\n<\/p>\n
By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\nBird Song of the Day<\/strong><\/p>\nI thought I would try some nightingales\u2026.<\/p>\n<\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Common Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, C\u00f3rdoba, Andaluc\u00eda, Spain.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"#pundits\">2024 Opinion-havers opine<\/a>, two weeks out.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#trump\">Trump media blitz<\/a> (Rogan; Carlson).<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#kamala\">Kamala and Biden\u2019s decline<\/a> (her view vs. the donor\u2019s view).<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#boeing\">Boeing satellite explodes<\/a>; Ortberg seeks culture change.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Politics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>2024<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Less tjhwo weeks to go!<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/free.timeanddate.com\/countdown\/i8ubjj5e\/n179\/cf100\/cm0\/cu1\/ct0\/cs1\/ca0\/cr0\/ss0\/cac000\/cpc000\/pcfff\/tcfff\/fs100\/szw320\/szh135\/tatTime%20left%20to%20Election%20Day%2C%202024\/tac000\/tptTime%20since%20Event%20started%20in\/tpc000\/mac000\/mpc000\/iso2024-11-05T00:00:00\/bo2\/pd2\" allowtransparency=\"true\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"322\" height=\"137\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> <a name=\"rcp\"\/>Friday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">RCP<\/a> Poll Averages:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280569\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18.png 618w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18-194x300.png 194w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Lambert here: Big Mo shifts toward Trump, this week, even in WI (that is, if you ignore the entire concept of margin of error). Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be <sub>MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!<\/sub>.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"pundits\"\/>\u201cTwo Weeks to Go, but Only One Way to Stay Calm\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/22\/opinion\/harris-trump-polling-averages.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201c\u2018Keep calm and throw it in the average\u2019 is the best way for a voracious consumer of polling data to stay sane this election season\u2026. To put this year\u2019s post-Labor Day race into some historical polling context, I looked at how much one frequently cited polling average, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved going back through the 2008 election\u2026. In 2008, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain actually held close to a three-point lead in national polls, but by Election Day, things had swung heavily toward Barack Obama, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Obama leading by around seven points \u2014 a 10-point range of results over the course of about two months\u2026. . In 2020, a race in which Joe Biden consistently led in the national polls, the polling average still moved in a range from around Mr. Biden +6 to Mr. Biden +10. This year? Since Labor Day, the polls have moved from a high-water mark for Kamala Harris of +2.2 to a recent slim lead of just +0.9. So when we say the race is barely budging, it is <em>barely<\/em> budging,\u201d And: \u201cTrump\u2019s very well-defined brand image anchors the election, leaving a very narrow band in which the race can trade.\u201d I don\u2019t think an election is a market, or a vote is a trade. More: \u201d I also think there\u2019s the possibility that something methodological is behind the stability we see in the averages. Because some pollsters are weighting their surveys to a fairly fixed assumption about what the electorate will look like, including with regard to partisan makeup, it prevents numbers from moving as much as they might otherwise if the partisan makeup of their samples could float freely.\u201d \u2022 Hmm. <\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cJames Carville: Three Reasons I\u2019m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/opinion\/kamala-harris-win-election.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cMs. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain. Here are three reasons: [1] Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different\u2026 There simply do not seem to be enough voters \u2014 even in the battleground states \u2014 who turn out at Mr. Trump\u2019s behest anymore when he\u2019s simply preaching to his base. He has not learned from his electoral losses nor done the necessary work to assemble a broad electoral coalition in 2024. [2] Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves\u2026.. With her field operation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/13\/us\/politics\/trump-harris-campaign-ground-game.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">moving like a tremendous machine<\/a>, it seems likely there has never been a greater disparity in voter contact efforts\u2026. [3] It\u2019s just a feeling. My final reason is 100 percent emotional. We are constantly told that America is too divided, too hopelessly stricken by tribalism, to grasp the stakes. That is plain wrong\u2026. In two weeks, we not only have a chance to elect Kamala Harris as president, but a chance to bring finality to the sordid career of Donald Trump and drive MAGA into a prolonged remission.\u201d \u2022 \u201cRemission,\u201d eh?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHere\u2019s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don\u2019t Trust Anyone\u2019s Gut, Even Mine\u201d [Nate Silver, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/opinion\/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it. Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: \u2018C\u2019mon, Nate, what\u2019s your gut say?\u2019 So OK, I\u2019ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.\u201d On the polling: \u201cInstead [of shy Trump voters], the likely problem is what pollsters call nonresponse bias\u2026.. Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past. There\u2019s no guarantee any of this will work. If Mr. Trump does beat his polling, there will have been at least one clear sign of it: Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification \u2014 about as many people now identify as Republicans.\u201d But: \u201cHere\u2019s another counterintuitive finding: It\u2019s surprisingly likely that the election won\u2019t be a photo finish\u2026. With polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one the industry experienced in 2016 or 2020 could produce a comfortable Electoral College victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. According to my model, there\u2019s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states\u2026. Don\u2019t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards \u2014 or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people\u2019s guts might tell them.\u201d \u2022 I guess we\u2019ll see!<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe electorate is changing. Here\u2019s what that means for Trump and Harris\u201d [Ron Brownstein, <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/10\/22\/politics\/changing-electorate-trump-harris-analysis\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CNN<\/a>]. \u201cThe groups that Harris needs to give her winning margins are the non-White and college-educated White voters (especially women in each case). The fact that both of those groups are increasing in the electorate, while Trump\u2019s best cohort is shrinking, may give Harris a small swell in her sails. \u201cThe growing parts of the population are leaning Democrat, even in this time\u201d when so many voters are discontented with conditions in the country, Frey said. The fact that women are likely to cast more ballots than men in all the swing states, he believes, will provide a small lift to Harris as well.\u201d \u2022 Abortion + the war machine seems to be Harris\u2019s view of a winning formula for college-educated White women\u2026 Commentary:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump’s base of non-college White voters.<\/p>\n<p>This is key because they make up a ton of the electorate, especially in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she’s holding her own in MI, PA & WI. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ww9pnp3DxY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/ww9pnp3DxY<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ForecasterEnten\/status\/1848359901354996117\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 21, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cDonald Trump Losing \u2018Core Group\u2019 Vital in 3 Battleground States\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polls-non-college-educated-white-1972947\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Newsweek<\/a>]. \u201cPolitical analyst Harry Enten\u2019s analysis shows Trump is leading nationally among noncollege educated white voters by 27 points, down from 31 points in 2020 and 33 points in 2016. \u2018That might not seem like a lot, but given that we\u2019re seeing these double digit gains among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we\u2019re seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that\u2019s a rather interesting development,\u2019 Enten said\u2026 Enten said that the shift mattered because noncollege educated white voters make up 40 percent of the electorate nationally, but 51 percent of the electorate in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin\u2026. \u2018,\u2019 Enten explained. Enten\u2019s analysis also revealed that Trump\u2019s vote share among noncollege educated white voters is declining in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with his lead currently standing at 19 points, compared to 22 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016. \u2018,\u2019 Enten said. \u2018And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts among smaller groups in the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris is still in the ball game right now.’\u201d \u2022 Hmm.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c2024 Election Could Hinge on Tiny Shifts in the Electorate\u201d [Ed Kilgore, <a href=\"https:\/\/nymag.com\/intelligencer\/article\/2024-election-demographic-change.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Magazine<\/a>]. \u201d This apparently very close presidential election reflects a deeply divided electorate where the potential changes in either direction we all talk about constantly are glacial and arguably self-canceling..,. Very big differences in the direction of the country will flow from tiny shifts in one direction or another of a closely divided electorate. It\u2019s why anxiety levels are so high right now among those paying avid attention to politics, even though the outcome may depend on \u201clow-propensity voters\u201d barely paying attention at all.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cCitizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/citizen-forecasting-of-the-2024-presidential-election-last-soundings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Larry Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/a>]. \u201cAsking people who they believe will win the election, as opposed to who they are going to vote for, can be an effective tool for trying to figure out who is favored in an election. A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win during the summer, but more recently these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris.\u201d A Keynsian beauty contest! More: \u201cA growing body of evidence indicates that \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/british-journal-of-political-science\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasting-can-voters-see-into-the-future\/997F71FA348ED48B613CDAC3138CE7EA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">citizen forecasting<\/a>\u2018 (CF), as the latter method has been called, makes for more accurate predictions of the winner. Indeed, studies of CF in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/political-science-research-and-methods\/article\/what-to-expect-when-youre-electing-citizen-forecasts-in-the-2020-election\/E9FC32C12DFD4E53B3CE551D681F8AB3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">United States<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0261379410001010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">United Kingdom<\/a>, as well as work on other democracies (such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0169207018301274\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Canada<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/ps-political-science-and-politics\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasting-the-2022-french-presidential-election\/0FBB7FDC3FAF7F41A2E99C595D7753AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">France<\/a>, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/ps-political-science-and-politics\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasts-of-the-2021-german-election\/EDDAD6C5A36D9518A5D8D970B29A0660\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Germany<\/a>) have demonstrated that voter expectations outperform voter intentions in terms of predictive accuracy, yielding a higher level of statistical and substantive significance. Inspired by this impressive track record, we have been systematically recording citizen forecasts with regard to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, via nationally representative samples of American voters, as drawn by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verasight.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Verasight<\/a> survey team.\u201d And: \u201cThis current citizen forecast points to a Harris victory in November.\u201d But: \u201cVerasight polls conducted June 20-26, July 20-22, Aug. 20-26, . N = 750 for all four polls.\u201d \u2022 The last polling was still during Harris\u2019s honeymoon period, three weeks ago. And that\u2019s a long time in politics.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWill long COVID sway the 2024 election? These Rutgers researchers think it could\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northjersey.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2024\/10\/21\/voters-with-long-covid-disability-a-rising-force-rutgers-study-says\/75720912007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">USA Today<\/a>]. \u201cAn aging U.S. population and the rise of long COVID mean voters with disabilities may have more of an impact on the upcoming election than ever before, a new Rutgers University <a href=\"https:\/\/smlr.rutgers.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Documents\/Centers\/Program_Disability_Research\/Disability_Electorate_Projections_Report_Oct2024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">report<\/a> finds\u2026. Between aging, long COVID and other factors, one in six eligible voters in the U.S. now has a disability of some type, the Rutgers researchers found. That\u2019s double the growth rate of voters without disabilities, their report said\u2026. Historically, these voters have splintered into smaller groups, each lobbying for its specific needs to deal with developmental disabilities, mobility challenges or other issues. But the various communities came together during the pandemic around imperatives like access to health care and employment, Schur said\u2026. \u2018Overall, there is no real partisan advantage. When there was a blue wave in 2018, people with disabilities were part of the blue wave. There wasn\u2019t really a big difference, and I don\u2019t expect a really big difference this year,\u2019 [Douglas] Kruse said. \u2018But it is true, as Lisa [Schur] says, that health care is more important to people with disabilities. And I think that tends to favor the Democrats.’\u201d That might depend on what their experience with the health care system actually is. And: \u201cOne more fact about potential voters with disabilities heading to the polls across the country this year: There will be more women (21.6 million) than men (18.6 million). That breaks down into 411,300 men and 533,900 women in New Jersey. The group of adults affected swells to 72.7 million \u2014 one in three eligible voters \u2014 after adding those who live with someone with a disability. Thought about that way, the electorate with disabilities now surpasses the Hispanic\/Latino and Black voting demographics in the U.S., Kruse and Schur noted.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cThe Clock Is Ticking on Kamala Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/magazine\/2024\/10\/22\/kamala-harris-reassure-voters-liberal-00184879\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Politico<\/a>]. \u201cThe evening\u2019s moderator, Wisconsin conservative talk show host turned anti-Trump writer Charlie Sykes, opened with the political equivalent of a fastball down the middle of the plate. Perched beneath a \u2018Country Over Party sign,\u2019 Sykes asked Harris for her pitch to the voter who supported Republicans from yesteryear but are uneasy now about casting a ballot for a Democrat. The vice president began by citing \u2018the lived experience\u2019 of most Americans \u2014 sounding more like a graduate student from down the road in Madison than most Americans \u2014 of having much in common. She repeated a line from her stump speech about how Americans \u2018love our country\u2019 before praising democracy, the rule of law and the Constitution. Then, making a little progress, she invoked her service on the Senate Intelligence Committee, where lawmakers from both parties put aside partisanship to focus on protecting the \u2018security and well-being\u2019 of all Americans. That, Harris concluded, \u2018is at stake.\u2019 That was it. Harris said nothing specific about how she\u2019d govern, mentioned no looming issue on which she\u2019d work with Republicans and offered no reassurances about leading the country from the political center. And, of course, there was no critique of her own party or even an expression of sympathy or understanding about why voting for a liberal could be difficult for a longtime conservative. There wasn\u2019t even a reference to her previous commitments to include a Republican in the Cabinet or create a bipartisan council of advisers. And this was in response to the opening question from a pre-selected moderator who is supporting her campaign!\u201d \u2022 Everything about this is bad: the candidate, the staffwork, and the net effect on those invested in her, like Sykes, who might well feel they\u2019d been played.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"kamala\"\/>Kamala (D): What Kamala said:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Hallie Jackson asked Harris yesterday: “Can you say that you were honest with the American people about what you saw in those moments with President Biden, as you were with him again and again repeatedly in that time?” <\/p>\n<p>Harris: “Of course. Joe Biden is an extremely accomplished,\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HMykeLm5MD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/HMykeLm5MD<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1849101499260944573\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>What others saw:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">At a Chevy Chase fundraiser in June 2023, Bill Reichblum tells Woodward of Biden: \u201cHe never completed a sentence\u2026.He told the same story three times in exactly the same way and it meandered so much\u2026Frankly, my impression was there were times\u2026it was as though we didn\u2019t exist.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Vav7clSMGQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/Vav7clSMGQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1849093668746969149\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>I suppose a Democrat loyalist would say \u201cShe has to say that,\u201d but it sticks in my craw. And Biden is also, we may forget, still President. Why is that OK?<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cDetroit Muslim leader ejected from Kamala Harris rally, deepening rift between Democrats and Arab Americans\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metrotimes.com\/news\/detroit-muslim-leader-ejected-from-kamala-harris-rally-deepening-rift-between-democrats-and-arab-americans-37670193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Detroit Metro Times<\/a>]. \u201cAhmed Ghanim, a Democrat, says he accepted an invitation to the event and was seated in the Royal Oak Music Theatre when a campaign organizer ordered him to leave. \u2018She took me to the door, and she closed it, and I found two police officers waiting there, and she said, \u2018You have to leave right now,\u201d Ghanim tells Metro Times. \u2018I asked why she was kicking me out. She wouldn\u2019t answer. I was very calmly asking why I was being kicked out.\u2019 He continues, \u2018I was just wearing a suit and a white shirt. I said, \u2018OK,\u2019 and I left. The police officer said, \u2018You either leave now or I\u2019ll put you in the back of my car.’\u201d Nice. The Harris campaign statementL \u201cThe campaign was swiftly informed by Emgage Action [Ghanim\u2019s organizaiton] of yesterday\u2019s incident and looked into it,\u2019 the statement reads, referring to a Muslim American advocacy group. \u2018Our campaign regrets this action and its impact on Dr. Ghanim and the community, and he is welcome at future events. We value our relationship with the Muslim American community and are committed to ensuring all community and political spaces are welcoming and respectful to every American.’\u201d \u2022 Terrible staffwork, both in Ghanim\u2019s ejection and the statement (in which the word \u201capologize\u201d does not appear). Despite the statements blah blah blah, it looks to me like the Harris campaign <em>already<\/em> had the cops wired up, and had a list (with photos) of attendees to bar.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cWhat Kamala Harris Needs to Do to Win Over More Black Men\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/what-kamala-harris-needs-to-do-to-win-over-more-black-men\/ar-AA1sM4kb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Magazine<\/a>]. \u201cDemocrats have known since Hillary Clinton\u2019s loss in 2016 that carrying the all-important industrial midwestern states requires maximum turnout in the Black communities of Detroit, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. The problem is that Dems have assumed they could generate Obama-era levels of excitement for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden \u2014 and now Kamala Harris \u2014 without a substantial, sustained political investment up front.\u201d And: \u201c\u2018You\u2019re going to pick on Black men and blame us for everything. What did you deliver to Black men in the past four years?\u2019 the activist and commentator Van Jones said at a recent university discussion in California. \u2018We wanted the George Floyd police-reform act. Didn\u2019t get it. We wanted the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Didn\u2019t get it. And we wanted the EQUAL Act, the next step in criminal justice reform, and didn\u2019t get that. Three things we wanted, and we got zero, zilch, nunca, nada, nothing.\u2019 By contrast, Jones noted, Trump signed the First Step Act, which granted early release from federal prison to more than 30,000 people \u2014 a monumental rollback of mass incarceration that Democrats rarely discuss.