The fog of war is thick over the current hostilities between Israel and Iran, but the intense interest in short-term outcomes of this regional war may be obscuring the ultimate prospects for Israel as negative trends undermine its militaristic foreign policy. I will describe these trends and the likely outcome.<\/p>\n
Loss of International Support<\/strong><\/p>\n The cruel irony of a state born out of the holocaust of the European Jews ruthlessly inflicting death and destruction on Palestinians in Gaza is turning world opinion against Israel. The vast destruction and indiscriminate killing in Gaza has indelibly stained Israel\u2019s reputation. Surveys indicate substantial worldwide deterioration of support for Israel. Public outrage is translating into diminished political support from governments. Votes against Israel in the UN are increasingly lopsided, with only the U.S. Security Council veto sparing Israel from adverse SC resolutions. While the majority of Israelis continue to support the brutal destruction of Gaza, Israeli leaders stand accused of war crimes<\/a> by the International Criminal Court.<\/p>\n Gaza destroyed \u2013 The whole world is watching<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 2025 Pew Survey<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n As international opinion turns against Israel, the pressure for boycotts, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) will grow, likely following a scenario similar to the economic campaign against the South African apartheid regime.<\/p>\n Internal Political Divisions<\/strong><\/p>\n Although the current hostilities have rallied Israelis behind the government,\u00a0Israeli society is sharply divided along multiple lines that shape its politics and national identity. Key divisions include:<\/p>\n Ideological<\/strong>: A dominant right-wing bloc favors nationalism, settlements, and judicial limits, while a weaker left-wing supports civil liberties and a two-state solution.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Religious<\/strong>: Secular Jews clash with religious and ultra-Orthodox communities over military service, education, and the role of Jewish law in public life.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Ethnic<\/strong>: Ashkenazi Jews (European descent) and Mizrahi Jews (Middle Eastern\/North African descent) differ historically in status and voting patterns.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Jewish-Arab<\/strong>: Arab citizens face systemic inequality and are often excluded from national identity and governance debates.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Judicial Crisis<\/strong>: Deep polarization emerged over judicial reform, with mass protests defending democratic institutions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Geographic<\/strong>: Urban centers lean liberal; peripheral towns and settlements are more conservative and religious.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n These divisions contribute to political instability, fragmented coalitions, and growing tensions over Israel\u2019s democratic and Jewish character. As strategic consensus erodes and public trust in leadership falters, especially among reservists and young secular Israelis, Israel\u2019s willingness to use force may become more selective, contested, or politically risky.<\/p>\n Before the attack on Iran, Netanyahu\u2019s ruling coalition was teetering on the edge of collapse over the issue of conscription of Orthodox religious men. Massive demonstrations have regularly occurred opposing the government\u2019s legislative attempts to limit the powers of Israel\u2019s judiciary, and there have also been continuing large demonstrations against the fighting in Gaza. Many reservists have refused orders to return to duty because of their opposition to the conduct of the Gaza war. Thus, it is likely that the turbulent conditions in Israeli domestic politics will worsen in the future.<\/p>\n Shifting Military Power Balance<\/strong><\/p>\n Military power depends on economic power. The Islamic nations of the Mideast are collectively much richer in natural and human resources than Israel. This disparity will persist and grow in future decades, irrespective of political divisions and frictions among the Islamic nations. The growing wealth of Israel\u2019s adversaries will likely enable the development of arsenals of advanced weaponry capable of overwhelming Israel\u2019s defenses.<\/p>\n Military analysts have written extensively about the superior performance of Israel in wars against its neighbors (e.g., Why Arabs Lose Wars<\/a>), and they attribute much of this advantage to human factors, such as training, unit cohesion, and patriotic fervor. However, as weaponry becomes more sophisticated, human factors diminish as a determinant of victory. The current long-range fighting between Israel and Iran involves no maneuvering or close combat of soldiers. It is a battle between offensive and defensive missiles and aircraft.<\/p>\n\n
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