Yves here. The importance of the very long in the conception\/negotiation but finally cinched Russian Siberia 2 pipeline to China has not gotten much attention outside the YouTube anti-globalist community. This is a massive project that will increase China\u2019s energy security and help it secure a cost advantage. However, I find it odd to see Korybko depict Russia as dependent in this agreement. Russia is the supplier of a critical product. And Russia does not depend on energy-related revenues to fund its budget. They account for only about 20% of receipts and my understanding is that includes domestic sales.<\/p>\n
Keep in mind also that this agreement comes not just from the immediate Trump aggression against Russia\u2019s trading partners, but ultimately the long-standing Western campaign against Russia, particularly the shock and awe sanctions and the destruction of Nordstream 2. <\/p>\n
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO,<\/i><\/b><\/a> which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website<\/a><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n Trump\u2019s escalatory signals in Ukraine, the Indo-US split that he induced, and the attendant alleviation of the Sino-Indo security dilemma freed Russia up to clinch the long-negotiated Power of Siberia 2 deal.<\/strong><\/p>\n Trump\u2019s Eurasian grand strategy has sought to preemptively avert Russia\u2019s potentially disproportionate dependence on China in order to avoid having its natural resources turbocharge the superpower trajectory of the US\u2019 only systemic rival. In pursuit of this, the US envisaged entering into a resource-centric strategic partnership with Russia upon the end of the Ukrainian Conflict<\/a>, expecting that this shared goal would incentivize Putin into agreeing to significant territorial and\/or security concessions.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s unwillingness or inability to coerce Zelensky<\/a> into any of Putin\u2019s demanded concessions paired with increasingly<\/a> concerning<\/a> reports<\/a> about plans to deploy NATO to Ukraine to spook Putin into ditching his balancing act and pivoting to China. The successful clinching of their long-negotiated deal<\/a> over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which will nearly double<\/a> Russia\u2019s gas exports to China to ~100 bcm a year and at a cheaper price<\/a> than the EU receives, signifies the failure of Trump\u2019s Eurasian grand strategy.<\/p>\n Putin might have held out for longer had Trump not inadvertently catalyzed the incipient Sino-Indo rapprochement via his hypocritically punitive tariffs<\/a> that aim to derail India\u2019s rise as a Great Power<\/a>. That spooked India into patching up its ties with China, which alleviated their security dilemma that the US was exploiting to divide-and-rule them. This in turn reduced India\u2019s worries about closer Russian-Chinese energy cooperation that it previously feared could lead to Russia becoming China\u2019s junior partner.<\/p>\n It was never officially voiced, but astute observers and those who\u2019ve talked to Indian thinkers know that India was worried that China might leverage its influence over Russia to get it to curtail or cut off military exports to India, therefore giving China a pivotal edge in their border dispute. The Trump-induced Indo-US split and attendant alleviation of the Sino-Indo security dilemma freed Russia up to clinch the Power of Siberia 2 deal without fear of spooking India into the US\u2019 arms and thus dividing-and-ruling Eurasia.<\/p>\n The growing convergence between BRICS and the SCO<\/a>, which aim to gradually reform global governance via their complementary efforts to accelerate multipolar processes, is due in no small part to India\u2019s embrace of both in response to new strategic threats from the US. Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s first visit to China in seven years to attend the SCO Leaders\u2019 Summit, during which time he held an important bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping, is expected to lead to a new normal in Sino-Indo ties.<\/p>\n The roots of their tensions haven\u2019t been resolved, but Russia expects that they\u2019ll now be better managed, ergo why it clinched its deal with China over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline right after also concluding that the US won\u2019t try to help it obtain any of what it wants from Ukraine. To review, Trump signaled escalatory intent in Ukraine reportedly as the quid pro quo<\/a> for the US-EU trade deal<\/a> and then Sino-Indo ties improved as Indo-US ones worsened, thus making Power of Siberia 2 politically possible.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s foreign policy towards Eurasia has therefore indisputably failed. His team\u2019s misguided approach towards Russia and India in demanding too much of them led to those two and China working out their differences<\/a>, which exist amongst themselves bilaterally but also regarding their ties with the US, and consequently accelerated multipolar processes at the expense of the US\u2019 unipolar interests. The Rubicon has clearly been crossed after this latest pipeline deal and it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess how the US will respond.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/00-siberia-2.jpg\")
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