{"id":97663,"date":"2025-08-01T06:57:50","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T06:57:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/01\/trump-is-hellbent-on-derailing-indias-rise-as-a-great-power\/"},"modified":"2025-08-01T06:57:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T06:57:50","slug":"trump-is-hellbent-on-derailing-indias-rise-as-a-great-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/01\/trump-is-hellbent-on-derailing-indias-rise-as-a-great-power\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Is Hellbent on Derailing India\u2019s Rise as a Great Power"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Yves here. Trump is such a chaos generator that it\u2019s hard to keep up with all the damage he is trying to do. He\u2019s in the process of completing his trade \u201cdeals.\u201d Trump seems to have a crude hierarchy of punishment, with an official level of 15% being the least abusive and (so far) 50% the highest\u2026to be inflicted on Brazil, a particular focus of Trump ire, <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/international\/5428461-brazil-lula-trump-tariffs-trade-war-bolsonaro\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">explicitly due to its prosecution of Trump bestie Jair Bolsonaro<\/a>. Oh, and there aren\u2019t valid trade grounds for tariffs since Brazil runs a surplus with the US. <\/p>\n<p>But it turns out that 50% level for Brazil that Trump got into the headlines is a headfake. From Bloomberg in <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/lula-defiance-pays-off-trump-113119274.html\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Lula\u2019s Defiance Pays Off as Trump Blinks on Brazil Tariffs<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva\u2019s defiant response to Donald Trump\u2019s 50% tariff threat was validated Wednesday \u2014 at least in the short term \u2014 with markets and businesses breathing a collective sigh of relief at the long list of exemptions to the levies.<\/p>\n<p>Some of Brazil\u2019s biggest exports to the US, from civilian aircrafts to orange juice, won\u2019t face increases beyond the 10% rate previously imposed, softening the blow of tariffs Trump now plans to implement next week instead of Friday.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Oh, and these \u201cdeals\u201d don\u2019t even rise to the level of napkin doodles. From former ambassador Chas Freeman on Judge Napolitano, starting at 3:50\u2033<\/p>\n<p><iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/1vW_kmwiL5s?si=sFrwcbrtpd1iwx17\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen=\"\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Freeman: Well, there\u2019s no diplomacy. Basically  this administration is managing international relations through the equivalent of extortion, bullying threats.We\u2019ve just seen this  dramatically illustrated by the unequal treaties they\u2019re called that Japan and the European Union have succumbed to. First of all, they\u2019re not professionally reached. There is no text, there\u2019s no agreed text on these trade deals. They\u2019re entirely oral. They\u2019re vague. They\u2019re subject in both cases to additional American actions as yet unspecified with regard to specific categories of goods. Both basically Japan and the EU have been forced to accept u a 15% across the board tariff as a permanent condition of their relationship with the United their relationships with the United States\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>[7:40] Napolitano: You said that these agreements have not been reduced to writing. How can you have an agreement of this magnitude not reduced to writing so we don\u2019t know what\u2019s in there?<\/p>\n<p>Freeman: Well, they\u2019re not agreements. That\u2019s the point. They are  capitulations by foreigners to bullying. Um there\u2019s no meeting of the minds. There\u2019s no mutual benefit. For example, Europeans are pointing out and by the way, they using the term unequal treaties to parallel the kind of impositions that were made on China in the 19th century by imperialist powers including us um which of course ended up causing a revolution in China, two revolutions in China  and knocking China for a loop for almost 150 years. Europeans are saying, pointing out that  they agreed that everything they sell to the United States will be subject to a 15% import tax by Americans but that and  they will not they will not have any import tax on American imports imports from us. So they\u2019ve given up um a lot of trade in return for absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Now to India. Our Jerri-Lynn would have been all over the fine points of India\u2019s efforts to deal with Trump, but this has not been a focus of mine, so I can\u2019t evaluate Korybko\u2019s thesis. Since Trump likes to stomp on pretty much everyone and everything (except Mr. Market), his hostility towards India, which has engaged in the sin of refusing to ditch Russia so as to better toady up to the US, might be reason alone for Trump to make particularly nasty noises and bruit about a 25% tariffs threat. His anger and this action might also be the result of feeling cornered by Lindsay Graham, who has insisted on his bone-crushing secondary sanctions, which would be extremely damaging to the US, and claims he has enough votes to beat a veto. Perhaps the<\/p>\n<p>Korybko suggests that there might be some  geostrategic logic to what Trump is attempting with India. Reader sanity checks welcomed. <\/p>\n<p><b><i>By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from <a href=\"https:\/\/english.mgimo.ru\/basic-facts\/overview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><b><i>MGIMO,<\/i><\/b><\/a> which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/von-der-leyen-just-subordinated-the\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"> his website<\/a><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/00-India.