{"id":96137,"date":"2025-06-22T06:01:55","date_gmt":"2025-06-22T06:01:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/22\/us-attacks-iran-start-of-a-long-war\/"},"modified":"2025-06-22T06:01:55","modified_gmt":"2025-06-22T06:01:55","slug":"us-attacks-iran-start-of-a-long-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/22\/us-attacks-iran-start-of-a-long-war\/","title":{"rendered":"US Attacks Iran: Start of a Long War?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>We do not know much save the fact that the US attacked the three Iranian nuclear sites, at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. There was what amounted to a short warning via lots of chatter anticipating an imminent attack; I even e-mailed a colleague that it looked as if Trump was going to unleash the dogs of war at his 6:00 PM Situation Room meeting on Saturday.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-22-at-11.45.13\u202fAM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"334\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-294373\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-22-at-11.45.13\u202fAM.png 1448w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-22-at-11.45.13\u202fAM-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-22-at-11.45.13\u202fAM-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-22-at-11.45.13\u202fAM-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-22-at-11.45.13\u202fAM-624x346.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8U.S. strike on the Fordow site. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Wgc7egGAqj\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/Wgc7egGAqj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 From Iran\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7 (@A_M_R_M1) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/A_M_R_M1\/status\/1936587178026430783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">June 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As you see, Trump declared that all the strikes had been fully successful. He also said more was coming if Iran did not negotiate, as in surrender to US demands.<\/p>\n<p>As indicated, we are deep in fog of war terrain. For instance:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u2757\ufe0f\u2757\ufe0fTrump&#8217;s Truth Social post after striking three Iranian nuclear sites!<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Fordow Is Gone&#8221;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">#Iran<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranIsraelConflict?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">#IranIsraelConflict<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranVsIsrael?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">#IranVsIsrael<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IsraelIranConflict?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">#IsraelIranConflict<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IsraeliranWar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">#IsraeliranWar<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ex6dfHYb4B\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/Ex6dfHYb4B<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/e9RXSAI3aV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/e9RXSAI3aV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 The Third Eye (@thethirdeyereal) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/thethirdeyereal\/status\/1936640873195868568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">June 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iran\u2019s underground Fordow nuclear site isn\u2019t just secure, it\u2019s nearly untouchable. Analysts say it\u2019d take 10 B-2 bombers striking in under 3 minutes to even dent it. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CJYlFcYgTF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/CJYlFcYgTF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 \u0641\u06cc\u0644\u0688 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0644 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u06cc\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0634\u06c1\u0627\u062f\u062a\u06c1 (@safi_wajahat) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/safi_wajahat\/status\/1936640870637285728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">June 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It appears Iran was unable to impede the entry of US jets. Alternatively, in the light of Iran\u2019s claims that it had removed nuclear assets from these sites ( the enriched uranium and perhaps the centrifuges), a much less likely but possible scenario is that Iran decided not to contest the entry since if their claims are correct, America would have wasted firepower on now-unimportant targets. Better to husband air defenses for more critical targets and to lull the Americans in a false sense of security. Note that, in a much-watch video below, Trita Parsi points out that Iran does not need large sites for its nuclear development program. It can distribute the activity across many locations. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">NEW: Senior Iranian Official Says Iran Moved All Enriched Uranium, Including 60% Natanz Stockpile, to Safe Sites Ahead of Israeli Strikes<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIsrael hit Natanz, Isfahan\u2019s nuclear facility, Khondab, and Arak, but those sites were already evacuated. All the materials they were\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/U6owuTKxAb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/U6owuTKxAb<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/18DFbzIgpm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/18DFbzIgpm<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DropSiteNews\/status\/1935809910299926955?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">June 19, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/36TcEFC7Hc8?si=vvc9ezXDTRfxmHKn\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Larry Johnson takes a different but somewhat optimistic view, that Trump has a pattern of making showy but deliberately not very damaging attacks. From his post:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>To understand what happened today in Iran, you need to recall the last two times Trump claimed to have carried out massive strikes to derail alleged <em>weapons of mass destruction<\/em>. I am talking about Syria:<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"header-anchor-post\">1. <strong>April 6\u20137, 2017<\/strong> \u2013 <em>Shayrat Airbase Tomahawk Strike<\/em><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Date &amp; Time:<\/strong> April 6, 2017 (evening ET); missile impact around April 7, 4:40\u202fa.m. Syria time<\/li>\n<li><strong>What happened:<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Trump directed the launch of <strong>59 Tomahawk cruise missiles<\/strong> from U.S. destroyers targeting the Shayrat airbase\u2014the launch site for the April\u202f4 sarin attack on civilians in Khan Shaykhun.