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Hmm.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NEWS <\/p>\n<p>Vice President Kamala Harris is planning to deliver her closing argument Tuesday in a speech on the National Mall. <\/p>\n<p>Sources tell the Washington Post that Harris\u2019 speech will talk about January 6 but will focus more broadly on her thoughts on Trump\u2019s threat to democracy.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FVM52Jl01q\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/FVM52Jl01q<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Yashar Ali \ud83d\udc18 (@yashar) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yashar\/status\/1849139992960061644?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Chutzpah. Even Obama 2012 didn\u2019t do that. I grant that the setting tops Carlson and Rogan.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): Biden on the trail:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Biden in NH lists what Trump would do as president and says: \u201cwe gotta lock him up\u201d and then, appearing to realize how his comments would be taken, adds: \u201cpolitically, lock him up.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cw3X8RzKn2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/cw3X8RzKn2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1848846678138183726\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Thanks, Joe. We knew what you meant.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"trump\"\/>Trump (R): Media blitz (1):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Here we go! \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">@realDonaldTrump<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bgja6JPqsQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/bgja6JPqsQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Joe Rogan Podcast (@joeroganhq) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joeroganhq\/status\/1848824394250129550\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>JRE = Joe Rogan Experience.<\/p>\n<p>Trump (R): Media blitz (2):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Our live tour is not over yet. For the grand finale, we\u2019ll be in Glendale, AZ, on October 31st with special guest President Donald J. Trump. All profits will be donated to hurricane relief efforts. We hope to see you there.<\/p>\n<p>Get tickets to our biggest show yet at\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/00756VvITT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/00756VvITT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TuckerCarlson\/status\/1849127742727508416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Trump (R) (Willis\/McAfee): \u201cSpecial prosecutor in Georgia\u2019s case against Trump met with Biden officials\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2024\/oct\/21\/nathan-wade-special-prosecutor-in-georgias-case-ag\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Washington Times<\/a>]. \u201cNathan Wade, who led the Fulton County election interference case against Donald Trump while having an affair with District Attorney Fani Willis, admitted to congressional investigators he met with White House officials several times but claimed he couldn\u2019t remember the details\u2026. Ms. Willis hired Mr. Wade even though he was a divorce lawyer with little experience prosecuting criminal cases. In 2022, he was paid nearly $700,000 to oversee the case against the former president, according to a co-defendant seeking to have the charges dismissed\u2026.. Mr. Wade acknowledged the Biden administration\u2019s involvement in the case during the interview that was conducted on Oct. 15 by committee investigators. He verified the existence of invoices he submitted in which he billed for a \u2018Conf. with White House counsel\u2019 in Athens, Georgia, on May 23, 2022. When asked about each of the invoices obtained by investigators, Mr. Wade responded 58 times that he couldn\u2019t remember details.\u201d \u2022 What reason could the White House possibly have for getting involved in a state prosectution? Seems odd.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cElon Musk \u2018Jokes\u2019 in a Church About Someone Killing Kamala Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rollingstone.com\/politics\/politics-news\/elon-musk-harris-trump-assassination-joke-church-1235139632\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Rolling Stone<\/a>]. \u201cElon Musk keeps trying to stick his \u2018joke\u2019 about somebody assassinating Vice President Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, Musk remarked, again, that \u2018no one\u2019s even bothering to try to kill Kamala\u2019 \u2026 Acting as a Donald Trump surrogate \u2014 in addition to the $75 million moneyman behind a leading Trump Super PAC \u2014 Musk spoke Saturday night at the Life Center megachurch in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which is notable for launching the career of Christian supremacist God-rocker Sean Feucht.\u201d \u2022 I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if Musk\u2019s involvement, at all levels, didn\u2019t turn out to be a net negative. He\u2019s a loose cannon, and the Trump campaign doesn\u2019t need two. (I\u2019d like a lot less Musk, and a lot more Kennedy. I wouldn\u2019t call Kennedy a loose cannon, so much as his own cannon. Apparently, a Townall with Trump, Kennedy, and Tulsi was cancelled; unfortunate, in my view).<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>AZ: Impressive:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Arizona Dem running against Kari Lake foe the US Senate, RUBEN GALLEGO, had promised to visit all 22 of the state’s federally recognized tribes. But there was no road leading into the Havasupai village of 639 people. So he trekked in on foot. It took him 4 hours to walk there.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Lise Horton Is Writing (@lisekimhorton) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/lisekimhorton\/status\/1847607680568840228\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 19, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Perhaps a stunt, but still impressive.<\/p>\n<p>GA: \u201cIn battleground Georgia, poor people see no reason to vote. That decision could sway election\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/battleground-georgia-poor-people-see-041119022.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Associated Press<\/a> (KLG)]. \u201cLocated about 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Atlanta, Bibb County is the kind of place where Vice President Kamala Harris would need to run up her margin in order to defeat Donald Trump in this year\u2019s election, a strategy that helped Biden win the state four years ago as he promised to lift up Black Americans. It won\u2019t be easy: Bibb County never recovered all the jobs lost during the pandemic, and Labor Department data show it had more jobs in 2019 under Trump than it does now. Trump, the former president, sees himself as having an opportunity with Black voters, particularly men. But he and Harris have one thing in common: Each will have a difficult time persuading people to turn out who typically sit out elections. More than 47,000 people in Bibb County were eligible to vote in 2020 and didn\u2019t, a figure roughly four times Biden\u2019s margin of victory across the entire state.\u201d But: \u201cBut the more nonurban parts of Georgia are only part of the electoral puzzle. <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/michelle-obama-georgia-younger-voters-harris-curry-85c45be7377a84d04362050664ac44c8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">It\u2019s a dramatically different story in Atlanta<\/a> and its vote-rich suburbs where enthusiasm runs high for both Harris and Trump, although often divided by race.\u201d However: \u201cNonvoters have basic, urgent needs the campaigns don\u2019t address.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>NV: \u201cThe early voting blog, 2024\u201d [John Ralston (ick), <a href=\"https:\/\/thenevadaindependent.com\/article\/the-early-voting-blog-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Nevada Independent<\/a>]. \u201cRurals matter. Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds\u2026.. Dems are only winning the urban Nevada ballot race by 1 percent \u2013 38-37. Repubs have a nearly 3 percent turnout advantage statewide.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Interesting, but early days yet.<\/p>\n<p>NV: \u201cAs Harris Courts Sun Belt, Housing Costs Stand in Her Way\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/21\/us\/politics\/2024-campaign-las-vegas-nevada-housing.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn a state that relies on hourly wage workers in tourism and service jobs, many cannot find an affordable place to live\u2026 Many working-class voters say a promise has been broken, and they are looking for someone to blame\u2026 Many once-reliable Democrats say the issue has eroded their trust in politicians. In the state\u2019s Democratic hub, that means turning away from Vice President Kamala Harris. \u2018When we got the new president, I didn\u2019t hear nothing, I didn\u2019t see any changes,\u2019 Maria Ocampo, 54, who has voted Democratic for decades, said of the Biden administration. This year, she does not plan to vote at all.\u201d \u2022 Innocent bystander: \u201cWasn\u2019t Lina Khan working on price-gouging landlords?\u201d Harris Campaign: \u201cWho?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Realignment and Legitimacy<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cEarly-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/4LoTv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">WaPo<\/a>] \u201cDemocrats have embraced early voting for years, in part because it leaves less to chance on Election Day, when busy schedules, bad weather or illness can keep voters from making it to the polls. Known as \u201cbanking\u201d votes, early voting also allows campaigns to be more efficient with resources as Election Day draws near by focusing attention on a smaller and smaller group of voters who have not yet cast ballots.\u201d \u2022 Another way of saying this is that early voting skews toward partisans who don\u2019t actually need to study what the candidates are saying. Why we are allowing that population, and the convenience of party operatives, to drive how our elections are run is an open question.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Syndemics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk&null=Risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>); Wastewater (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>, <del><a href=\"https:\/\/biobot.io\/data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Biobot<\/a><\/del>; includes many counties; <a href=\"https:\/\/data.wastewaterscan.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Wastewater Scan<\/a>, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.walgreens.com\/businesssolutions\/covid-19-index.jsp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Walgreens<\/a>); \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/iowacovid19tracker.org\/hospitals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Iowa COVID-19 Tracker<\/a>\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/icemsg.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts<\/a>\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n<p>Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n<p>Resources, United States (Local): AK (<a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/af2efc8bffbf4cdc83c2d1a134354074\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AL (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AR (<a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/633006d0782b4544bd5113a314f6268a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AZ (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.azdhs.gov\/covid19\/data\/index.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); CA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdph.ca.gov\/Programs\/CID\/DCDC\/Pages\/COVID-19\/CalSuWers-Dashboard.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.marinhhs.org\/surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Marin, dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/healthalerts.stanford.edu\/covid-19\/wastewater-dashboard\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Stanford, wastewater<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/publichealth.verily.com\/?v=SC2_N&l=Oakland%2C+CA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Oakland, wastewater<\/a>); CO (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.colorado.gov\/data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/cdphe.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/d79cf93c3938470ca4bcc4823328946b#utility=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); CT (<a href=\"https:\/\/data.ct.gov\/stories\/s\/COVID-19-data\/wa3g-tfvc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); DE (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.delaware.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); FL (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/5b9d75ba683849928dc1a49c39ab0b1c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); GA (<a href=\"https:\/\/dph.georgia.gov\/ga-nwss-wastewater-surveillance-reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); HI (<a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronavirusdisease2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); IA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dmmwra.org\/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=57\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater reports<\/a>); ID (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.idahopublichealth.com\/district-2\/novel-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, Boise; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.idahopublichealth.com\/district-2\/novel-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.wastewaterscan.org\/?plantId=1056f05c-0e46-4e3d-b007-c0453ba7dc0d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Central Idaho; <a href=\"https:\/\/publichealth.verily.com\/#:SARS-CoV-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.srhd.org\/topics\/spokane-county-case-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Spokane County<\/a>); IL (<a href=\"https:\/\/iwss.uillinois.edu\/wastewater-treatment-plants\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); IN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coronavirus.in.gov\/indiana-covid-19-dashboard-and-map\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); KS (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov\/160\/COVID-19-in-Kansas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/4456bae8a38f4b6180e008477382fff9\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Lawrence); KY (<a href=\"https:\/\/louisville.edu\/envirome\/thecoimmunityproject\/dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, Louisville); LA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ldh.la.gov\/coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mass.gov\/info-details\/covid-19-wastewater-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MD (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.maryland.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); ME (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.maine.gov\/dhhs\/mecdc\/infectious-disease\/epi\/airborne\/coronavirus\/data.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MI (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.michigan.gov\/coronavirus\/stats\/wastewater-surveillance\/dashboard\/sentinel-wastewater-epidemiology-evaluation-project-sweep\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/gisportal.state.mi.us\/portal\/apps\/insights\/index.html#\/view\/52bbb104ed574887918f990af9f3debe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.health.state.mn.us\/diseases\/coronavirus\/stats\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MO (<a href=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/f7f5492486114da6b5d6fdc07f81aacf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MS (<a href=\"https:\/\/msdh.ms.gov\/page\/14,0,420.html#Mississippi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); <del>MT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/MapSeries\/index.html?appid=7c34f3412536439491adcc2103421d4b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>)<\/del>; NC (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.ncdhhs.gov\/dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard)<\/a>; ND (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hhs.nd.gov\/health\/coronavirus\/cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hhs.nd.gov\/health\/coronavirus\/cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); NE (<a href=\"https:\/\/atlas-dhhs.ne.gov\/Atlas\/Respiratory_Illness\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NH (<a href=\"https:\/\/wisdom.dhhs.nh.gov\/wisdom\/dashboard.html?topic=covid-19&subtopic=recurring-updates&indicator=covid-19-wastewater#tabnavbarid\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); NJ (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.nj.gov\/forms\/datadashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NM (<a href=\"https:\/\/cvprovider.nmhealth.org\/public-dashboard.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NV (<a href=\"https:\/\/nvhealthresponse.nv.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/empower.unlv.edu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Southern NV); NY (<a href=\"https:\/\/mbcolli.shinyapps.io\/SARS2EWSP\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); OH (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.ohio.gov\/dashboards\/other-resources\/wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); OK (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/51657c21386d4f1a962b1853c76ec589\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); <del>OR (<a href=\"https:\/\/public.tableau.com\/app\/profile\/oregon.health.authority.covid.19\/viz\/OregonsCOVID-19DataDashboards-TableofContents\/TableofContentsStatewide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>)<\/del>; PA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.health.pa.gov\/topics\/disease\/coronavirus\/pages\/Cases.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); RI (<a href=\"https:\/\/ri-department-of-health-covid-19-data-rihealth.hub.arcgis.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); SC (<a href=\"https:\/\/scdhec.gov\/index.php\/covid19\/covid-19-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); SD (<a href=\"https:\/\/doh.sd.gov\/COVID\/Dashboard.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); TN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tn.gov\/health\/cedep\/ncov\/data.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); TX (<a href=\"https:\/\/txdshsea.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/4ae43eefd0f641d59d35c3df82ee59cc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); UT (<a href=\"https:\/\/avrpublic.dhhs.utah.gov\/uwss\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); VA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vdh.virginia.gov\/coronavirus\/sars-cov-2-in-wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); VT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.healthvermont.gov\/disease-control\/covid-19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); WA (<a href=\"https:\/\/doh.wa.gov\/emergencies\/covid-19\/data-dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.bfhd.wa.gov\/cases-and-roadmap-to-recovery\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); WI (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhs.wisconsin.gov\/covid-19\/wastewater.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); WV (<del><a href=\"https:\/\/oehs.wvdhhr.org\/news\/oehs-coivd-19-information\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a><\/del>); WY (<del><a href=\"https:\/\/covidwastewatermonitor.wyo.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a><\/del>).<\/p>\n<p>Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (<a href=\"https:\/\/health-infobase.canada.ca\/covid-19\/wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Government of Canada<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.publichealthontario.ca\/en\/Data-and-Analysis\/Infectious-Disease\/COVID-19-Data-Surveillance\/Wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); QC (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.inspq.qc.ca\/covid-19\/donnees\/eaux-usees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><em>les eaux us\u00e9es<\/em><\/a>); BC (<a href=\"https:\/\/bccdc.shinyapps.io\/respiratory_wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); BC, Vancouver (<a href=\"https:\/\/metrovancouver.org\/services\/liquid-waste\/testing-for-the-covid-19-virus-in-wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n<p>Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n<p>Airborne Transmission: Covid<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cTransmission of SARS-CoV-2 on aircraft: A scoping review\u201d (preprint) [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.22.24315911v1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">medRxiv<\/a>]. From the Abstract: \u201cThis review summarises reported contact-tracing data and evaluates the secondary attack rates (SAR) and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission in aircraft, to provide insight for future decision making in the context of future respiratory pandemics\u2026. Our results are consistent with sporadic clusters happening onboard aircraft. Close proximity to COVID-19 cases within the aircraft was associated with a higher [secondary attack rates (SAR)].\u201d \u2022 Sitting closer to the aisle and moving about the cabin is also associated with greater risk. In addition, transmission will also depend on the ventilation patterns in any given aircraft.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Infection: Covid<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIncident COVID-19 infections before Omicron in the US\u201d (preprint) [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.18.24315777v1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">medRxiv<\/a>]. From the Abstract: \u201c[W]e retrospectively estimate daily incident infections for each U.S. state prior to Omicron. To this end, reported COVID-19 cases are deconvolved to their date of infection onset using delay distributions estimated from the CDC line list. Then, a novel serology-driven model is used to scale these deconvolved cases to account for the unreported infections. The resulting infections incorporate variant-specific incubation periods, reinfections, and waning antigenic immunity. They clearly demonstrate that the reported cases fail to reflect the full extent of disease burden in all states. Most notably, , with an estimated reporting rate as low as 6.3% in New Jersey, 7.3% in Maryland, and 8.4% in Nevada. Moreover, . Therefore, while reported cases offer a convenient proxy of disease burden, they fail to capture the full extent of infections, and can severely underestimate the true disease burden.\u201d Here is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.18.24315777v1.full.