{"id":99344,"date":"2025-09-12T08:03:25","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T08:03:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/12\/the-end-of-paper-bitcoin-summer\/"},"modified":"2025-09-12T08:03:25","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T08:03:25","slug":"the-end-of-paper-bitcoin-summer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/12\/the-end-of-paper-bitcoin-summer\/","title":{"rendered":"The End Of Paper Bitcoin Summer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"nitro-lazy\">As summer now turns to fall in the northern hemisphere, the stonkcoiner dream of<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/preston-pysh-changed-bitcoin-treasuries\"> bitcoinizing finance<\/a> is rapidly becoming a nightmare. The<a href=\"https:\/\/www.economicforces.xyz\/p\/paper-bitcoin-summer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> bitcoin paper summer<\/a> of issuing shares to clueless financial markets at (extreme) overvaluations to thereby buy bitcoin on the cheap is ending, not with a bang of success but with a pretty unimpressive whimper.<\/p>\n<p>The bitcoin treasury dream was nice; I even<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/bigread\/bitcoin-treasury-companies-how-to-think\"> openly admit<\/a> that it made <em>some<\/em> sense.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For a few months, Wall Street<a href=\"https:\/\/stacker.news\/items\/984224\/r\/denlillaapan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> merrily entertained<\/a> the froth and fuelled the fires. But at last, financial gravity is reasserting itself: We\u2019re all waking up from our summer fling with financial delusion, where things traded for <em>more<\/em> than what they\u2019re objectively worth. It\u2019s both wonderful and tragic to see standard corporate finance once more hold firm.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this year, our own David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc, the owner of Bitcoin Magazine,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=4vMQaNf5EPA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> told Bitcoin for Corporations, another arm of BTC Inc<\/a>, that \u201cif you can sell a dollar for more than a dollar, you do that trade all day long.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Turns out, that free-lunch strategy(!) wasn\u2019t free\u2026<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/bitcoin-asia-everything-upside-down-price\"> wiping out investor money<\/a> in the process has been a painful journey in learning that lesson.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I absolutely hate seeing the stock price go down of course- many of my closest friends and family are shareholders. But I can\u2019t control the market.<\/p>\n<p>What I can do is work for the best interest of shareholders and execute our strategy dutifully. Together we\u2019ll build a massive\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kEIokoUwev\">https:\/\/t.co\/kEIokoUwev<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 David Bailey\ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf7 $1.0mm\/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidFBailey\/status\/1963572707406352485?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">September 4, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><template data-nitro-marker-id=\"372de9843891598aa58675a785cc4349-1\"\/> <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>When <em>you<\/em> \u2014 the retail bagholder \u2014 are buying a security instead of real bitcoin, you\u2019re typically doing so at a premium (e.g., an mNAV above 1). Perversely, this is both verifiably insane \u2014 why buy a dollar for more than a dollar\u2026? \u2014 <em>and<\/em> the<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/bigread\/the-bitcoin-treasury-companies-bubble\"> very force<\/a> that animates these bitcoin treasury companies.<\/p>\n<p>Those of us looking at this with justifiable criticism presumed that the mNAVs would come down to roughly 1 via shares falling or staying flat while bitcoin\u2019s fiat price rose. Fate played a trick on us by <em>crashing<\/em> the<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/bitcoin-price-falls-nobody-knows-why\"> bitcoin price instead<\/a>. In consequence, quite a lot of these airy, financial-alchemy monstrosities fell by much greater multiples.<\/p>\n<p>Bailey\u2019s own NAKA, for which Bitcoin Magazine provides certain marketing services, has been the most amusing (and for many people around these parts, financially tragic). When NAKA announced a major,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.morningstar.com\/news\/accesswire\/1065981msn\/kindlymd-announces-5-billion-at-the-market-equity-offering-program\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> $5-billion program<\/a> of share issuance last month, the stock <em>collapsed<\/em> downward some 30% on the news \u2014 and kept tumbling thereafter, down a neat 70% from its initial pump around the<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/news\/david-bailey-and-bitcoin-native-holding-company-nakamoto-announce-merger-with-kindlymd-to-establish-bitcoin-treasury\"> announcement<\/a> of reverse-merging with KindlyMD; $NAKA has fallen a whopping 85% from its highest point in May, recently setting a new low of $3.28.