanic who works on fuselages…. A longtime 777 quality inspector in Everett — who, like the other employees quoted here, requested anonymity because he feared retaliation — said Boeing has moved new inspectors onto the assembly line who are unfamiliar with the work.

‘They are not being trained, just thrown to the wolves,’ he said. Boeing personnel conducting inspections out on the airfield flight line are finding multiple structure, systems and interior defects that were missed inside the factory.” • That new CEO sure has made a big difference, hasn’t he? Meanwhile, the 777 was the one Boeing aircraft I felt safe to fly on. I guess I’ll have to start checking the build dates, if I ever take a flight again.

Manufacturing: Short “industrial knowledge”:

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 39 Fear (previous close: 46 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 6 at 2:43:52 PM ET.

Gallery

Zeitgeist Watch

“Churches Take Homeschooling in a Surprising Direction” [The American Conservative]. “t is hardly news that homeschooling has taken off around the country, especially since Covid. Over the last year alone, according to the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the number of US homeschooled students has gone from 3.6 million to 4 million—an 11 percent increase. Less well-known is the role America’s churches have played in not only facilitating the spread of homeschooling but in helping to make it a far more collaborative and even highly structured activity. By providing groups of homeschool families with a space that goes largely unused during the week and a small supervisory staff, many parishes have successfully combined online curricula with an environment more typical of a conventional public or private school… Exactly how many churches across the country offer such organized forms of homeschooling is hard to say, because only Alabama, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Tennessee, and Washington explicitly grant area churches or parochial schools the right to supervise homeschoolers.” • The least TAC could do is mention ventilation….

“Five Geek Social Fallacies” [Plausibly Deniable]. “Geek Social Fallacy #1: Ostracizers Are Evil. GSF1 is one of the most common fallacies, and one of the most deeply held. Many geeks have had horrible, humiliating, and formative experiences with ostracism, and the notion of being on the other side of the transaction is repugnant to them. In its non-pathological form, GSF1 is benign, and even commendable: it is long past time we all grew up and stopped with the junior high popularity games. However, in its pathological form, GSF1 prevents its carrier from participating in — or tolerating — the exclusion of anyone from anything, be it a party, a comic book store, or a web forum, and no matter how obnoxious, offensive, or aromatic the prospective excludee may be. As a result, nearly every geek social group of significant size has at least one member that 80% of the members hate, and the remaining 20% merely tolerate.” • Hmm.

News of the Wired

“Cough or sneeze? How the brain knows what to unleash” [Nature]. “Does a whiff of pollen trigger a sneeze or a cough? Scientists have discovered nerve cells that cause one response versus another: ‘sneeze neurons’ in the nasal passages relay sneeze signals to the brain, and separate neurons send cough messages, according to a study performed in mice.” But: “Does a whiff of pollen trigger a sneeze or a cough? Scientists have discovered nerve cells that cause one response versus another: ‘sneeze neurons’ in the nasal passages relay sneeze signals to the brain, and separate neurons send cough messages, according to a study1 performed in mice.”

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From MF:

MF writes: “Timothy (?) backlit during the Golden Hour, Hudson Valley, NY.”