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">a summary of the method<\/a>: \u201cFirst, we estimate the delays from positive specimen to report date and use them to push back the reported cases to their sample collection dates. Next, we estimate the delay from symptom onset to sample collection, combine this with variant-specific infection-to-symptom delays, and use these to push back the cases to infection onset. The resulting case estimates are aggregated across variant categories and adjusted by the case ascertainment ratio, estimated with seroprevalence survey data and a model for antigenic immunity.\u201d This is above my paygrade. Perhaps an epidemiologist in the readership can comment.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Elite Maleficence<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Still killing people:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uP4sCT0VCy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/uP4sCT0VCy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Nate Bear (@NateB_Panic) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateB_Panic\/status\/1848803543643525357\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"table\"\/><strong>TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Wastewater<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> This week[1] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 14<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Last Week[2] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> (until next week):<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280716\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" style=\"align: left; margin-left: 0px !important; padding: 9px 0 9px 0;\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong> Variants<\/strong> [3] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery#variant-proportions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> <strong>Emergency Room Visits<\/strong>[4] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_select_7dayeddiagnosed_00\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl-300x235.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280570\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl-300x176.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Hospitalization<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: gold;\">\u2605<\/span> New York[5] <a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.health.ny.gov\/daily-hospitalization-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York State<\/a>, data October 22:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> National [6] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/covidnetdashboard\/de\/powerbi\/dashboard.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 28:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280887\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9-300x189.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280573\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2-258x300.png 258w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Positivity<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> National[7] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.walgreens.com\/healthcare-solutions\/covid-19-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Walgreens<\/a> October 21:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Ohio[8] <a href=\"https:\/\/clevelandcliniclabs.com\/respiratory-virus-surveillance-statistics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Cleveland Clinic<\/a> October 19:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2-300x168.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280799\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2-300x195.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Travelers Data<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> Positivity[9] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#traveler-genomic-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 30:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Variants[10] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#traveler-genomic-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 30:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280574\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280575\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2-300x211.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Deaths<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] <a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronavirusdisease2019\/what-you-should-know\/current-situation-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] <a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronadisease2019\/what-you-should-know\/current-situation-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280572\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl-300x178.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1-300x177.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<td>\n<p><strong>LEGEND<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1) <span style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: gold;\">\u2605<\/span> for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n<p>2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOTES<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[1] (CDC) Good news!<\/p>\n<p>[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n<p>[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.<\/p>\n<p>[4] (ED) Down.<\/p>\n<p>[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.<\/p>\n<p>[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the \u201ceverything in greenish pastels\u201d crowd has gotten to this chart.<\/p>\n<p>[7] (Walgreens) A pause.<\/p>\n<p>[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.<\/p>\n<p>[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.<\/p>\n<p>[10] (Travelers: Variants). No XEC.<\/p>\n<p>[11] Deaths low, positivity down.<\/p>\n<p>[12] Deaths low, ED down.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stats Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There are no official statistics of interest today.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"boeing\"\/>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing\u2019s bad year just keeps getting worse: One of its satellites has exploded in orbit, with debris becoming a potential threat to other satellites\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/10\/23\/boeing-satellite-explodes-in-orbit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Fortune<\/a>]. \u201cA Boeing-made communications satellite has exploded, with debris floating that could potentially be a threat to other satellites at some point. Intelsat, the owner of the satellite, is reporting \u201cthe total loss\u201d of the device in an update on its Website. The company is working with Boeing and government agencies to determine the cause of the mishap\u2026. The U.S. Space Force says it is tracking 20 pieces of debris from the destroyed satellite and there was no immediate threat to other orbiting space equipment. Other observers, though, have seen higher amounts of debris. ExoAnalytic Solutions told SpaceNews it was tracking 57 pieces of debris and was warning operators of spacecraft that could be at risk of collision. And Russia\u2019s space agency said it was tracking more than 80 fragments.\u201d \u2022 Oopsie.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing reports $6 billion quarterly loss as striking workers vote whether to accept contract offer\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lakelandtoday.ca\/national-business\/boeing-reports-6-billion-quarterly-loss-as-striking-workers-vote-whether-to-accept-contract-offer-9697212\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Associated Press<\/a>]. \u201d Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of more than $6 billion before turning its attention to whether striking factory workers would accept a contract offer Wednesday and end a walkout that has crippled the company\u2019s airplane production for nearly six weeks\u2026. Boeing hasn\u2019t had a profitable year since 2018, and Wednesday\u2019s numbers represented the second-worst quarter in the manufacturer\u2019s history.The company burned nearly $2 billion in cash, in the quarter, weakening its balance sheet, which is loaded down with $58 billion in debt. Chief Financial Officer Brian West said the company will burn cash through 2025, but at a slower pace.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing\u2019s New C.E.O. Calls for \u2018Culture Change\u2019 as Strike Vote Looms\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/business\/boeing-earnings-strike-vote.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn a message to employees, Mr. Ortberg shared a speech that he planned to deliver to investor analysts on a call later in the day to discuss Boeing\u2019s quarterly financial results. In it, he offered a diagnosis: The company had lost too much trust, gained too much debt and made too many mistakes. To put Boeing back on the right path would require \u2018fundamental culture change,\u2019 stabilizing the business and improving execution. \u2018Our leaders, from me on down, need to be closely integrated with our business and the people who are doing the design and production of our products,\u2019 he said. \u2018We need to be on the factory floors, in the back shops and in our engineering labs. We need to know what\u2019s going on, not only with our products, but with our people.’\u201d \u2022 Fine. Restore defined-benefit pensions (and put a union member on the Board, as I keep screaming). <a href=\"https:\/\/boeing.mediaroom.com\/news-releases-statements?item=131499\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Here are Ortberg\u2019s complete remarks<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cIntelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/spacenews.com\/intelsat-33e-loses-power-in-geostationary-orbit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Space News<\/a>]. \u201cAn Intelsat spokesperson said the satellite was not insured at the time of the issue.\u201d \u2022 Surely not wise, with a Boeing product?<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 71 Greed (previous close: 73 Extreme Greed) [<a href=\"https:\/\/money.cnn.com\/data\/fear-and-greed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CNN<\/a>]. One week ago: 66 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 22 at 2:37:54 PM ET.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gallery<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One of my favorite flowers:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Monet, Irises <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ElVphj6eDM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/ElVphj6eDM<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Impressions (@impression_ists) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/impression_ists\/status\/1848069935504708031\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 20, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"class\"\/><strong>Class Warfare<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Tech Coup: A New Book Shows How the Unchecked Power of Companies Is Destabilizing Governance\u201d (interview) [<a href=\"https:\/\/hai.stanford.edu\/news\/tech-coup-new-book-shows-how-unchecked-power-companies-destabilizing-governance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Stanford University<\/a>]. Interview with Stanford institute for Human-Centered AI Policy Fellow Marietje Schaake. \u201c<em>In what ways are private companies increasingly taking on functions normally assumed by states?<\/em> In the digital realm, companies\u2019 control of information, unfettered agency, and power to act have almost overtaken that of governments. For example, in the private intelligence sector, companies like NSO Group Technologies with its Pegasus spyware products are creating and selling the capability to hack into people\u2019s devices. This means that anyone with the financial resources to purchase Pegasus spyware can access the capabilities of intelligence services and hack into the very private information of political opponents, judges, journalists, critical employees, competitors, and others. Another striking example is that of offensive cyber capabilities. In the name of defending their clients or their networks, companies are attacking hackers across borders, using \u2018offense as defense.\u2019 And notice that I\u2019m talking not only about big tech companies but also small ones, because there\u2019s de facto power that comes from the development of digital technologies.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><a name=\"wired\"\/><strong>News of the Wired<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cHow Your Brain Detects Patterns without Conscious Thought\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/how-your-brain-detects-patterns-without-conscious-thought\/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Scientific American<\/a>]. \u201cIn an experimental trial, participants viewed a series of the face images\u2026. During the experiment, neurons in each participant\u2019s hippocampus and entorhinal cortex gradually began to respond not only to the face being presented but also to faces directly connected to it on the triangle. When asked whether they noticed any pattern in the order of the images, the participants said they didn\u2019t. But their brain cells still learnt the pattern, showing that the brain can recognize patterns without conscious awareness. In the breaks between trials, the participants\u2019 \u2018face\u2019 neurons replayed what they had learnt, cycling through the patterns on their own without being stimulated to do so. \u2018This is something that is not explicit, it is implicit. And the brain gets it, essentially, very quickly, and we can see those changes in the individual cells,\u2019 says Fried.\u201d \u2022 Patterns generally, or optimized for faces?<\/p>\n<p>For our numismatists:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Distribution of Roman Coins Found. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XC9X2E5jDR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/XC9X2E5jDR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Illegitimate Scholar\ud83e\udded (@ill_Scholar) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ill_Scholar\/status\/1843312874254750199\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 7, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Contact information for plants<\/strong>: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-22-2024.html\">here<\/a>. From SC:<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"800\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280889\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia-225x300.jpeg 225w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>SC writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\nFor more than a decade, I\u2019ve been intrigued by the genus Tithonia, aka \u201cMexican Sunflower.\u201d I first encountered it back in the \u201900s or early \u201910s when I read that it was used as green manure in parts of Africa, planted along the edges of fields and harvested for use as Nitrogen rich soil amendment. At first, I thought that it was fixing atmospheric Nitrogen but I later learned that it merely accumulates already-present soil Nitrogen into its tissues. It\u2019s a cheery, attractive plant, sort of a giant puff-ball of orange daisy-like blossoms. The blossoms are well-suited to the feeding anatomy of butterflies and hummingbirds. Starting in the mid-to-late \u201910s, I have been annually providing a bunch of these to a local social services agency that plants them outside its meeting rooms. The plants attract hummingbirds, which provide a morale boost to staff and clients. At, I think, clientele initiative, the agency subsequently started a horticulture sub-agenda in one of its programs, an on-site day partial care program for mentally-ill homeless people, and that has branched out into veggie, decorative and herb gardening at the agency site. <\/p>\n<p> A few years ago, a sibling planted two of these (of species T. Rotundifolia, that reputedly grows to 6\u2032 height) and aggressively watered them. They grew to the eaves of her house, 8\u2032 at least, and were so leafy and dense that you couldn\u2019t see through them. The plants had hundreds of blossoms and lots of hiding places, a kind of hummingbird heaven. Such a large plant from a small seed.<\/p>\n<p>This photo is of an example of T. speciosa (in my experience, less tall and bushy than rotundifolia), that reputedly reaches 4-5\u2032 height. A friend who regularly accepts plants from my \u201cbackyard nursery\u201d passed it further on. It was started from seed in mid-Winter 2024. The recipient evidently aggressively watered and fertilized it; the plant towers at 9\u2032. I wonder what the neighbors make of it.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Wow. I could really file this under \u201cLook for the helpers,\u201d too!<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"donate\"\/><strong>Readers<\/strong>: Water Cooler is a standalone entity <em>not<\/em> covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert\u2019s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! <em>Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage<\/em>. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n<p>Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-226891\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"606\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png 606w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution-300x190.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!<\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-alignleft\"><a href=\"#\" rel=\"nofollow\" onclick=\"window.print(); return false;\" title=\"Printer Friendly, PDF & Email\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;-webkit-box-shadow:none; -moz-box-shadow: none; box-shadow:none; padding:0; margin:0\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\" alt=\"Print Friendly, PDF & Email\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\nThis entry was posted in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/category\/water-cooler\" rel=\"category tag\">Water Cooler<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-23-2024.html\" title=\"2:00 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date updated\" datetime=\"2024-10-23T14:00:46-04:00\">October 23, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/author\/lambert-strether\" title=\"View all posts by Lambert Strether\" rel=\"author\">Lambert Strether<\/a><\/span><\/span>. <\/p>\n<div class=\"author-info\">\n<div class=\"author-description\">\n<h2>About Lambert Strether<\/h2>\n<p>Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (\u201cBecause markets\u201d). I don\u2019t much care about the \u201cism\u201d that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don\u2019t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.<br \/>\nTo me, the key issue \u2014 and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me \u2014 is the tens of thousands of excess \u201cdeaths from despair,\u201d as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics \u2014 even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton\u2019s wars created \u2014 bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow \u2014 currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press \u2014 a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let\u2019s call such voices \u201cthe left.\u201d Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn\u2019t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I\u2019ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n<nav class=\"nav-single\">\n<h3 class=\"assistive-text\">Post navigation<\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"nav-previous list-posts-older\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/the-logistics-great-game.html\" rel=\"prev\"><span class=\"meta-nav\">\u2190<\/span> The Great Game of Logistics<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"nav-next list-posts-newer\"\/><br \/>\n<\/nav>\n<footer id=\"colophon\" role=\"contentinfo\">\n<\/footer>\n<\/td>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-23-2024.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day I thought I would try some nightingales\u2026. Common Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, C\u00f3rdoba, Andaluc\u00eda, Spain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":86251,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,183],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-spotlight"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86250\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Bird Song of the Day<\/strong><\/p>\nI thought I would try some nightingales\u2026.<\/p>\n<\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Common Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, C\u00f3rdoba, Andaluc\u00eda, Spain.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"#pundits\">2024 Opinion-havers opine<\/a>, two weeks out.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#trump\">Trump media blitz<\/a> (Rogan; Carlson).<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#kamala\">Kamala and Biden\u2019s decline<\/a> (her view vs. the donor\u2019s view).<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#boeing\">Boeing satellite explodes<\/a>; Ortberg seeks culture change.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Politics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>2024<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Less tjhwo weeks to go!<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/free.timeanddate.com\/countdown\/i8ubjj5e\/n179\/cf100\/cm0\/cu1\/ct0\/cs1\/ca0\/cr0\/ss0\/cac000\/cpc000\/pcfff\/tcfff\/fs100\/szw320\/szh135\/tatTime%20left%20to%20Election%20Day%2C%202024\/tac000\/tptTime%20since%20Event%20started%20in\/tpc000\/mac000\/mpc000\/iso2024-11-05T00:00:00\/bo2\/pd2\" allowtransparency=\"true\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"322\" height=\"137\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> <a name=\"rcp\"\/>Friday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">RCP<\/a> Poll Averages:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280569\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18.png 618w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18-194x300.png 194w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Lambert here: Big Mo shifts toward Trump, this week, even in WI (that is, if you ignore the entire concept of margin of error). Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be <sub>MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!<\/sub>.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"pundits\"\/>\u201cTwo Weeks to Go, but Only One Way to Stay Calm\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/22\/opinion\/harris-trump-polling-averages.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201c\u2018Keep calm and throw it in the average\u2019 is the best way for a voracious consumer of polling data to stay sane this election season\u2026. To put this year\u2019s post-Labor Day race into some historical polling context, I looked at how much one frequently cited polling average, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved going back through the 2008 election\u2026. In 2008, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain actually held close to a three-point lead in national polls, but by Election Day, things had swung heavily toward Barack Obama, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Obama leading by around seven points \u2014 a 10-point range of results over the course of about two months\u2026. . In 2020, a race in which Joe Biden consistently led in the national polls, the polling average still moved in a range from around Mr. Biden +6 to Mr. Biden +10. This year? Since Labor Day, the polls have moved from a high-water mark for Kamala Harris of +2.2 to a recent slim lead of just +0.9. So when we say the race is barely budging, it is <em>barely<\/em> budging,\u201d And: \u201cTrump\u2019s very well-defined brand image anchors the election, leaving a very narrow band in which the race can trade.