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-296157\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/00-India.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/00-India-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/00-India-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/00-India-624x468.jpg 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<p><strong>If Trump\u2019s tariffs don\u2019t coerce India into becoming a US vassal, which the US would then exploit to coerce concessions from China in advance of its ultimate goal of restoring unipolarity, then he might settle for letting China subordinate India instead as part of the \u201cG2\u201d\/\u201cChimerica\u201d scenario.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Trump raged against India on Wednesday in a series of posts <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TrumpDailyPosts\/status\/1950547380320801137\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">announcing<\/a> his 25% tariff on its exports on the pretext of its trade barriers and close ties with Russia. He then announced an oil deal with Pakistan and <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/trump_repost\/status\/1950646639099772935?s=46\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">predicted<\/a> that \u201cmaybe they\u2019ll be selling Oil to India some day!\u201d His final post described India\u2019s economy as \u201cdead\u201d and claimed that \u201cWe have done very little business with India\u201d despite it being the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndtv.com\/business-news\/india-remains-the-fastest-growing-economy-morgan-stanley-8806132\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">fastest-growing major economy<\/a> in the world and bilateral trade amounting to <a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/countries-regions\/south-central-asia\/india\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">nearly $130 billion<\/a> in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>India\u2019s Ministry of Commerce &amp; Industry <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ItsShubhangi\/status\/1950581858288210074\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">calmly responded<\/a> to Trump\u2019s tariff announcement by reaffirming its commitment to talks and declaring that the state \u201cwill take all steps necessary to secure our national interest\u201d, which likely infuriated him since he probably expected Modi to anxiously call him. The favorable trade deal that he clinched <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/fact-sheets\/2025\/07\/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-secures-unprecedented-u-s-japan-strategic-trade-and-investment-agreement\/\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">with Japan<\/a> last week and the <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/von-der-leyen-just-subordinated-the\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">totally lopsided one<\/a> with the EU that followed emboldened him into playing hardball with India upon thinking that it\u2019ll fall into line too.<\/p>\n<p>The US wants India to open its agricultural and dairy markets, stop its massive import of discounted Russian oil, and rapidly diversify away from Russian military equipment. Complying with the first demand would be disastrous for the <a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/business\/india-business\/indias-46-of-agricultural-workforce-contributes-only-18-to-gdp\/articleshow\/115656918.cms\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">46% of the Indian workforce<\/a> employed in these industries, however, while the second would risk decelerating its economic growth and the third would make its security dependent on the US. The end result would therefore derail India\u2019s rise as a Great Power and turn it into a US vassal.<\/p>\n<p>Trump is hellbent on doing precisely that, which is the continuation of Biden\u2019s policy, as explained below:<\/p>\n<p>* 13 December 2022: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/will-the-us-sell-india-out-to-china\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Will The US Sell India Out To China To Sweeten The Deal For A Sino-American New D\u00e9tente?<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>* 14 May 2025: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/there-might-be-a-method-to-the-madness\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">There Might Be A Method To The Madness Of Trump Unexpectedly Damaging Indo-US Ties<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>* 16 May 2025: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/trumps-desired-return-to-bagram-airbase\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Trump\u2019s Desired Return To Bagram Airbase Could Reshape South Asian Geopolitics<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>* 7 June 2025: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/the-us-is-once-again-trying-to-subordinate\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">The US Is Once Again Trying To Subordinate India<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>* 13 July 2025: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/thealtworld.com\/andrew_korybko\/the-us-pakistani-rapprochement-could-have-far-reaching-geostrategic-consequences\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">The US-Pakistani Rapprochement Could Have Far-Reaching Geostrategic Consequences<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>These analyses will now be summarized for the reader\u2019s convenience and placed in the current context.