<\/li>\n<li>This was Trump\u2019s <strong>first military action<\/strong> directly against Assad\u2019s forces, intended to punish chemical weapons use.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"header-anchor-post\">2. <strong>April 13\u201314, 2018<\/strong> \u2013 <em>Coalition Precision Strikes<\/em><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Date:<\/strong> April 13, 2018 (U.S. time); strikes executed early April 14 Syria time<\/li>\n<li><strong>Details:<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>In collaboration with the U.K. and France, Trump ordered <strong>precision strikes\u2014chiefly missiles<\/strong>\u2014against three Syrian chemical weapons facilities, responding to the Douma chemical attack on April 7.<\/li>\n<li>Strike reached sites near Damascus and Homs, with approximately <strong>105 missiles<\/strong> used.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Now, here is what actually took place behind the scenes. How do I know? Can\u2019t tell you that. The US alerted the Russians in advance to our intentions and plans. The warning was given with enough advance notice that Russian and Syrian assets were able to vacate those locations. All Trump did was launch an expensive fireworks show that cost millions of dollars and blew up some sand dunes.<\/p>\n<p>Given that history, I suggest everyone pour themselves a big scotch or vodka and relax. Initial reports almost always are grossly exaggerated. Here is one possibility: Trump may be doing another Houthi spin\u2026 you know, declare that Iran has capitulated and then pull US forces out of harms way. Iran has been extremely patient to a lengthy list of US provocations<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Scott Ritter <a href=\"https:\/\/scottritter.substack.com\/p\/ritters-rant-009-wheres-the-beef?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=6892&amp;post_id=166504169&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=false&amp;r=bzs8&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">has a new video up<\/a> which we cannot embed, but it\u2019s only six minutes. The key point is in the subhead:<a href=\"https:\/\/scottritter.substack.com\/p\/ritters-rant-009-wheres-the-beef?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=6892&amp;post_id=166504169&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=false&amp;r=bzs8&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> President Trump just sent the most sophisticated weapons in the US arsenal to bomb three empty sites in Iran. Why?<\/a> He adds that this was not a serious attack and did not advance US security interests. It seems designed to limit Iran\u2019s retaliatory assets because the US used only assets out of theater, as in not (supposedly) implicating US bases in the region. He argues that this was show intended to save Trump\u2019s face. <\/p>\n<p>However, Israel is not Syria. Indian media has been reporting on the increasing damage that Iran\u2019s daily and sometimes more than once a day bombings are inflicting. Despite Trump\u2019s bluster about the need for Iran to return to the capitulation, um, negotiating, table, this action does not stop Iranian strikes, which look to be reaching the point of  serious damage. For instance:<\/p>\n<p><iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/OomeitBftDk?si=sIDaTGtZyXPrIVkF\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen=\"\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>And:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Haifa water systems CRATER after new Iranian ballistic missiles slam Israel&#8217;s biggest port <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HRVUoQ2lpn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/HRVUoQ2lpn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 RT (@RT_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RT_com\/status\/1936654809593221415?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">June 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Israel has put itself in a PR conundrum by seeking regime change in Iran and depicting Iranian strikes as largely unsuccessful. But we know from the Washington Post as of 3 days ago that on then-current trajectories, Israel would run out of air defense missiles in 10 to 12 days. So Israel is already taking serious hits and is not far from being completely exposed to Iranian strikes. What then? The US is going to be under acute pressure to stop Israel\u2019s pummeling.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Now perhaps Israel will stand down in the wake of the US attack. Iran\u2019s position has been they would stop shooting when Israel stopped shooting.<\/p>\n<p>But failing that, despite Trump apparently hoping a showy strike would be sufficient to save his manhood, if Israel does not back down, the US will be forced to go up the escalatory ladder. I have said the probable next play would be to pummel Tehran. Israel brought Hezbollah to heel, not by defeating it militarily, but by inflicting so much punishment on the capital that Hezbollah, which is also a political actor in Lebanon, had to stand down. It may attempt a replay in Iran or alternatively hope that civilian deaths and infrastructure damage will produce its hoped-for public revolt.<\/p>\n<p>Having said it would retaliate and hit US bases all over the Middle East if the US attacked, what does Iran do now? Iran has tended to be very cautious and under-react, and then a bit late. This war is getting too hot for that to be a great idea since the US cannot be seen to abandon Israel.<\/p>\n<p>At a minimum, Iran intensifies its pounding of Israel. Perhaps it engages in an out-of-the-box move and hits the British airbase in Cyprus, which has been supporting strikes on Gaza. One YouTuber said the US base in Qatar had been evacuated, so perhaps that is the immediate tit for tat.