\u201d I don\u2019t think an election is a market, or a vote is a trade. More: \u201d I also think there\u2019s the possibility that something methodological is behind the stability we see in the averages. Because some pollsters are weighting their surveys to a fairly fixed assumption about what the electorate will look like, including with regard to partisan makeup, it prevents numbers from moving as much as they might otherwise if the partisan makeup of their samples could float freely.\u201d \u2022 Hmm. <\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cJames Carville: Three Reasons I\u2019m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/opinion\/kamala-harris-win-election.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cMs. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain. Here are three reasons: [1] Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different\u2026 There simply do not seem to be enough voters \u2014 even in the battleground states \u2014 who turn out at Mr. Trump\u2019s behest anymore when he\u2019s simply preaching to his base. He has not learned from his electoral losses nor done the necessary work to assemble a broad electoral coalition in 2024. [2] Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves\u2026.. With her field operation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/13\/us\/politics\/trump-harris-campaign-ground-game.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">moving like a tremendous machine<\/a>, it seems likely there has never been a greater disparity in voter contact efforts\u2026. [3] It\u2019s just a feeling. My final reason is 100 percent emotional. We are constantly told that America is too divided, too hopelessly stricken by tribalism, to grasp the stakes. That is plain wrong\u2026. In two weeks, we not only have a chance to elect Kamala Harris as president, but a chance to bring finality to the sordid career of Donald Trump and drive MAGA into a prolonged remission.\u201d \u2022 \u201cRemission,\u201d eh?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHere\u2019s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don\u2019t Trust Anyone\u2019s Gut, Even Mine\u201d [Nate Silver, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/opinion\/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it. Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: \u2018C\u2019mon, Nate, what\u2019s your gut say?\u2019 So OK, I\u2019ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.\u201d On the polling: \u201cInstead [of shy Trump voters], the likely problem is what pollsters call nonresponse bias\u2026.. Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past. There\u2019s no guarantee any of this will work. If Mr. Trump does beat his polling, there will have been at least one clear sign of it: Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification \u2014 about as many people now identify as Republicans.\u201d But: \u201cHere\u2019s another counterintuitive finding: It\u2019s surprisingly likely that the election won\u2019t be a photo finish\u2026. With polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one the industry experienced in 2016 or 2020 could produce a comfortable Electoral College victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. According to my model, there\u2019s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states\u2026. Don\u2019t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards \u2014 or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people\u2019s guts might tell them.\u201d \u2022 I guess we\u2019ll see!<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe electorate is changing. Here\u2019s what that means for Trump and Harris\u201d [Ron Brownstein, <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/10\/22\/politics\/changing-electorate-trump-harris-analysis\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CNN<\/a>]. \u201cThe groups that Harris needs to give her winning margins are the non-White and college-educated White voters (especially women in each case). The fact that both of those groups are increasing in the electorate, while Trump\u2019s best cohort is shrinking, may give Harris a small swell in her sails. \u201cThe growing parts of the population are leaning Democrat, even in this time\u201d when so many voters are discontented with conditions in the country, Frey said. The fact that women are likely to cast more ballots than men in all the swing states, he believes, will provide a small lift to Harris as well.\u201d \u2022 Abortion + the war machine seems to be Harris\u2019s view of a winning formula for college-educated White women\u2026 Commentary:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump’s base of non-college White voters.<\/p>\n<p>This is key because they make up a ton of the electorate, especially in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she’s holding her own in MI, PA & WI. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ww9pnp3DxY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/ww9pnp3DxY<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ForecasterEnten\/status\/1848359901354996117\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 21, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cDonald Trump Losing \u2018Core Group\u2019 Vital in 3 Battleground States\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polls-non-college-educated-white-1972947\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Newsweek<\/a>]. \u201cPolitical analyst Harry Enten\u2019s analysis shows Trump is leading nationally among noncollege educated white voters by 27 points, down from 31 points in 2020 and 33 points in 2016. \u2018That might not seem like a lot, but given that we\u2019re seeing these double digit gains among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we\u2019re seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that\u2019s a rather interesting development,\u2019 Enten said\u2026 Enten said that the shift mattered because noncollege educated white voters make up 40 percent of the electorate nationally, but 51 percent of the electorate in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin\u2026. \u2018,\u2019 Enten explained. Enten\u2019s analysis also revealed that Trump\u2019s vote share among noncollege educated white voters is declining in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with his lead currently standing at 19 points, compared to 22 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016. \u2018,\u2019 Enten said. \u2018And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts among smaller groups in the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris is still in the ball game right now.’\u201d \u2022 Hmm.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c2024 Election Could Hinge on Tiny Shifts in the Electorate\u201d [Ed Kilgore, <a href=\"https:\/\/nymag.com\/intelligencer\/article\/2024-election-demographic-change.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Magazine<\/a>]. \u201d This apparently very close presidential election reflects a deeply divided electorate where the potential changes in either direction we all talk about constantly are glacial and arguably self-canceling..,. Very big differences in the direction of the country will flow from tiny shifts in one direction or another of a closely divided electorate. It\u2019s why anxiety levels are so high right now among those paying avid attention to politics, even though the outcome may depend on \u201clow-propensity voters\u201d barely paying attention at all.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cCitizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/citizen-forecasting-of-the-2024-presidential-election-last-soundings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Larry Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/a>]. \u201cAsking people who they believe will win the election, as opposed to who they are going to vote for, can be an effective tool for trying to figure out who is favored in an election. A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win during the summer, but more recently these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris.\u201d A Keynsian beauty contest! More: \u201cA growing body of evidence indicates that \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/british-journal-of-political-science\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasting-can-voters-see-into-the-future\/997F71FA348ED48B613CDAC3138CE7EA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">citizen forecasting<\/a>\u2018 (CF), as the latter method has been called, makes for more accurate predictions of the winner. Indeed, studies of CF in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/political-science-research-and-methods\/article\/what-to-expect-when-youre-electing-citizen-forecasts-in-the-2020-election\/E9FC32C12DFD4E53B3CE551D681F8AB3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">United States<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0261379410001010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">United Kingdom<\/a>, as well as work on other democracies (such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0169207018301274\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Canada<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/ps-political-science-and-politics\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasting-the-2022-french-presidential-election\/0FBB7FDC3FAF7F41A2E99C595D7753AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">France<\/a>, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/ps-political-science-and-politics\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasts-of-the-2021-german-election\/EDDAD6C5A36D9518A5D8D970B29A0660\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Germany<\/a>) have demonstrated that voter expectations outperform voter intentions in terms of predictive accuracy, yielding a higher level of statistical and substantive significance. Inspired by this impressive track record, we have been systematically recording citizen forecasts with regard to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, via nationally representative samples of American voters, as drawn by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verasight.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Verasight<\/a> survey team.\u201d And: \u201cThis current citizen forecast points to a Harris victory in November.\u201d But: \u201cVerasight polls conducted June 20-26, July 20-22, Aug. 20-26, . N = 750 for all four polls.\u201d \u2022 The last polling was still during Harris\u2019s honeymoon period, three weeks ago. And that\u2019s a long time in politics.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWill long COVID sway the 2024 election? These Rutgers researchers think it could\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northjersey.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2024\/10\/21\/voters-with-long-covid-disability-a-rising-force-rutgers-study-says\/75720912007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">USA Today<\/a>]. \u201cAn aging U.S. population and the rise of long COVID mean voters with disabilities may have more of an impact on the upcoming election than ever before, a new Rutgers University <a href=\"https:\/\/smlr.rutgers.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Documents\/Centers\/Program_Disability_Research\/Disability_Electorate_Projections_Report_Oct2024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">report<\/a> finds\u2026. Between aging, long COVID and other factors, one in six eligible voters in the U.S. now has a disability of some type, the Rutgers researchers found. That\u2019s double the growth rate of voters without disabilities, their report said\u2026. Historically, these voters have splintered into smaller groups, each lobbying for its specific needs to deal with developmental disabilities, mobility challenges or other issues. But the various communities came together during the pandemic around imperatives like access to health care and employment, Schur said\u2026. \u2018Overall, there is no real partisan advantage. When there was a blue wave in 2018, people with disabilities were part of the blue wave. There wasn\u2019t really a big difference, and I don\u2019t expect a really big difference this year,\u2019 [Douglas] Kruse said. \u2018But it is true, as Lisa [Schur] says, that health care is more important to people with disabilities. And I think that tends to favor the Democrats.’\u201d That might depend on what their experience with the health care system actually is. And: \u201cOne more fact about potential voters with disabilities heading to the polls across the country this year: There will be more women (21.6 million) than men (18.6 million). That breaks down into 411,300 men and 533,900 women in New Jersey. The group of adults affected swells to 72.7 million \u2014 one in three eligible voters \u2014 after adding those who live with someone with a disability. Thought about that way, the electorate with disabilities now surpasses the Hispanic\/Latino and Black voting demographics in the U.S., Kruse and Schur noted.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cThe Clock Is Ticking on Kamala Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/magazine\/2024\/10\/22\/kamala-harris-reassure-voters-liberal-00184879\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Politico<\/a>]. \u201cThe evening\u2019s moderator, Wisconsin conservative talk show host turned anti-Trump writer Charlie Sykes, opened with the political equivalent of a fastball down the middle of the plate. Perched beneath a \u2018Country Over Party sign,\u2019 Sykes asked Harris for her pitch to the voter who supported Republicans from yesteryear but are uneasy now about casting a ballot for a Democrat. The vice president began by citing \u2018the lived experience\u2019 of most Americans \u2014 sounding more like a graduate student from down the road in Madison than most Americans \u2014 of having much in common. She repeated a line from her stump speech about how Americans \u2018love our country\u2019 before praising democracy, the rule of law and the Constitution. Then, making a little progress, she invoked her service on the Senate Intelligence Committee, where lawmakers from both parties put aside partisanship to focus on protecting the \u2018security and well-being\u2019 of all Americans. That, Harris concluded, \u2018is at stake.\u2019 That was it. Harris said nothing specific about how she\u2019d govern, mentioned no looming issue on which she\u2019d work with Republicans and offered no reassurances about leading the country from the political center. And, of course, there was no critique of her own party or even an expression of sympathy or understanding about why voting for a liberal could be difficult for a longtime conservative. There wasn\u2019t even a reference to her previous commitments to include a Republican in the Cabinet or create a bipartisan council of advisers. And this was in response to the opening question from a pre-selected moderator who is supporting her campaign!\u201d \u2022 Everything about this is bad: the candidate, the staffwork, and the net effect on those invested in her, like Sykes, who might well feel they\u2019d been played.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"kamala\"\/>Kamala (D): What Kamala said:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Hallie Jackson asked Harris yesterday: “Can you say that you were honest with the American people about what you saw in those moments with President Biden, as you were with him again and again repeatedly in that time?” <\/p>\n<p>Harris: “Of course. Joe Biden is an extremely accomplished,\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HMykeLm5MD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/HMykeLm5MD<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1849101499260944573\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>What others saw:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">At a Chevy Chase fundraiser in June 2023, Bill Reichblum tells Woodward of Biden: \u201cHe never completed a sentence\u2026.He told the same story three times in exactly the same way and it meandered so much\u2026Frankly, my impression was there were times\u2026it was as though we didn\u2019t exist.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Vav7clSMGQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/Vav7clSMGQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1849093668746969149\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>I suppose a Democrat loyalist would say \u201cShe has to say that,\u201d but it sticks in my craw. And Biden is also, we may forget, still President. Why is that OK?<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cDetroit Muslim leader ejected from Kamala Harris rally, deepening rift between Democrats and Arab Americans\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metrotimes.com\/news\/detroit-muslim-leader-ejected-from-kamala-harris-rally-deepening-rift-between-democrats-and-arab-americans-37670193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Detroit Metro Times<\/a>]. \u201cAhmed Ghanim, a Democrat, says he accepted an invitation to the event and was seated in the Royal Oak Music Theatre when a campaign organizer ordered him to leave. \u2018She took me to the door, and she closed it, and I found two police officers waiting there, and she said, \u2018You have to leave right now,\u201d Ghanim tells Metro Times. \u2018I asked why she was kicking me out. She wouldn\u2019t answer. I was very calmly asking why I was being kicked out.\u2019 He continues, \u2018I was just wearing a suit and a white shirt. I said, \u2018OK,\u2019 and I left. The police officer said, \u2018You either leave now or I\u2019ll put you in the back of my car.’\u201d Nice. The Harris campaign statementL \u201cThe campaign was swiftly informed by Emgage Action [Ghanim\u2019s organizaiton] of yesterday\u2019s incident and looked into it,\u2019 the statement reads, referring to a Muslim American advocacy group. \u2018Our campaign regrets this action and its impact on Dr. Ghanim and the community, and he is welcome at future events. We value our relationship with the Muslim American community and are committed to ensuring all community and political spaces are welcoming and respectful to every American.’\u201d \u2022 Terrible staffwork, both in Ghanim\u2019s ejection and the statement (in which the word \u201capologize\u201d does not appear). Despite the statements blah blah blah, it looks to me like the Harris campaign <em>already<\/em> had the cops wired up, and had a list (with photos) of attendees to bar.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cWhat Kamala Harris Needs to Do to Win Over More Black Men\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/what-kamala-harris-needs-to-do-to-win-over-more-black-men\/ar-AA1sM4kb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Magazine<\/a>]. \u201cDemocrats have known since Hillary Clinton\u2019s loss in 2016 that carrying the all-important industrial midwestern states requires maximum turnout in the Black communities of Detroit, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. The problem is that Dems have assumed they could generate Obama-era levels of excitement for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden \u2014 and now Kamala Harris \u2014 without a substantial, sustained political investment up front.\u201d And: \u201c\u2018You\u2019re going to pick on Black men and blame us for everything. What did you deliver to Black men in the past four years?\u2019 the activist and commentator Van Jones said at a recent university discussion in California. \u2018We wanted the George Floyd police-reform act. Didn\u2019t get it. We wanted the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Didn\u2019t get it. And we wanted the EQUAL Act, the next step in criminal justice reform, and didn\u2019t get that. Three things we wanted, and we got zero, zilch, nunca, nada, nothing.\u2019 By contrast, Jones noted, Trump signed the First Step Act, which granted early release from federal prison to more than 30,000 people \u2014 a monumental rollback of mass incarceration that Democrats rarely discuss.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Hmm.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NEWS <\/p>\n<p>Vice President Kamala Harris is planning to deliver her closing argument Tuesday in a speech on the National Mall. <\/p>\n<p>Sources tell the Washington Post that Harris\u2019 speech will talk about January 6 but will focus more broadly on her thoughts on Trump\u2019s threat to democracy.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FVM52Jl01q\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/FVM52Jl01q<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Yashar Ali \ud83d\udc18 (@yashar) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yashar\/status\/1849139992960061644?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Chutzpah. Even Obama 2012 didn\u2019t do that. I grant that the setting tops Carlson and Rogan.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): Biden on the trail:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Biden in NH lists what Trump would do as president and says: \u201cwe gotta lock him up\u201d and then, appearing to realize how his comments would be taken, adds: \u201cpolitically, lock him up.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cw3X8RzKn2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/cw3X8RzKn2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1848846678138183726\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Thanks, Joe. We knew what you meant.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"trump\"\/>Trump (R): Media blitz (1):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Here we go! \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">@realDonaldTrump<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bgja6JPqsQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/bgja6JPqsQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Joe Rogan Podcast (@joeroganhq) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joeroganhq\/status\/1848824394250129550\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>JRE = Joe Rogan Experience.<\/p>\n<p>Trump (R): Media blitz (2):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Our live tour is not over yet. For the grand finale, we\u2019ll be in Glendale, AZ, on October 31st with special guest President Donald J. Trump. All profits will be donated to hurricane relief efforts. We hope to see you there.<\/p>\n<p>Get tickets to our biggest show yet at\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/00756VvITT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/00756VvITT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TuckerCarlson\/status\/1849127742727508416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Trump (R) (Willis\/McAfee): \u201cSpecial prosecutor in Georgia\u2019s case against Trump met with Biden officials\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2024\/oct\/21\/nathan-wade-special-prosecutor-in-georgias-case-ag\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Washington Times<\/a>]. \u201cNathan Wade, who led the Fulton County election interference case against Donald Trump while having an affair with District Attorney Fani Willis, admitted to congressional investigators he met with White House officials several times but claimed he couldn\u2019t remember the details\u2026. Ms. Willis hired Mr. Wade even though he was a divorce lawyer with little experience prosecuting criminal cases. In 2022, he was paid nearly $700,000 to oversee the case against the former president, according to a co-defendant seeking to have the charges dismissed\u2026.. Mr. Wade acknowledged the Biden administration\u2019s involvement in the case during the interview that was conducted on Oct. 15 by committee investigators. He verified the existence of invoices he submitted in which he billed for a \u2018Conf. with White House counsel\u2019 in Athens, Georgia, on May 23, 2022. When asked about each of the invoices obtained by investigators, Mr. Wade responded 58 times that he couldn\u2019t remember details.