<\/p>\n<p>In brief, India\u2019s Russian-assisted rise as a Great Power hastens the coming of <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/towards-tri-multipolarity-the-golden\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">tri<\/a>\u2013<a href=\"https:\/\/russiancouncil.ru\/en\/analytics-and-comments\/columns\/asian-kaleidoscope\/tri-multipolarity-should-become-the-next-big-idea-in-russian-indian-relations\/\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">multipolarity<\/a> that\u2019ll in turn help midwife complex multipolarity, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of ever restoring US-led unipolarity or the short-lived period of informal <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/TKRdf\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Sino-US bi-multipolarity<\/a> (\u201cG2\u201d\/\u201cChimerica\u201d). Russia\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/korybko-to-azerbaijani-media-all\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">special<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/20-constructive-critiques-about-russias\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">operation<\/a> and the West\u2019s reaction to it revolutionized International Relations and created the opportunity for India to make up for lost time in becoming a Great Power with <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/korybko-to-rajagopalan-indias-principled\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">truly<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/russias-top-diplomat-in-delhi-praised\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">global<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/jaishankars-article-for-the-economist\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">influence<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The US responded to these developments by attempting to subordinate India via <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/soros-declaration-of-hybrid-war-against\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">election<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/russia-gave-voice-to-indias-concerns\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">meddling<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/a-us-commission-dishonestly-put-a\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">infowars<\/a>, and dual geopolitical pivots to Bangladesh (whose prior long-serving leader it <a href=\"https:\/\/thealtworld.com\/andrew_korybko\/analyzing-the-regime-change-sequence-that-toppled-bangladeshs-long-serving-prime-minister\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">helped depose<\/a>) and Pakistan to pile on the pressure in pursuit of this goal or to contain India if it still refuses to concede. Complementary elements of this pressure campaign include political support for <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/wapos-indian-assassination-article\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Delhi-designated \u201cKhalistani\u201d separatists-terrorists<\/a> and spring 2023\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/an-indian-professor-shared-some-crucial\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">violent ethno-religious unrest<\/a> in <a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/korybko-to-bloombergs-rebecca-choong\" rel=\" nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Manipur<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>If Trump\u2019s tariffs don\u2019t coerce India into becoming a US vassal, which the US would then exploit to coerce concessions from China in advance of its ultimate goal of restoring unipolarity, then he might settle for letting China subordinate India instead as part of the \u201cG2\u201d\/\u201cChimerica\u201d scenario. Either way, he doesn\u2019t expect India\u2019s rise as a Great Power to continue due to the zero-sum dilemma in which the tariffs were meant to place it between becoming the US\u2019 or China\u2019s vassal, but India might still surprise everyone.<\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-alignleft\"><a href=\"#\" rel=\"nofollow\" onclick=\"window.print(); return false;\" title=\"Printer Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;-webkit-box-shadow:none; -moz-box-shadow: none; box-shadow:none; padding:0; margin:0\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\" alt=\"Print Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2025\/08\/trump-is-hellbent-on-derailing-indias-rise-as-a-great-power.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yves here. Trump is such a chaos generator that it\u2019s hard to keep up with all the damage he is trying to do. He\u2019s in<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":97664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,183],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-97663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-spotlight"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97663"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97663\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}