<\/p>\n<p>Since it seems vanishingly unlikely that the Trump will be unable to stand up to calls for escalation when Iran keeps pummeling Israel, where will Iran go if the US makes a strike intended to do serious damage? If Iran successfully parries that, perhaps not much. But otherwise, Iran\u2019s best next move would seem to be to block the Strait of Hormuz. They can loudly announce that they\u2019ll reopen it as soon as Israel and the US stop their attacks.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, as Alexander Mercouris pointed out yesterday, this attack means Donald Trump\u2019s presidency is over, at least in terms of getting much further with his domestic agenda. This war will become his tar baby. <\/p>\n<p>This is a tragic mistake, but our dogged support of Israel and Netanyahu\u2019s wiliness and personal survival focus got us here. As the movie version of Elizabeth said when rejecting the advice of ministers to attack Spain, \u201cI do not like wars. They have uncertain outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Or to again invoke a Sun Tsu dictum that yours truly has applied regularly to Trump: \u201cAll tactics and no strategy is the noise before the defeat.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>____<\/p>\n<p><sup>1<\/sup> In case you are late to this story, the US, after seeming willing to accept a JCPOA 2.0, fell in with Israel hardliners, demanding that Iran abandon not just all nuclear enrichment but also effectively prostrate itself by also giving up its ballistic missile stocks and development. Iran has consistently said no to these demands, the latest at a bizarre meeting ginned up last week by European leaders with Iran\u2019s foreign minister Araghchi. Team Trump attempted a peculiar last-ditch outreach. Per  Axios in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/06\/21\/trump-iran-turkey-negotiations-israel-war\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Scoop: Trump\u2019s back channel to Iran failed after supreme leader went dark<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/politics-policy\/donald-trump\" target=\"_self\" data-vars-link-text=\"President Trump\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/politics-policy\/donald-trump\" data-vars-content-id=\"19437b30-6d50-4ce5-9762-93f38bf28aa5\" data-vars-headline=\"Scoop: Trump's back channel to Iran failed after supreme leader went dark\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">President Trump<\/a> and Turkish President <a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/04\/08\/trump-netanyahu-israel-turkey-erdoan\" target=\"_self\" data-vars-link-text=\"Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/04\/08\/trump-netanyahu-israel-turkey-erdoan\" data-vars-content-id=\"19437b30-6d50-4ce5-9762-93f38bf28aa5\" data-vars-headline=\"Scoop: Trump's back channel to Iran failed after supreme leader went dark\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan<\/a> quietly sought to arrange a meeting between senior U.S. and Iranian officials in Istanbul this week amid <a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/06\/14\/israel-iran-war-us-nuclear-program-trump\" target=\"_self\" data-vars-link-text=\"Israel's escalating war with Iran\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/06\/14\/israel-iran-war-us-nuclear-program-trump\" data-vars-content-id=\"19437b30-6d50-4ce5-9762-93f38bf28aa5\" data-vars-headline=\"Scoop: Trump's back channel to Iran failed after supreme leader went dark\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Israel\u2019s escalating war with Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>But the effort collapsed when Iran\u2019s supreme leader \u2014 in hiding due to fears of assassination \u2014 couldn\u2019t be reached to approve it, according to three U.S. officials and a source with direct knowledge of the matter.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This ploy goes firmly in \u201cHow dumb do Americans think other people are?\u201d terrain. The leaked story that Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei was meant as a threat, that but for the good graces of Hair Furore, Khamenei might well be dead. The mercurial Trump could easily change his mind as Iranian defiance continues.<\/p>\n<p>And let us not forget that Israel has made a point of assassinating negotiators and top leaders who let their security procedures lapse during negotiations. It has been reported that Israel tracked Hamas chief negotiator Ismail Haniyeh to the guest house in Tehran where he was martyred. Similarly, it\u2019s been reported that Israel was able to track communications after an negotiating session with Hezbollah to locate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to an apartment in Beirut (apparently with other top Hezbollah officials involved in the negotiations) and flattened the entire apartment block. <\/p>\n<p>Recall also that the US assassinated Iranian general Solemani when he was in Iran to conduct negotiations, and supposedly had a physically protected status via operating in that capacity. <\/p>\n<p>So even if Israel were to uncharacteristically respect international norms and not assassinate him en route to and from Istanbul, they would track him upon his return with the hope not just of eliminating him but also other members of the leadership that he would brief on what happened. <\/p>\n<p>Keep in mind also that Khamenei has handed over authority for operating the war to the top general of the IRGC, so the silence may also signal that Khamenei sees the time for talking as past. <\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-alignleft\"><a href=\"#\" rel=\"nofollow\" onclick=\"window.print(); return false;\" title=\"Printer Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;-webkit-box-shadow:none; -moz-box-shadow: none; box-shadow:none; padding:0; margin:0\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\" alt=\"Print Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2025\/06\/us-attacks-iran-start-of-a-long-war.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We do not know much save the fact that the US attacked the three Iranian nuclear sites, at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. There was what<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96138,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,183],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-96137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-spotlight"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}