\u201d \u2022 What reason could the White House possibly have for getting involved in a state prosectution? Seems odd.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cElon Musk \u2018Jokes\u2019 in a Church About Someone Killing Kamala Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rollingstone.com\/politics\/politics-news\/elon-musk-harris-trump-assassination-joke-church-1235139632\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Rolling Stone<\/a>]. \u201cElon Musk keeps trying to stick his \u2018joke\u2019 about somebody assassinating Vice President Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, Musk remarked, again, that \u2018no one\u2019s even bothering to try to kill Kamala\u2019 \u2026 Acting as a Donald Trump surrogate \u2014 in addition to the $75 million moneyman behind a leading Trump Super PAC \u2014 Musk spoke Saturday night at the Life Center megachurch in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which is notable for launching the career of Christian supremacist God-rocker Sean Feucht.\u201d \u2022 I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if Musk\u2019s involvement, at all levels, didn\u2019t turn out to be a net negative. He\u2019s a loose cannon, and the Trump campaign doesn\u2019t need two. (I\u2019d like a lot less Musk, and a lot more Kennedy. I wouldn\u2019t call Kennedy a loose cannon, so much as his own cannon. Apparently, a Townall with Trump, Kennedy, and Tulsi was cancelled; unfortunate, in my view).<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>AZ: Impressive:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Arizona Dem running against Kari Lake foe the US Senate, RUBEN GALLEGO, had promised to visit all 22 of the state’s federally recognized tribes. But there was no road leading into the Havasupai village of 639 people. So he trekked in on foot. It took him 4 hours to walk there.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Lise Horton Is Writing (@lisekimhorton) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/lisekimhorton\/status\/1847607680568840228\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 19, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Perhaps a stunt, but still impressive.<\/p>\n<p>GA: \u201cIn battleground Georgia, poor people see no reason to vote. That decision could sway election\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/battleground-georgia-poor-people-see-041119022.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Associated Press<\/a> (KLG)]. \u201cLocated about 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Atlanta, Bibb County is the kind of place where Vice President Kamala Harris would need to run up her margin in order to defeat Donald Trump in this year\u2019s election, a strategy that helped Biden win the state four years ago as he promised to lift up Black Americans. It won\u2019t be easy: Bibb County never recovered all the jobs lost during the pandemic, and Labor Department data show it had more jobs in 2019 under Trump than it does now. Trump, the former president, sees himself as having an opportunity with Black voters, particularly men. But he and Harris have one thing in common: Each will have a difficult time persuading people to turn out who typically sit out elections. More than 47,000 people in Bibb County were eligible to vote in 2020 and didn\u2019t, a figure roughly four times Biden\u2019s margin of victory across the entire state.\u201d But: \u201cBut the more nonurban parts of Georgia are only part of the electoral puzzle. <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/michelle-obama-georgia-younger-voters-harris-curry-85c45be7377a84d04362050664ac44c8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">It\u2019s a dramatically different story in Atlanta<\/a> and its vote-rich suburbs where enthusiasm runs high for both Harris and Trump, although often divided by race.\u201d However: \u201cNonvoters have basic, urgent needs the campaigns don\u2019t address.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>NV: \u201cThe early voting blog, 2024\u201d [John Ralston (ick), <a href=\"https:\/\/thenevadaindependent.com\/article\/the-early-voting-blog-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Nevada Independent<\/a>]. \u201cRurals matter. Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds\u2026.. Dems are only winning the urban Nevada ballot race by 1 percent \u2013 38-37. Repubs have a nearly 3 percent turnout advantage statewide.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Interesting, but early days yet.<\/p>\n<p>NV: \u201cAs Harris Courts Sun Belt, Housing Costs Stand in Her Way\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/21\/us\/politics\/2024-campaign-las-vegas-nevada-housing.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn a state that relies on hourly wage workers in tourism and service jobs, many cannot find an affordable place to live\u2026 Many working-class voters say a promise has been broken, and they are looking for someone to blame\u2026 Many once-reliable Democrats say the issue has eroded their trust in politicians. In the state\u2019s Democratic hub, that means turning away from Vice President Kamala Harris. \u2018When we got the new president, I didn\u2019t hear nothing, I didn\u2019t see any changes,\u2019 Maria Ocampo, 54, who has voted Democratic for decades, said of the Biden administration. This year, she does not plan to vote at all.\u201d \u2022 Innocent bystander: \u201cWasn\u2019t Lina Khan working on price-gouging landlords?\u201d Harris Campaign: \u201cWho?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Realignment and Legitimacy<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cEarly-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/4LoTv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">WaPo<\/a>] \u201cDemocrats have embraced early voting for years, in part because it leaves less to chance on Election Day, when busy schedules, bad weather or illness can keep voters from making it to the polls. Known as \u201cbanking\u201d votes, early voting also allows campaigns to be more efficient with resources as Election Day draws near by focusing attention on a smaller and smaller group of voters who have not yet cast ballots.\u201d \u2022 Another way of saying this is that early voting skews toward partisans who don\u2019t actually need to study what the candidates are saying. Why we are allowing that population, and the convenience of party operatives, to drive how our elections are run is an open question.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Syndemics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk&null=Risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>); Wastewater (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>, <del><a href=\"https:\/\/biobot.io\/data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Biobot<\/a><\/del>; includes many counties; <a href=\"https:\/\/data.wastewaterscan.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Wastewater Scan<\/a>, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.walgreens.com\/businesssolutions\/covid-19-index.jsp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Walgreens<\/a>); \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/iowacovid19tracker.org\/hospitals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Iowa COVID-19 Tracker<\/a>\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/icemsg.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts<\/a>\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n<p>Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n<p>Resources, United States (Local): AK (<a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/af2efc8bffbf4cdc83c2d1a134354074\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AL (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AR (<a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/633006d0782b4544bd5113a314f6268a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AZ (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.azdhs.gov\/covid19\/data\/index.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); CA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdph.ca.gov\/Programs\/CID\/DCDC\/Pages\/COVID-19\/CalSuWers-Dashboard.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.marinhhs.org\/surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Marin, dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/healthalerts.stanford.edu\/covid-19\/wastewater-dashboard\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Stanford, wastewater<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/publichealth.verily.com\/?v=SC2_N&l=Oakland%2C+CA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Oakland, wastewater<\/a>); CO (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.colorado.gov\/data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/cdphe.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/d79cf93c3938470ca4bcc4823328946b#utility=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); CT (<a href=\"https:\/\/data.ct.gov\/stories\/s\/COVID-19-data\/wa3g-tfvc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); DE (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.delaware.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); FL (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/5b9d75ba683849928dc1a49c39ab0b1c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); GA (<a href=\"https:\/\/dph.georgia.gov\/ga-nwss-wastewater-surveillance-reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); HI (<a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronavirusdisease2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); IA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dmmwra.org\/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=57\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater reports<\/a>); ID (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.idahopublichealth.com\/district-2\/novel-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, Boise; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.idahopublichealth.com\/district-2\/novel-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.wastewaterscan.org\/?plantId=1056f05c-0e46-4e3d-b007-c0453ba7dc0d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Central Idaho; <a href=\"https:\/\/publichealth.verily.com\/#:SARS-CoV-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.srhd.org\/topics\/spokane-county-case-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Spokane County<\/a>); IL (<a href=\"https:\/\/iwss.uillinois.edu\/wastewater-treatment-plants\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); IN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coronavirus.in.gov\/indiana-covid-19-dashboard-and-map\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); KS (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov\/160\/COVID-19-in-Kansas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/4456bae8a38f4b6180e008477382fff9\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Lawrence); KY (<a href=\"https:\/\/louisville.edu\/envirome\/thecoimmunityproject\/dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, Louisville); LA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ldh.la.gov\/coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mass.gov\/info-details\/covid-19-wastewater-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MD (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.maryland.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); ME (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.maine.gov\/dhhs\/mecdc\/infectious-disease\/epi\/airborne\/coronavirus\/data.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MI (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.michigan.gov\/coronavirus\/stats\/wastewater-surveillance\/dashboard\/sentinel-wastewater-epidemiology-evaluation-project-sweep\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/gisportal.state.mi.us\/portal\/apps\/insights\/index.html#\/view\/52bbb104ed574887918f990af9f3debe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.health.state.mn.us\/diseases\/coronavirus\/stats\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MO (<a href=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/f7f5492486114da6b5d6fdc07f81aacf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MS (<a href=\"https:\/\/msdh.ms.gov\/page\/14,0,420.html#Mississippi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); <del>MT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/MapSeries\/index.html?appid=7c34f3412536439491adcc2103421d4b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>)<\/del>; NC (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.ncdhhs.gov\/dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard)<\/a>; ND (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hhs.nd.gov\/health\/coronavirus\/cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hhs.nd.gov\/health\/coronavirus\/cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); NE (<a href=\"https:\/\/atlas-dhhs.ne.gov\/Atlas\/Respiratory_Illness\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NH (<a href=\"https:\/\/wisdom.dhhs.nh.gov\/wisdom\/dashboard.html?topic=covid-19&subtopic=recurring-updates&indicator=covid-19-wastewater#tabnavbarid\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); NJ (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.nj.gov\/forms\/datadashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NM (<a href=\"https:\/\/cvprovider.nmhealth.org\/public-dashboard.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NV (<a href=\"https:\/\/nvhealthresponse.nv.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/empower.unlv.edu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Southern NV); NY (<a href=\"https:\/\/mbcolli.shinyapps.io\/SARS2EWSP\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); OH (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.ohio.gov\/dashboards\/other-resources\/wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); OK (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/51657c21386d4f1a962b1853c76ec589\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); <del>OR (<a href=\"https:\/\/public.tableau.com\/app\/profile\/oregon.health.authority.covid.19\/viz\/OregonsCOVID-19DataDashboards-TableofContents\/TableofContentsStatewide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>)<\/del>; PA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.health.pa.gov\/topics\/disease\/coronavirus\/pages\/Cases.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); RI (<a href=\"https:\/\/ri-department-of-health-covid-19-data-rihealth.hub.arcgis.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); SC (<a href=\"https:\/\/scdhec.gov\/index.php\/covid19\/covid-19-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); SD (<a href=\"https:\/\/doh.sd.gov\/COVID\/Dashboard.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); TN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tn.gov\/health\/cedep\/ncov\/data.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); TX (<a href=\"https:\/\/txdshsea.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/4ae43eefd0f641d59d35c3df82ee59cc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); UT (<a href=\"https:\/\/avrpublic.dhhs.utah.gov\/uwss\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); VA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vdh.virginia.gov\/coronavirus\/sars-cov-2-in-wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); VT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.healthvermont.gov\/disease-control\/covid-19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); WA (<a href=\"https:\/\/doh.wa.gov\/emergencies\/covid-19\/data-dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.bfhd.wa.gov\/cases-and-roadmap-to-recovery\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); WI (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhs.wisconsin.gov\/covid-19\/wastewater.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); WV (<del><a href=\"https:\/\/oehs.wvdhhr.org\/news\/oehs-coivd-19-information\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a><\/del>); WY (<del><a href=\"https:\/\/covidwastewatermonitor.wyo.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a><\/del>).<\/p>\n<p>Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (<a href=\"https:\/\/health-infobase.canada.ca\/covid-19\/wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Government of Canada<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.publichealthontario.ca\/en\/Data-and-Analysis\/Infectious-Disease\/COVID-19-Data-Surveillance\/Wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); QC (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.inspq.qc.ca\/covid-19\/donnees\/eaux-usees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><em>les eaux us\u00e9es<\/em><\/a>); BC (<a href=\"https:\/\/bccdc.shinyapps.io\/respiratory_wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); BC, Vancouver (<a href=\"https:\/\/metrovancouver.org\/services\/liquid-waste\/testing-for-the-covid-19-virus-in-wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n<p>Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n<p>Airborne Transmission: Covid<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cTransmission of SARS-CoV-2 on aircraft: A scoping review\u201d (preprint) [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.22.24315911v1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">medRxiv<\/a>]. From the Abstract: \u201cThis review summarises reported contact-tracing data and evaluates the secondary attack rates (SAR) and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission in aircraft, to provide insight for future decision making in the context of future respiratory pandemics\u2026. Our results are consistent with sporadic clusters happening onboard aircraft. Close proximity to COVID-19 cases within the aircraft was associated with a higher [secondary attack rates (SAR)].\u201d \u2022 Sitting closer to the aisle and moving about the cabin is also associated with greater risk. In addition, transmission will also depend on the ventilation patterns in any given aircraft.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Infection: Covid<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIncident COVID-19 infections before Omicron in the US\u201d (preprint) [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.18.24315777v1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">medRxiv<\/a>]. From the Abstract: \u201c[W]e retrospectively estimate daily incident infections for each U.S. state prior to Omicron. To this end, reported COVID-19 cases are deconvolved to their date of infection onset using delay distributions estimated from the CDC line list. Then, a novel serology-driven model is used to scale these deconvolved cases to account for the unreported infections. The resulting infections incorporate variant-specific incubation periods, reinfections, and waning antigenic immunity. They clearly demonstrate that the reported cases fail to reflect the full extent of disease burden in all states. Most notably, , with an estimated reporting rate as low as 6.3% in New Jersey, 7.3% in Maryland, and 8.4% in Nevada. Moreover, . Therefore, while reported cases offer a convenient proxy of disease burden, they fail to capture the full extent of infections, and can severely underestimate the true disease burden.\u201d Here is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.18.24315777v1.full.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">a summary of the method<\/a>: \u201cFirst, we estimate the delays from positive specimen to report date and use them to push back the reported cases to their sample collection dates. Next, we estimate the delay from symptom onset to sample collection, combine this with variant-specific infection-to-symptom delays, and use these to push back the cases to infection onset. The resulting case estimates are aggregated across variant categories and adjusted by the case ascertainment ratio, estimated with seroprevalence survey data and a model for antigenic immunity.\u201d This is above my paygrade. Perhaps an epidemiologist in the readership can comment.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Elite Maleficence<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Still killing people:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uP4sCT0VCy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/uP4sCT0VCy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Nate Bear (@NateB_Panic) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateB_Panic\/status\/1848803543643525357\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"table\"\/><strong>TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Wastewater<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> This week[1] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 14<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Last Week[2] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> (until next week):<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280716\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" style=\"align: left; margin-left: 0px !important; padding: 9px 0 9px 0;\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong> Variants<\/strong> [3] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery#variant-proportions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> <strong>Emergency Room Visits<\/strong>[4] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_select_7dayeddiagnosed_00\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl-300x235.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280570\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl-300x176.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Hospitalization<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: gold;\">\u2605<\/span> New York[5] <a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.health.ny.gov\/daily-hospitalization-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York State<\/a>, data October 22:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> National [6] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/covidnetdashboard\/de\/powerbi\/dashboard.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 28:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280887\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9-300x189.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280573\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2-258x300.png 258w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Positivity<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> National[7] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.walgreens.com\/healthcare-solutions\/covid-19-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Walgreens<\/a> October 21:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Ohio[8] <a href=\"https:\/\/clevelandcliniclabs.com\/respiratory-virus-surveillance-statistics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Cleveland Clinic<\/a> October 19:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2-300x168.