..aaaand, we\u2019re back at it again \u2014 a misbehaving bitcoin price<\/a>. Sunday evening bitcoin flash-crash dipped a red candle the size of Jupiter; and more eerily, it kept dropping down on Monday morning, touching below $111,000.<\/p>\n Now, around here in the land of bitcoin price therapy, we say that nobody knows why prices<\/a> move. But sometimes<\/em>, we do\u2026 though not as well as we would like. Today, I discuss two things: the last 24 hours\u2019 worth of shenanigans and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s remarks late last week.\u00a0<\/p>\n Late Sunday (European time) was pretty disgusting:<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to say \u201cnobody knows\u201d when a chart looks like that; somebody<\/em> knows what happened to plunge the bitcoin price some 3,000 in a matter of minutes. If it\u2019s not a specific macro event<\/a>, like last week, the only thing eating through order books like this are a) massive<\/em> orders, and \u2014 what amounts to the same thing \u2014 b) mass<\/em> liquidations.\u00a0<\/p>\n Yesterday, there was some indication of both:\u00a0<\/p>\n or\u2026<\/p>\n This is an underdeveloped market, and it\u2019s ridiculous how small we are and how illiquid the bitcoin market is: still<\/em> able to get wacked around by individual market actors. (As always in Bitcoinland, there is some schmuck willing to turn<\/a> a verifiably bad<\/em> thing into a good<\/em> thing.)\u00a0<\/p>\n The 2.5% instant drop in bitcoin price last night might be a one-off due to a whale selling or some liquidations, but the gradual, diagonally down movement during the night and Monday morning (bitcoin price crashing below $111,000) is much more worrying. Ignore the big, noisy whale\u2026 wth is happening? Why are we slowly dying<\/em> when we should be winning, son!<\/em><\/p>\n All the macro arrows of the world are pointing in the right direction: Why is the bitcoin price trading down<\/em>, in this<\/em> range, when any sane assessment puts it double or triple from here\u2026? (And no, we didn\u2019t<\/em> drop below $111,000 as<\/em> or because<\/em> or in relation whatsoever to Metaplanet announcing buys<\/a>).<\/p>\n Price does whatever it wants; shitcos do whatever they please.<\/p>\n Bitcoin price therapy definitely<\/em> needed: Bitcoin price just does whatever it wants, with no regard for sanity or rational assessment. Not a care in the world for the most bullish of bullish circumstances.\u00a0Maximum pain, I\u2019ve heard it said<\/strong>. Not even Saylor\u2019s million-dollar-cost averaging made much of a dent:<\/p>\n One of these magic tea leaves reading techniques (128-day moving average), tells us our Bitcoin Magazine Pro team<\/a> today, is at $108,500\u2026 so we\u2019ll probably go there. Saylor et al<\/a> have already sold their kidneys and chairs, so I wonder what\u2019s left.<\/p>\n More interesting\/terrifying is that it keeps falling afterwards, hitting new lows. Our most scoop-like explanation is that all of these shitcos \u2014 of which Mr. Bailey, the owner of BTC Inc, runs one, having recently incinerated some $41 million \u2014 gobbling up all these coins during the spring couldn\u2019t hold on to them and are now burping them back out again; some, in liquidation-infested red candles, and others in slow, grindy, time-weighted price.<\/p>\n A certain Cypherpunk OG seems aware of the structure:<\/p>\n have they not heard of TWAPs? do they not like money? such clumsy market activity. normally people with that kind of money would be smarter.<\/p>\n \u2014 Adam Back (@adam3us) August 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Sometimes we actually (sort of) do<\/em> know what happened in markets \u2014 like last week, Aug 22, at 10 am Eastern: Released on Fed website was the statement\/upgrade to Fed\u2019s monetary policy framework<\/a>. It was widely interpreted as future easing of monetary policy in the cards. How<\/em> do we know this? Because every (hard) asset jump on the minute, and the dollar index fell<\/em>:<\/p>\n This is the kind of shit that moves markets, and the instant<\/em>, large moves make us pretty confident that THIS is the cause.<\/p>\n (for reference: 9.59, DXY = 98.7; two minutes later, 98.15; another minute, 97.8. That\u2019s 1%, in a blink\u2026 That\u2019s a big move for the DXY!)<\/p>\n Now we\u2019ve located the source \u2014 Powell\u2019s speech and\/or the release of the statement. Which<\/em> bit of his statement is what shocked markets so?<\/p>\n What happens on releases like this \u2014 or inflation numbers or unemployment by BLS \u2014 is that simple trading algorithms scrape the websites for instant updates and make a split-second assessment, often with second-order trading effects following. The move itself often get reversed ten, twenty, thirty minutes later when human and intelligent assessment have gotten involved. It was all a nothingburger, after all.\u00a0<\/em>That wasn\u2019t the case this time, as the bitcoin price traded high over the weekend (until someone ruined the fun on Sunday\u2026).<\/p>\n Powell\u2019s statements last week revealed that<\/p>\n \u201cIn the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside \u2014 a challenging situation\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Yet Powell concluded that those risks \u201cmay warrant adjusting our policy stance.\u201d<\/p>\n In the minutes and hours after the speech and the release of the statement, bitcoin price peaked at $117,000, before falling back to $116,000; that\u2019s market participants dissecting and assessing, organically, what this new state means.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s where my \u201cNobody knows why\u201d take still<\/em> holds: Nobody knows which part<\/em> of Powell\u2019s statement mattered, since new information is always mixing and merging with the expectation<\/em> market participants had going in \u2014 and we can only rarely tell what those were. What we\u2019re doing when we\u2019re playing these catch-up, ad hoc, after-the-case explanations is playing post-rationalization games<\/a>. Not that impressive.\u00a0<\/p>\n Altogether pathetic. We need Bitcoiners rich and flourishing, not impoverished and distraught.<\/p>\n Bitcoin price therapy out. See you all in Hong Kong<\/a> for Bitcoin Asia<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nAn Unruly Bitcoin Price<\/h2>\n
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Bitcoin Price and Powell\u2019s Bowel<\/h2>\n
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