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New research highlighted in the journal CABI Reviews<\/em> suggests that all five subregions of Africa will breach the 1.5\u00b0C climate change threshold — the limit stipulated by the Paris Agreement — by 2040 even under low emission scenarios.<\/p>\n A team of scientists, from the University of Zimbabwe, and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Kenya, conducted a literature review to develop a framework for just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture towards low emission and climate resilient development under 1.5\u00b0C of global warming.<\/p>\n They found that despite Africa emitting less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, the 1.5\u00b0C climate change threshold will be approached by 2040 in all five subregions of Africa, even under low emission scenarios.<\/p>\n Just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture are urgently required<\/strong><\/p>\n The scientists stress that just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture are urgently required for sustainable production systems that enhance food security and poverty reduction, while optimising mitigation co-benefits.<\/p>\n Professor Paul Mapfumo, Vice Chancellor of the University of Zimbabwe and lead author of the paper, said novel climate conditions are posing a serious threat to humanity and ecological systems, presenting and aggravating social injustices at different levels.<\/p>\n Distributive, procedural and recognition injustices include, the scientists say, inherent inequalities, gender disparities or narrow employment opportunities which they argue will be inevitably amplified and reinforced by the changing climate.<\/p>\n Prof Mapfumo said, “African agriculture-based livelihood systems will be invariably the most affected because of their reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture and limited adaptive capacity due to low economic development linked primarily to historical contingency.<\/p>\n “They have experienced considerable losses and damages from climate change, and this will worsen with increasing intensity of climate hazards.<\/p>\n “Neither the existing or planned incremental adaptation mechanisms, nor the anticipated benefits of migratory measures, are sufficiently comprehensive to match the pending novel climate conditions.”<\/p>\n Reprogramming of the cropping, livestock and fishery systems for climate proofing<\/strong><\/p>\n Prof Mapfumo and his colleagues argue that the just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture should be anchored on reprogramming of the cropping, livestock and fishery systems for climate proofing with a specific focus on a range of underpinnings.<\/p>\n These include financing the advancement of science, technology and innovation; restoring neglected or underutilised crops and livestock genetic pools; regenerating soil fertility and advancing soil health; restoring degraded land; protecting natural ecosystems and biodiversity; accessing quality education training and information technologies; and developing markets and creating novel distribution and trade opportunities.<\/p>\n Prof Mapfumo added, “Such efforts should also focus on mechanising and greening Africa’s agriculture as driven by a deliberate ‘Green Industrial Revolution’ for the new normal induced by climate change.<\/p>\n “Sustainability of climate change response and a just transition pathway framework for Africa also lies in corresponding transformation of education systems and research capacities tailored to drive economic development for Africa.”<\/p>\n The scientists conclude that the developed just transition framework offers opportunities for social inclusion, equity, building capacity for self-mobilisation and self-organisation of communities for climate action, and investments in the transition pathways for building a climate resilient agriculture towards zero poverty and meaningful contribution towards zero carbon.<\/p>\n The African Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES) funded the study.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n