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280799\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2-300x195.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Travelers Data<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> Positivity[9] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#traveler-genomic-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 30:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Variants[10] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#traveler-genomic-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 30:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280574\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280575\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2-300x211.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Deaths<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] <a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronavirusdisease2019\/what-you-should-know\/current-situation-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] <a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronadisease2019\/what-you-should-know\/current-situation-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280572\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl-300x178.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1-300x177.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<td>\n<p><strong>LEGEND<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1) <span style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: gold;\">\u2605<\/span> for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n<p>2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOTES<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[1] (CDC) Good news!<\/p>\n<p>[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n<p>[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.<\/p>\n<p>[4] (ED) Down.<\/p>\n<p>[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.<\/p>\n<p>[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the \u201ceverything in greenish pastels\u201d crowd has gotten to this chart.<\/p>\n<p>[7] (Walgreens) A pause.<\/p>\n<p>[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.<\/p>\n<p>[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.<\/p>\n<p>[10] (Travelers: Variants). No XEC.<\/p>\n<p>[11] Deaths low, positivity down.<\/p>\n<p>[12] Deaths low, ED down.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stats Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There are no official statistics of interest today.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"boeing\"\/>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing\u2019s bad year just keeps getting worse: One of its satellites has exploded in orbit, with debris becoming a potential threat to other satellites\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/10\/23\/boeing-satellite-explodes-in-orbit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Fortune<\/a>]. \u201cA Boeing-made communications satellite has exploded, with debris floating that could potentially be a threat to other satellites at some point. Intelsat, the owner of the satellite, is reporting \u201cthe total loss\u201d of the device in an update on its Website. The company is working with Boeing and government agencies to determine the cause of the mishap\u2026. The U.S. Space Force says it is tracking 20 pieces of debris from the destroyed satellite and there was no immediate threat to other orbiting space equipment. Other observers, though, have seen higher amounts of debris. ExoAnalytic Solutions told SpaceNews it was tracking 57 pieces of debris and was warning operators of spacecraft that could be at risk of collision. And Russia\u2019s space agency said it was tracking more than 80 fragments.\u201d \u2022 Oopsie.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing reports $6 billion quarterly loss as striking workers vote whether to accept contract offer\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lakelandtoday.ca\/national-business\/boeing-reports-6-billion-quarterly-loss-as-striking-workers-vote-whether-to-accept-contract-offer-9697212\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Associated Press<\/a>]. \u201d Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of more than $6 billion before turning its attention to whether striking factory workers would accept a contract offer Wednesday and end a walkout that has crippled the company\u2019s airplane production for nearly six weeks\u2026. Boeing hasn\u2019t had a profitable year since 2018, and Wednesday\u2019s numbers represented the second-worst quarter in the manufacturer\u2019s history.The company burned nearly $2 billion in cash, in the quarter, weakening its balance sheet, which is loaded down with $58 billion in debt. Chief Financial Officer Brian West said the company will burn cash through 2025, but at a slower pace.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing\u2019s New C.E.O. Calls for \u2018Culture Change\u2019 as Strike Vote Looms\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/business\/boeing-earnings-strike-vote.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn a message to employees, Mr. Ortberg shared a speech that he planned to deliver to investor analysts on a call later in the day to discuss Boeing\u2019s quarterly financial results. In it, he offered a diagnosis: The company had lost too much trust, gained too much debt and made too many mistakes. To put Boeing back on the right path would require \u2018fundamental culture change,\u2019 stabilizing the business and improving execution. \u2018Our leaders, from me on down, need to be closely integrated with our business and the people who are doing the design and production of our products,\u2019 he said. \u2018We need to be on the factory floors, in the back shops and in our engineering labs. We need to know what\u2019s going on, not only with our products, but with our people.’\u201d \u2022 Fine. Restore defined-benefit pensions (and put a union member on the Board, as I keep screaming). <a href=\"https:\/\/boeing.mediaroom.com\/news-releases-statements?item=131499\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Here are Ortberg\u2019s complete remarks<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cIntelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/spacenews.com\/intelsat-33e-loses-power-in-geostationary-orbit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Space News<\/a>]. \u201cAn Intelsat spokesperson said the satellite was not insured at the time of the issue.\u201d \u2022 Surely not wise, with a Boeing product?<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 71 Greed (previous close: 73 Extreme Greed) [<a href=\"https:\/\/money.cnn.com\/data\/fear-and-greed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CNN<\/a>]. One week ago: 66 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 22 at 2:37:54 PM ET.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gallery<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One of my favorite flowers:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Monet, Irises <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ElVphj6eDM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/ElVphj6eDM<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Impressions (@impression_ists) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/impression_ists\/status\/1848069935504708031\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 20, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"class\"\/><strong>Class Warfare<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Tech Coup: A New Book Shows How the Unchecked Power of Companies Is Destabilizing Governance\u201d (interview) [<a href=\"https:\/\/hai.stanford.edu\/news\/tech-coup-new-book-shows-how-unchecked-power-companies-destabilizing-governance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Stanford University<\/a>]. Interview with Stanford institute for Human-Centered AI Policy Fellow Marietje Schaake. \u201c<em>In what ways are private companies increasingly taking on functions normally assumed by states?<\/em> In the digital realm, companies\u2019 control of information, unfettered agency, and power to act have almost overtaken that of governments. For example, in the private intelligence sector, companies like NSO Group Technologies with its Pegasus spyware products are creating and selling the capability to hack into people\u2019s devices. This means that anyone with the financial resources to purchase Pegasus spyware can access the capabilities of intelligence services and hack into the very private information of political opponents, judges, journalists, critical employees, competitors, and others. Another striking example is that of offensive cyber capabilities. In the name of defending their clients or their networks, companies are attacking hackers across borders, using \u2018offense as defense.\u2019 And notice that I\u2019m talking not only about big tech companies but also small ones, because there\u2019s de facto power that comes from the development of digital technologies.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><a name=\"wired\"\/><strong>News of the Wired<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cHow Your Brain Detects Patterns without Conscious Thought\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/how-your-brain-detects-patterns-without-conscious-thought\/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Scientific American<\/a>]. \u201cIn an experimental trial, participants viewed a series of the face images\u2026. During the experiment, neurons in each participant\u2019s hippocampus and entorhinal cortex gradually began to respond not only to the face being presented but also to faces directly connected to it on the triangle. When asked whether they noticed any pattern in the order of the images, the participants said they didn\u2019t. But their brain cells still learnt the pattern, showing that the brain can recognize patterns without conscious awareness. In the breaks between trials, the participants\u2019 \u2018face\u2019 neurons replayed what they had learnt, cycling through the patterns on their own without being stimulated to do so. \u2018This is something that is not explicit, it is implicit. And the brain gets it, essentially, very quickly, and we can see those changes in the individual cells,\u2019 says Fried.\u201d \u2022 Patterns generally, or optimized for faces?<\/p>\n<p>For our numismatists:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Distribution of Roman Coins Found. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XC9X2E5jDR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/XC9X2E5jDR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Illegitimate Scholar\ud83e\udded (@ill_Scholar) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ill_Scholar\/status\/1843312874254750199\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 7, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Contact information for plants<\/strong>: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-22-2024.html\">here<\/a>. From SC:<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"800\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280889\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia-225x300.jpeg 225w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>SC writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\nFor more than a decade, I\u2019ve been intrigued by the genus Tithonia, aka \u201cMexican Sunflower.\u201d I first encountered it back in the \u201900s or early \u201910s when I read that it was used as green manure in parts of Africa, planted along the edges of fields and harvested for use as Nitrogen rich soil amendment. At first, I thought that it was fixing atmospheric Nitrogen but I later learned that it merely accumulates already-present soil Nitrogen into its tissues. It\u2019s a cheery, attractive plant, sort of a giant puff-ball of orange daisy-like blossoms. The blossoms are well-suited to the feeding anatomy of butterflies and hummingbirds. Starting in the mid-to-late \u201910s, I have been annually providing a bunch of these to a local social services agency that plants them outside its meeting rooms. The plants attract hummingbirds, which provide a morale boost to staff and clients. At, I think, clientele initiative, the agency subsequently started a horticulture sub-agenda in one of its programs, an on-site day partial care program for mentally-ill homeless people, and that has branched out into veggie, decorative and herb gardening at the agency site. <\/p>\n<p> A few years ago, a sibling planted two of these (of species T. Rotundifolia, that reputedly grows to 6\u2032 height) and aggressively watered them. They grew to the eaves of her house, 8\u2032 at least, and were so leafy and dense that you couldn\u2019t see through them. The plants had hundreds of blossoms and lots of hiding places, a kind of hummingbird heaven. Such a large plant from a small seed.<\/p>\n<p>This photo is of an example of T. speciosa (in my experience, less tall and bushy than rotundifolia), that reputedly reaches 4-5\u2032 height. A friend who regularly accepts plants from my \u201cbackyard nursery\u201d passed it further on. It was started from seed in mid-Winter 2024. The recipient evidently aggressively watered and fertilized it; the plant towers at 9\u2032. I wonder what the neighbors make of it.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Wow. I could really file this under \u201cLook for the helpers,\u201d too!<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"donate\"\/><strong>Readers<\/strong>: Water Cooler is a standalone entity <em>not<\/em> covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert\u2019s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! <em>Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage<\/em>. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n<p>Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-226891\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"606\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png 606w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution-300x190.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!<\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-alignleft\"><a href=\"#\" rel=\"nofollow\" onclick=\"window.print(); return false;\" title=\"Printer Friendly, PDF & Email\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;-webkit-box-shadow:none; -moz-box-shadow: none; box-shadow:none; padding:0; margin:0\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\" alt=\"Print Friendly, PDF & Email\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\nThis entry was posted in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/category\/water-cooler\" rel=\"category tag\">Water Cooler<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-23-2024.html\" title=\"2:00 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date updated\" datetime=\"2024-10-23T14:00:46-04:00\">October 23, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/author\/lambert-strether\" title=\"View all posts by Lambert Strether\" rel=\"author\">Lambert Strether<\/a><\/span><\/span>. <\/p>\n<div class=\"author-info\">\n<div class=\"author-description\">\n<h2>About Lambert Strether<\/h2>\n<p>Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (\u201cBecause markets\u201d). I don\u2019t much care about the \u201cism\u201d that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don\u2019t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.<br \/>\nTo me, the key issue \u2014 and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me \u2014 is the tens of thousands of excess \u201cdeaths from despair,\u201d as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics \u2014 even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton\u2019s wars created \u2014 bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow \u2014 currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press \u2014 a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let\u2019s call such voices \u201cthe left.\u201d Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn\u2019t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I\u2019ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n<nav class=\"nav-single\">\n<h3 class=\"assistive-text\">Post navigation<\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"nav-previous list-posts-older\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/the-logistics-great-game.html\" rel=\"prev\"><span class=\"meta-nav\">\u2190<\/span> The Great Game of Logistics<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"nav-next list-posts-newer\"\/><br \/>\n<\/nav>\n<footer id=\"colophon\" role=\"contentinfo\">\n<\/footer>\n<\/td>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-23-2024.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day I thought I would try some nightingales\u2026. Common Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, C\u00f3rdoba, Andaluc\u00eda, Spain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":86251,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,183],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-spotlight"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86250\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
I thought I would try some nightingales\u2026.<\/p>\n
<\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Common Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, C\u00f3rdoba, Andaluc\u00eda, Spain.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"#pundits\">2024 Opinion-havers opine<\/a>, two weeks out.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#trump\">Trump media blitz<\/a> (Rogan; Carlson).<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#kamala\">Kamala and Biden\u2019s decline<\/a> (her view vs. the donor\u2019s view).<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#boeing\">Boeing satellite explodes<\/a>; Ortberg seeks culture change.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Politics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>2024<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Less tjhwo weeks to go!<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/free.timeanddate.com\/countdown\/i8ubjj5e\/n179\/cf100\/cm0\/cu1\/ct0\/cs1\/ca0\/cr0\/ss0\/cac000\/cpc000\/pcfff\/tcfff\/fs100\/szw320\/szh135\/tatTime%20left%20to%20Election%20Day%2C%202024\/tac000\/tptTime%20since%20Event%20started%20in\/tpc000\/mac000\/mpc000\/iso2024-11-05T00:00:00\/bo2\/pd2\" allowtransparency=\"true\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"322\" height=\"137\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> <a name=\"rcp\"\/>Friday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">RCP<\/a> Poll Averages:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280569\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18.png 618w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-18-194x300.png 194w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Lambert here: Big Mo shifts toward Trump, this week, even in WI (that is, if you ignore the entire concept of margin of error). Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be <sub>MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!<\/sub>.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"pundits\"\/>\u201cTwo Weeks to Go, but Only One Way to Stay Calm\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/22\/opinion\/harris-trump-polling-averages.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201c\u2018Keep calm and throw it in the average\u2019 is the best way for a voracious consumer of polling data to stay sane this election season\u2026. To put this year\u2019s post-Labor Day race into some historical polling context, I looked at how much one frequently cited polling average, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved going back through the 2008 election\u2026. In 2008, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain actually held close to a three-point lead in national polls, but by Election Day, things had swung heavily toward Barack Obama, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Obama leading by around seven points \u2014 a 10-point range of results over the course of about two months\u2026. . In 2020, a race in which Joe Biden consistently led in the national polls, the polling average still moved in a range from around Mr. Biden +6 to Mr. Biden +10. This year? Since Labor Day, the polls have moved from a high-water mark for Kamala Harris of +2.2 to a recent slim lead of just +0.9. So when we say the race is barely budging, it is <em>barely<\/em> budging,\u201d And: \u201cTrump\u2019s very well-defined brand image anchors the election, leaving a very narrow band in which the race can trade.\u201d I don\u2019t think an election is a market, or a vote is a trade. More: \u201d I also think there\u2019s the possibility that something methodological is behind the stability we see in the averages. Because some pollsters are weighting their surveys to a fairly fixed assumption about what the electorate will look like, including with regard to partisan makeup, it prevents numbers from moving as much as they might otherwise if the partisan makeup of their samples could float freely.\u201d \u2022 Hmm. <\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cJames Carville: Three Reasons I\u2019m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/opinion\/kamala-harris-win-election.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cMs. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain. Here are three reasons: [1] Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different\u2026 There simply do not seem to be enough voters \u2014 even in the battleground states \u2014 who turn out at Mr. Trump\u2019s behest anymore when he\u2019s simply preaching to his base. He has not learned from his electoral losses nor done the necessary work to assemble a broad electoral coalition in 2024. [2] Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves\u2026.. With her field operation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/13\/us\/politics\/trump-harris-campaign-ground-game.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">moving like a tremendous machine<\/a>, it seems likely there has never been a greater disparity in voter contact efforts\u2026. [3] It\u2019s just a feeling. My final reason is 100 percent emotional. We are constantly told that America is too divided, too hopelessly stricken by tribalism, to grasp the stakes. That is plain wrong\u2026. In two weeks, we not only have a chance to elect Kamala Harris as president, but a chance to bring finality to the sordid career of Donald Trump and drive MAGA into a prolonged remission.\u201d \u2022 \u201cRemission,\u201d eh?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHere\u2019s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don\u2019t Trust Anyone\u2019s Gut, Even Mine\u201d [Nate Silver, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/opinion\/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it. Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: \u2018C\u2019mon, Nate, what\u2019s your gut say?\u2019 So OK, I\u2019ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.\u201d On the polling: \u201cInstead [of shy Trump voters], the likely problem is what pollsters call nonresponse bias\u2026.. Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past. There\u2019s no guarantee any of this will work. If Mr. Trump does beat his polling, there will have been at least one clear sign of it: Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification \u2014 about as many people now identify as Republicans.