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Market prices are truth, and the truth here at the dusk of treasury companies\u2019 dreamy delusion is that stuffing corporate balance sheets with retail-amassed equity and debt to acquire bitcoin was no way to the promised land.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe market price tells you whether you\u2019re right or wrong,\u201d said Moshe Shen, managing director at APAC Wintermute Trading, on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=03pPjKqRUzY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Day 1 of the recently concluded Bitcoin Asia<\/a> in Hong Kong. I guess that tells us enough about the dubious prospects of Nakamoto and other bitcoin treasury companies.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The bitcoin treasury magic ended<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The recurring pump-and-dump effect of issuing more shares for a bitcoin treasury strategy no longer come with a great pump to the share price; it falls, as sanity and traditional corporate finance would suggest. It doesn\u2019t matter<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/michael-saylors-strategy-bought-additional-bitcoin-irrespective-of-the-price\"> how many thousands of coins<\/a> Saylor\u2019s Strategy is eating, the price of MSTR <em>keeps<\/em> falling, having returned the sum total of <em>zero<\/em> percent to common shareholders since November last year; Metaplanet, having recently passed 20,000 coins in<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/business\/metaplanets-president-lays-out-plan-to-acquire-210000-bitcoin-by-2027-at-shareholder-meeting\"> hyped-up<\/a>ii<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/business\/metaplanet-raises-1-4-billion-to-expand-bitcoin-treasury-in-upsized-international-share-offering\"> celebrations<\/a> has seen its stock fall all the way back to levels not seen before the paper bitcoin summer kicked off.<\/p>\n<p>In a recent article<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/ad063ed3-4c69-40e6-a478-40e0061d1b3c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> chronicling the treasury phenomenon<\/a>, Nikou Asgari from the <em>Financial Times<\/em> remarked sourly that, \u201cThe crypto-buying strategy largely relies on issuing shares or raising debt to buy bitcoin and other tokens, hoping that this fuels share price growth.\u201d Understating the point, she continues, \u201cRaising capital becomes harder to do as company valuations fall, however.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When the share price falls, and the mNAV compresses toward 1, the free-money magic goes away. We\u2019ll find out if the hundreds of treasury companies out there have (any?)<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HodlMagoo\/status\/1964497253638492423?t=x1vt59T1n4MUUb4GD-sMxw&amp;s=19\"> viability<\/a> once the magic money-printing era is over.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Raising Capital is not a sustainable business model. Try this, &#8220;Hi I am looking to raise capital for my business. Oh, what is the business? Capital raising.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>There is a rare, extinct type of business which required endless capital raising. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hVdHoEm699\">https:\/\/t.co\/hVdHoEm699<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Josh Man (@JoshMandell6) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JoshMandell6\/status\/1964491472788738121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">September 7, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><template data-nitro-marker-id=\"372de9843891598aa58675a785cc4349-2\"\/> <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Even Tyler Evans of UTXO Management, another BTC Inc and Nakamoto-involved company, confessed as much to Asgari in that same <em>FT <\/em>article: The market \u201cgot irrationally overheated,\u201d and that the paper bitcoin summer \u201cwas the peak for both hype and for the number of companies launching.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At the tail end of paper bitcoin summer, we see reality reasserting itself, dramatically recovering from the collective delusion that market prices on the world\u2019s most liquid markets could veer so far off mNAV course.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a bold prediction: <strong>In a year\u2019s time, bitcoin treasury companies won\u2019t be a thing<\/strong>. Most of the lower-tiered ones won\u2019t survive, and will instead spit out the coins they so gluttonously and recklessly gobbled up. The ones with serious moat and competent management teams, like Strategy or Metaplanet, will survive, but see their mNAV shrink to a sliver above zero, where they logically belong.<\/p>\n<p>The paper bitcoin summer has ended, and I for one couldn\u2019t be more excited to see these nightmares go back to the ethereal dreamlands from whence they came.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/the-end-of-paper-bitcoin-summer\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As summer now turns to fall in the northern hemisphere, the stonkcoiner dream of bitcoinizing finance is rapidly becoming a nightmare. The bitcoin paper summer<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99345,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99344"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99344\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}