\u201d But: \u201cHere\u2019s another counterintuitive finding: It\u2019s surprisingly likely that the election won\u2019t be a photo finish\u2026. With polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one the industry experienced in 2016 or 2020 could produce a comfortable Electoral College victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. According to my model, there\u2019s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states\u2026. Don\u2019t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards \u2014 or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people\u2019s guts might tell them.\u201d \u2022 I guess we\u2019ll see!<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe electorate is changing. Here\u2019s what that means for Trump and Harris\u201d [Ron Brownstein, <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/10\/22\/politics\/changing-electorate-trump-harris-analysis\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CNN<\/a>]. \u201cThe groups that Harris needs to give her winning margins are the non-White and college-educated White voters (especially women in each case). The fact that both of those groups are increasing in the electorate, while Trump\u2019s best cohort is shrinking, may give Harris a small swell in her sails. \u201cThe growing parts of the population are leaning Democrat, even in this time\u201d when so many voters are discontented with conditions in the country, Frey said. The fact that women are likely to cast more ballots than men in all the swing states, he believes, will provide a small lift to Harris as well.\u201d \u2022 Abortion + the war machine seems to be Harris\u2019s view of a winning formula for college-educated White women\u2026 Commentary:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump’s base of non-college White voters.<\/p>\n<p>This is key because they make up a ton of the electorate, especially in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she’s holding her own in MI, PA & WI. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ww9pnp3DxY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/ww9pnp3DxY<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ForecasterEnten\/status\/1848359901354996117\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 21, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cDonald Trump Losing \u2018Core Group\u2019 Vital in 3 Battleground States\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polls-non-college-educated-white-1972947\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Newsweek<\/a>]. \u201cPolitical analyst Harry Enten\u2019s analysis shows Trump is leading nationally among noncollege educated white voters by 27 points, down from 31 points in 2020 and 33 points in 2016. \u2018That might not seem like a lot, but given that we\u2019re seeing these double digit gains among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we\u2019re seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that\u2019s a rather interesting development,\u2019 Enten said\u2026 Enten said that the shift mattered because noncollege educated white voters make up 40 percent of the electorate nationally, but 51 percent of the electorate in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin\u2026. \u2018,\u2019 Enten explained. Enten\u2019s analysis also revealed that Trump\u2019s vote share among noncollege educated white voters is declining in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with his lead currently standing at 19 points, compared to 22 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016. \u2018,\u2019 Enten said. \u2018And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts among smaller groups in the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris is still in the ball game right now.’\u201d \u2022 Hmm.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c2024 Election Could Hinge on Tiny Shifts in the Electorate\u201d [Ed Kilgore, <a href=\"https:\/\/nymag.com\/intelligencer\/article\/2024-election-demographic-change.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Magazine<\/a>]. \u201d This apparently very close presidential election reflects a deeply divided electorate where the potential changes in either direction we all talk about constantly are glacial and arguably self-canceling..,. Very big differences in the direction of the country will flow from tiny shifts in one direction or another of a closely divided electorate. It\u2019s why anxiety levels are so high right now among those paying avid attention to politics, even though the outcome may depend on \u201clow-propensity voters\u201d barely paying attention at all.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cCitizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/citizen-forecasting-of-the-2024-presidential-election-last-soundings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Larry Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/a>]. \u201cAsking people who they believe will win the election, as opposed to who they are going to vote for, can be an effective tool for trying to figure out who is favored in an election. A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win during the summer, but more recently these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris.\u201d A Keynsian beauty contest! More: \u201cA growing body of evidence indicates that \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/british-journal-of-political-science\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasting-can-voters-see-into-the-future\/997F71FA348ED48B613CDAC3138CE7EA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">citizen forecasting<\/a>\u2018 (CF), as the latter method has been called, makes for more accurate predictions of the winner. Indeed, studies of CF in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/political-science-research-and-methods\/article\/what-to-expect-when-youre-electing-citizen-forecasts-in-the-2020-election\/E9FC32C12DFD4E53B3CE551D681F8AB3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">United States<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0261379410001010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">United Kingdom<\/a>, as well as work on other democracies (such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0169207018301274\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Canada<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/ps-political-science-and-politics\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasting-the-2022-french-presidential-election\/0FBB7FDC3FAF7F41A2E99C595D7753AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">France<\/a>, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/ps-political-science-and-politics\/article\/abs\/citizen-forecasts-of-the-2021-german-election\/EDDAD6C5A36D9518A5D8D970B29A0660\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Germany<\/a>) have demonstrated that voter expectations outperform voter intentions in terms of predictive accuracy, yielding a higher level of statistical and substantive significance. Inspired by this impressive track record, we have been systematically recording citizen forecasts with regard to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, via nationally representative samples of American voters, as drawn by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verasight.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Verasight<\/a> survey team.\u201d And: \u201cThis current citizen forecast points to a Harris victory in November.\u201d But: \u201cVerasight polls conducted June 20-26, July 20-22, Aug. 20-26, . N = 750 for all four polls.\u201d \u2022 The last polling was still during Harris\u2019s honeymoon period, three weeks ago. And that\u2019s a long time in politics.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWill long COVID sway the 2024 election? These Rutgers researchers think it could\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northjersey.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2024\/10\/21\/voters-with-long-covid-disability-a-rising-force-rutgers-study-says\/75720912007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">USA Today<\/a>]. \u201cAn aging U.S. population and the rise of long COVID mean voters with disabilities may have more of an impact on the upcoming election than ever before, a new Rutgers University <a href=\"https:\/\/smlr.rutgers.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Documents\/Centers\/Program_Disability_Research\/Disability_Electorate_Projections_Report_Oct2024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">report<\/a> finds\u2026. Between aging, long COVID and other factors, one in six eligible voters in the U.S. now has a disability of some type, the Rutgers researchers found. That\u2019s double the growth rate of voters without disabilities, their report said\u2026. Historically, these voters have splintered into smaller groups, each lobbying for its specific needs to deal with developmental disabilities, mobility challenges or other issues. But the various communities came together during the pandemic around imperatives like access to health care and employment, Schur said\u2026. \u2018Overall, there is no real partisan advantage. When there was a blue wave in 2018, people with disabilities were part of the blue wave. There wasn\u2019t really a big difference, and I don\u2019t expect a really big difference this year,\u2019 [Douglas] Kruse said. \u2018But it is true, as Lisa [Schur] says, that health care is more important to people with disabilities. And I think that tends to favor the Democrats.’\u201d That might depend on what their experience with the health care system actually is. And: \u201cOne more fact about potential voters with disabilities heading to the polls across the country this year: There will be more women (21.6 million) than men (18.6 million). That breaks down into 411,300 men and 533,900 women in New Jersey. The group of adults affected swells to 72.7 million \u2014 one in three eligible voters \u2014 after adding those who live with someone with a disability. Thought about that way, the electorate with disabilities now surpasses the Hispanic\/Latino and Black voting demographics in the U.S., Kruse and Schur noted.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cThe Clock Is Ticking on Kamala Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/magazine\/2024\/10\/22\/kamala-harris-reassure-voters-liberal-00184879\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Politico<\/a>]. \u201cThe evening\u2019s moderator, Wisconsin conservative talk show host turned anti-Trump writer Charlie Sykes, opened with the political equivalent of a fastball down the middle of the plate. Perched beneath a \u2018Country Over Party sign,\u2019 Sykes asked Harris for her pitch to the voter who supported Republicans from yesteryear but are uneasy now about casting a ballot for a Democrat. The vice president began by citing \u2018the lived experience\u2019 of most Americans \u2014 sounding more like a graduate student from down the road in Madison than most Americans \u2014 of having much in common. She repeated a line from her stump speech about how Americans \u2018love our country\u2019 before praising democracy, the rule of law and the Constitution. Then, making a little progress, she invoked her service on the Senate Intelligence Committee, where lawmakers from both parties put aside partisanship to focus on protecting the \u2018security and well-being\u2019 of all Americans. That, Harris concluded, \u2018is at stake.\u2019 That was it. Harris said nothing specific about how she\u2019d govern, mentioned no looming issue on which she\u2019d work with Republicans and offered no reassurances about leading the country from the political center. And, of course, there was no critique of her own party or even an expression of sympathy or understanding about why voting for a liberal could be difficult for a longtime conservative. There wasn\u2019t even a reference to her previous commitments to include a Republican in the Cabinet or create a bipartisan council of advisers. And this was in response to the opening question from a pre-selected moderator who is supporting her campaign!\u201d \u2022 Everything about this is bad: the candidate, the staffwork, and the net effect on those invested in her, like Sykes, who might well feel they\u2019d been played.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"kamala\"\/>Kamala (D): What Kamala said:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Hallie Jackson asked Harris yesterday: “Can you say that you were honest with the American people about what you saw in those moments with President Biden, as you were with him again and again repeatedly in that time?” <\/p>\n<p>Harris: “Of course. Joe Biden is an extremely accomplished,\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HMykeLm5MD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/HMykeLm5MD<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1849101499260944573\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>What others saw:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">At a Chevy Chase fundraiser in June 2023, Bill Reichblum tells Woodward of Biden: \u201cHe never completed a sentence\u2026.He told the same story three times in exactly the same way and it meandered so much\u2026Frankly, my impression was there were times\u2026it was as though we didn\u2019t exist.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Vav7clSMGQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/Vav7clSMGQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1849093668746969149\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>I suppose a Democrat loyalist would say \u201cShe has to say that,\u201d but it sticks in my craw. And Biden is also, we may forget, still President. Why is that OK?<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cDetroit Muslim leader ejected from Kamala Harris rally, deepening rift between Democrats and Arab Americans\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metrotimes.com\/news\/detroit-muslim-leader-ejected-from-kamala-harris-rally-deepening-rift-between-democrats-and-arab-americans-37670193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Detroit Metro Times<\/a>]. \u201cAhmed Ghanim, a Democrat, says he accepted an invitation to the event and was seated in the Royal Oak Music Theatre when a campaign organizer ordered him to leave. \u2018She took me to the door, and she closed it, and I found two police officers waiting there, and she said, \u2018You have to leave right now,\u201d Ghanim tells Metro Times. \u2018I asked why she was kicking me out. She wouldn\u2019t answer. I was very calmly asking why I was being kicked out.\u2019 He continues, \u2018I was just wearing a suit and a white shirt. I said, \u2018OK,\u2019 and I left. The police officer said, \u2018You either leave now or I\u2019ll put you in the back of my car.’\u201d Nice. The Harris campaign statementL \u201cThe campaign was swiftly informed by Emgage Action [Ghanim\u2019s organizaiton] of yesterday\u2019s incident and looked into it,\u2019 the statement reads, referring to a Muslim American advocacy group. \u2018Our campaign regrets this action and its impact on Dr. Ghanim and the community, and he is welcome at future events. We value our relationship with the Muslim American community and are committed to ensuring all community and political spaces are welcoming and respectful to every American.’\u201d \u2022 Terrible staffwork, both in Ghanim\u2019s ejection and the statement (in which the word \u201capologize\u201d does not appear). Despite the statements blah blah blah, it looks to me like the Harris campaign <em>already<\/em> had the cops wired up, and had a list (with photos) of attendees to bar.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cWhat Kamala Harris Needs to Do to Win Over More Black Men\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/what-kamala-harris-needs-to-do-to-win-over-more-black-men\/ar-AA1sM4kb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Magazine<\/a>]. \u201cDemocrats have known since Hillary Clinton\u2019s loss in 2016 that carrying the all-important industrial midwestern states requires maximum turnout in the Black communities of Detroit, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. The problem is that Dems have assumed they could generate Obama-era levels of excitement for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden \u2014 and now Kamala Harris \u2014 without a substantial, sustained political investment up front.\u201d And: \u201c\u2018You\u2019re going to pick on Black men and blame us for everything. What did you deliver to Black men in the past four years?\u2019 the activist and commentator Van Jones said at a recent university discussion in California. \u2018We wanted the George Floyd police-reform act. Didn\u2019t get it. We wanted the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Didn\u2019t get it. And we wanted the EQUAL Act, the next step in criminal justice reform, and didn\u2019t get that. Three things we wanted, and we got zero, zilch, nunca, nada, nothing.\u2019 By contrast, Jones noted, Trump signed the First Step Act, which granted early release from federal prison to more than 30,000 people \u2014 a monumental rollback of mass incarceration that Democrats rarely discuss.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Hmm.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NEWS <\/p>\n<p>Vice President Kamala Harris is planning to deliver her closing argument Tuesday in a speech on the National Mall. <\/p>\n<p>Sources tell the Washington Post that Harris\u2019 speech will talk about January 6 but will focus more broadly on her thoughts on Trump\u2019s threat to democracy.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FVM52Jl01q\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/FVM52Jl01q<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Yashar Ali \ud83d\udc18 (@yashar) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yashar\/status\/1849139992960061644?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Chutzpah. Even Obama 2012 didn\u2019t do that. I grant that the setting tops Carlson and Rogan.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): Biden on the trail:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Biden in NH lists what Trump would do as president and says: \u201cwe gotta lock him up\u201d and then, appearing to realize how his comments would be taken, adds: \u201cpolitically, lock him up.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cw3X8RzKn2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/cw3X8RzKn2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexThomp\/status\/1848846678138183726\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Thanks, Joe. We knew what you meant.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"trump\"\/>Trump (R): Media blitz (1):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Here we go! \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">@realDonaldTrump<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bgja6JPqsQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/bgja6JPqsQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Joe Rogan Podcast (@joeroganhq) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joeroganhq\/status\/1848824394250129550\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>JRE = Joe Rogan Experience.<\/p>\n<p>Trump (R): Media blitz (2):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Our live tour is not over yet. For the grand finale, we\u2019ll be in Glendale, AZ, on October 31st with special guest President Donald J. Trump. All profits will be donated to hurricane relief efforts. We hope to see you there.<\/p>\n<p>Get tickets to our biggest show yet at\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/00756VvITT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/00756VvITT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TuckerCarlson\/status\/1849127742727508416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 23, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Trump (R) (Willis\/McAfee): \u201cSpecial prosecutor in Georgia\u2019s case against Trump met with Biden officials\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2024\/oct\/21\/nathan-wade-special-prosecutor-in-georgias-case-ag\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Washington Times<\/a>]. \u201cNathan Wade, who led the Fulton County election interference case against Donald Trump while having an affair with District Attorney Fani Willis, admitted to congressional investigators he met with White House officials several times but claimed he couldn\u2019t remember the details\u2026. Ms. Willis hired Mr. Wade even though he was a divorce lawyer with little experience prosecuting criminal cases. In 2022, he was paid nearly $700,000 to oversee the case against the former president, according to a co-defendant seeking to have the charges dismissed\u2026.. Mr. Wade acknowledged the Biden administration\u2019s involvement in the case during the interview that was conducted on Oct. 15 by committee investigators. He verified the existence of invoices he submitted in which he billed for a \u2018Conf. with White House counsel\u2019 in Athens, Georgia, on May 23, 2022. When asked about each of the invoices obtained by investigators, Mr. Wade responded 58 times that he couldn\u2019t remember details.\u201d \u2022 What reason could the White House possibly have for getting involved in a state prosectution? Seems odd.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cElon Musk \u2018Jokes\u2019 in a Church About Someone Killing Kamala Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rollingstone.com\/politics\/politics-news\/elon-musk-harris-trump-assassination-joke-church-1235139632\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Rolling Stone<\/a>]. \u201cElon Musk keeps trying to stick his \u2018joke\u2019 about somebody assassinating Vice President Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, Musk remarked, again, that \u2018no one\u2019s even bothering to try to kill Kamala\u2019 \u2026 Acting as a Donald Trump surrogate \u2014 in addition to the $75 million moneyman behind a leading Trump Super PAC \u2014 Musk spoke Saturday night at the Life Center megachurch in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which is notable for launching the career of Christian supremacist God-rocker Sean Feucht.\u201d \u2022 I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if Musk\u2019s involvement, at all levels, didn\u2019t turn out to be a net negative. He\u2019s a loose cannon, and the Trump campaign doesn\u2019t need two. (I\u2019d like a lot less Musk, and a lot more Kennedy. I wouldn\u2019t call Kennedy a loose cannon, so much as his own cannon. Apparently, a Townall with Trump, Kennedy, and Tulsi was cancelled; unfortunate, in my view).<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>AZ: Impressive:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Arizona Dem running against Kari Lake foe the US Senate, RUBEN GALLEGO, had promised to visit all 22 of the state’s federally recognized tribes. But there was no road leading into the Havasupai village of 639 people. So he trekked in on foot. It took him 4 hours to walk there.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Lise Horton Is Writing (@lisekimhorton) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/lisekimhorton\/status\/1847607680568840228\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 19, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Perhaps a stunt, but still impressive.<\/p>\n<p>GA: \u201cIn battleground Georgia, poor people see no reason to vote. That decision could sway election\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/battleground-georgia-poor-people-see-041119022.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Associated Press<\/a> (KLG)]. \u201cLocated about 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Atlanta, Bibb County is the kind of place where Vice President Kamala Harris would need to run up her margin in order to defeat Donald Trump in this year\u2019s election, a strategy that helped Biden win the state four years ago as he promised to lift up Black Americans. It won\u2019t be easy: Bibb County never recovered all the jobs lost during the pandemic, and Labor Department data show it had more jobs in 2019 under Trump than it does now. Trump, the former president, sees himself as having an opportunity with Black voters, particularly men. But he and Harris have one thing in common: Each will have a difficult time persuading people to turn out who typically sit out elections. More than 47,000 people in Bibb County were eligible to vote in 2020 and didn\u2019t, a figure roughly four times Biden\u2019s margin of victory across the entire state.\u201d But: \u201cBut the more nonurban parts of Georgia are only part of the electoral puzzle. <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/michelle-obama-georgia-younger-voters-harris-curry-85c45be7377a84d04362050664ac44c8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">It\u2019s a dramatically different story in Atlanta<\/a> and its vote-rich suburbs where enthusiasm runs high for both Harris and Trump, although often divided by race.\u201d However: \u201cNonvoters have basic, urgent needs the campaigns don\u2019t address.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>NV: \u201cThe early voting blog, 2024\u201d [John Ralston (ick), <a href=\"https:\/\/thenevadaindependent.com\/article\/the-early-voting-blog-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Nevada Independent<\/a>]. \u201cRurals matter. Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds\u2026.. Dems are only winning the urban Nevada ballot race by 1 percent \u2013 38-37. Repubs have a nearly 3 percent turnout advantage statewide.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Interesting, but early days yet.<\/p>\n<p>NV: \u201cAs Harris Courts Sun Belt, Housing Costs Stand in Her Way\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/21\/us\/politics\/2024-campaign-las-vegas-nevada-housing.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn a state that relies on hourly wage workers in tourism and service jobs, many cannot find an affordable place to live\u2026 Many working-class voters say a promise has been broken, and they are looking for someone to blame\u2026 Many once-reliable Democrats say the issue has eroded their trust in politicians. In the state\u2019s Democratic hub, that means turning away from Vice President Kamala Harris. \u2018When we got the new president, I didn\u2019t hear nothing, I didn\u2019t see any changes,\u2019 Maria Ocampo, 54, who has voted Democratic for decades, said of the Biden administration. This year, she does not plan to vote at all.\u201d \u2022 Innocent bystander: \u201cWasn\u2019t Lina Khan working on price-gouging landlords?\u201d Harris Campaign: \u201cWho?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Realignment and Legitimacy<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cEarly-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/4LoTv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">WaPo<\/a>] \u201cDemocrats have embraced early voting for years, in part because it leaves less to chance on Election Day, when busy schedules, bad weather or illness can keep voters from making it to the polls. Known as \u201cbanking\u201d votes, early voting also allows campaigns to be more efficient with resources as Election Day draws near by focusing attention on a smaller and smaller group of voters who have not yet cast ballots.\u201d \u2022 Another way of saying this is that early voting skews toward partisans who don\u2019t actually need to study what the candidates are saying. Why we are allowing that population, and the convenience of party operatives, to drive how our elections are run is an open question.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Syndemics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk&null=Risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>); Wastewater (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>, <del><a href=\"https:\/\/biobot.io\/data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Biobot<\/a><\/del>; includes many counties; <a href=\"https:\/\/data.wastewaterscan.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Wastewater Scan<\/a>, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.walgreens.com\/businesssolutions\/covid-19-index.jsp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Walgreens<\/a>); \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/iowacovid19tracker.org\/hospitals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Iowa COVID-19 Tracker<\/a>\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/icemsg.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts<\/a>\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n<p>Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n<p>Resources, United States (Local): AK (<a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/af2efc8bffbf4cdc83c2d1a134354074\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AL (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AR (<a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/633006d0782b4544bd5113a314f6268a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); AZ (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.azdhs.gov\/covid19\/data\/index.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); CA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdph.ca.gov\/Programs\/CID\/DCDC\/Pages\/COVID-19\/CalSuWers-Dashboard.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.marinhhs.org\/surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Marin, dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/healthalerts.stanford.edu\/covid-19\/wastewater-dashboard\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Stanford, wastewater<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/publichealth.verily.com\/?v=SC2_N&l=Oakland%2C+CA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Oakland, wastewater<\/a>); CO (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.colorado.gov\/data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/cdphe.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/d79cf93c3938470ca4bcc4823328946b#utility=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); CT (<a href=\"https:\/\/data.ct.gov\/stories\/s\/COVID-19-data\/wa3g-tfvc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); DE (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.delaware.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); FL (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/5b9d75ba683849928dc1a49c39ab0b1c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); GA (<a href=\"https:\/\/dph.georgia.gov\/ga-nwss-wastewater-surveillance-reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); HI (<a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronavirusdisease2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); IA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dmmwra.org\/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=57\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater reports<\/a>); ID (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.idahopublichealth.com\/district-2\/novel-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, Boise; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.idahopublichealth.com\/district-2\/novel-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.wastewaterscan.org\/?plantId=1056f05c-0e46-4e3d-b007-c0453ba7dc0d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Central Idaho; <a href=\"https:\/\/publichealth.verily.com\/#:SARS-CoV-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.srhd.org\/topics\/spokane-county-case-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Spokane County<\/a>); IL (<a href=\"https:\/\/iwss.uillinois.edu\/wastewater-treatment-plants\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); IN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coronavirus.in.gov\/indiana-covid-19-dashboard-and-map\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); KS (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov\/160\/COVID-19-in-Kansas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/experience.arcgis.com\/experience\/4456bae8a38f4b6180e008477382fff9\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Lawrence); KY (<a href=\"https:\/\/louisville.edu\/envirome\/thecoimmunityproject\/dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>, Louisville); LA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ldh.la.gov\/coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mass.gov\/info-details\/covid-19-wastewater-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MD (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.maryland.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); ME (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.maine.gov\/dhhs\/mecdc\/infectious-disease\/epi\/airborne\/coronavirus\/data.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MI (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.michigan.gov\/coronavirus\/stats\/wastewater-surveillance\/dashboard\/sentinel-wastewater-epidemiology-evaluation-project-sweep\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/gisportal.state.mi.us\/portal\/apps\/insights\/index.html#\/view\/52bbb104ed574887918f990af9f3debe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.health.state.mn.us\/diseases\/coronavirus\/stats\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); MO (<a href=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/f7f5492486114da6b5d6fdc07f81aacf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); MS (<a href=\"https:\/\/msdh.ms.gov\/page\/14,0,420.html#Mississippi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); <del>MT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/MapSeries\/index.html?appid=7c34f3412536439491adcc2103421d4b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>)<\/del>; NC (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.ncdhhs.gov\/dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard)<\/a>; ND (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hhs.nd.gov\/health\/coronavirus\/cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hhs.nd.gov\/health\/coronavirus\/cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); NE (<a href=\"https:\/\/atlas-dhhs.ne.gov\/Atlas\/Respiratory_Illness\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NH (<a href=\"https:\/\/wisdom.dhhs.nh.gov\/wisdom\/dashboard.html?topic=covid-19&subtopic=recurring-updates&indicator=covid-19-wastewater#tabnavbarid\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); NJ (<a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.nj.gov\/forms\/datadashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NM (<a href=\"https:\/\/cvprovider.nmhealth.org\/public-dashboard.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); NV (<a href=\"https:\/\/nvhealthresponse.nv.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/empower.unlv.edu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>, Southern NV); NY (<a href=\"https:\/\/mbcolli.shinyapps.io\/SARS2EWSP\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); OH (<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.ohio.gov\/dashboards\/other-resources\/wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); OK (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/51657c21386d4f1a962b1853c76ec589\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); <del>OR (<a href=\"https:\/\/public.tableau.com\/app\/profile\/oregon.health.authority.covid.19\/viz\/OregonsCOVID-19DataDashboards-TableofContents\/TableofContentsStatewide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>)<\/del>; PA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.health.pa.gov\/topics\/disease\/coronavirus\/pages\/Cases.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); RI (<a href=\"https:\/\/ri-department-of-health-covid-19-data-rihealth.hub.arcgis.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); SC (<a href=\"https:\/\/scdhec.gov\/index.php\/covid19\/covid-19-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); SD (<a href=\"https:\/\/doh.sd.gov\/COVID\/Dashboard.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); TN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tn.gov\/health\/cedep\/ncov\/data.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); TX (<a href=\"https:\/\/txdshsea.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/dashboards\/4ae43eefd0f641d59d35c3df82ee59cc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); UT (<a href=\"https:\/\/avrpublic.dhhs.utah.gov\/uwss\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); VA (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vdh.virginia.gov\/coronavirus\/sars-cov-2-in-wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); VT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.healthvermont.gov\/disease-control\/covid-19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); WA (<a href=\"https:\/\/doh.wa.gov\/emergencies\/covid-19\/data-dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.bfhd.wa.gov\/cases-and-roadmap-to-recovery\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">dashboard<\/a>); WI (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhs.wisconsin.gov\/covid-19\/wastewater.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); WV (<del><a href=\"https:\/\/oehs.wvdhhr.org\/news\/oehs-coivd-19-information\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a><\/del>); WY (<del><a href=\"https:\/\/covidwastewatermonitor.wyo.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a><\/del>).<\/p>\n<p>Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (<a href=\"https:\/\/health-infobase.canada.ca\/covid-19\/wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Government of Canada<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.publichealthontario.ca\/en\/Data-and-Analysis\/Infectious-Disease\/COVID-19-Data-Surveillance\/Wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); QC (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.inspq.qc.ca\/covid-19\/donnees\/eaux-usees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><em>les eaux us\u00e9es<\/em><\/a>); BC (<a href=\"https:\/\/bccdc.shinyapps.io\/respiratory_wastewater\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>); BC, Vancouver (<a href=\"https:\/\/metrovancouver.org\/services\/liquid-waste\/testing-for-the-covid-19-virus-in-wastewater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">wastewater<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n<p>Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n<p>Airborne Transmission: Covid<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cTransmission of SARS-CoV-2 on aircraft: A scoping review\u201d (preprint) [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.22.24315911v1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">medRxiv<\/a>]. From the Abstract: \u201cThis review summarises reported contact-tracing data and evaluates the secondary attack rates (SAR) and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission in aircraft, to provide insight for future decision making in the context of future respiratory pandemics\u2026. Our results are consistent with sporadic clusters happening onboard aircraft. Close proximity to COVID-19 cases within the aircraft was associated with a higher [secondary attack rates (SAR)].\u201d \u2022 Sitting closer to the aisle and moving about the cabin is also associated with greater risk. In addition, transmission will also depend on the ventilation patterns in any given aircraft.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Infection: Covid<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIncident COVID-19 infections before Omicron in the US\u201d (preprint) [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.18.24315777v1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">medRxiv<\/a>]. From the Abstract: \u201c[W]e retrospectively estimate daily incident infections for each U.S. state prior to Omicron. To this end, reported COVID-19 cases are deconvolved to their date of infection onset using delay distributions estimated from the CDC line list. Then, a novel serology-driven model is used to scale these deconvolved cases to account for the unreported infections. The resulting infections incorporate variant-specific incubation periods, reinfections, and waning antigenic immunity. They clearly demonstrate that the reported cases fail to reflect the full extent of disease burden in all states. Most notably, , with an estimated reporting rate as low as 6.3% in New Jersey, 7.3% in Maryland, and 8.4% in Nevada. Moreover, . Therefore, while reported cases offer a convenient proxy of disease burden, they fail to capture the full extent of infections, and can severely underestimate the true disease burden.\u201d Here is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2024.10.18.24315777v1.full.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">a summary of the method<\/a>: \u201cFirst, we estimate the delays from positive specimen to report date and use them to push back the reported cases to their sample collection dates. Next, we estimate the delay from symptom onset to sample collection, combine this with variant-specific infection-to-symptom delays, and use these to push back the cases to infection onset. The resulting case estimates are aggregated across variant categories and adjusted by the case ascertainment ratio, estimated with seroprevalence survey data and a model for antigenic immunity.\u201d This is above my paygrade. Perhaps an epidemiologist in the readership can comment.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Elite Maleficence<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Still killing people:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uP4sCT0VCy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/uP4sCT0VCy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Nate Bear (@NateB_Panic) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateB_Panic\/status\/1848803543643525357\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"table\"\/><strong>TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Wastewater<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> This week[1] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 14<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Last Week[2] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> (until next week):<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280716\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" style=\"align: left; margin-left: 0px !important; padding: 9px 0 9px 0;\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong> Variants<\/strong> [3] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery#variant-proportions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> <strong>Emergency Room Visits<\/strong>[4] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_select_7dayeddiagnosed_00\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl-300x235.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280570\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cd-ed-natl-300x176.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Hospitalization<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: gold;\">\u2605<\/span> New York[5] <a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.health.ny.gov\/daily-hospitalization-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York State<\/a>, data October 22:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> National [6] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/covidnetdashboard\/de\/powerbi\/dashboard.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 28:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280887\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-9-300x189.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280573\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-2-258x300.png 258w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Positivity<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> National[7] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.walgreens.com\/healthcare-solutions\/covid-19-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Walgreens<\/a> October 21:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Ohio[8] <a href=\"https:\/\/clevelandcliniclabs.com\/respiratory-virus-surveillance-statistics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Cleveland Clinic<\/a> October 19:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-2-300x168.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280799\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-2-300x195.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Travelers Data<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> Positivity[9] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#traveler-genomic-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 30:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Variants[10] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#traveler-genomic-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 30:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280574\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-2-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280575\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-2-300x211.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Deaths<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] <a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronavirusdisease2019\/what-you-should-know\/current-situation-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] <a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronadisease2019\/what-you-should-know\/current-situation-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280572\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl-300x178.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-1-300x177.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<td>\n<p><strong>LEGEND<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1) <span style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: gold;\">\u2605<\/span> for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n<p>2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOTES<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[1] (CDC) Good news!<\/p>\n<p>[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n<p>[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.<\/p>\n<p>[4] (ED) Down.<\/p>\n<p>[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.<\/p>\n<p>[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the \u201ceverything in greenish pastels\u201d crowd has gotten to this chart.<\/p>\n<p>[7] (Walgreens) A pause.<\/p>\n<p>[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.<\/p>\n<p>[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.<\/p>\n<p>[10] (Travelers: Variants). No XEC.<\/p>\n<p>[11] Deaths low, positivity down.<\/p>\n<p>[12] Deaths low, ED down.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stats Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There are no official statistics of interest today.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"boeing\"\/>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing\u2019s bad year just keeps getting worse: One of its satellites has exploded in orbit, with debris becoming a potential threat to other satellites\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/10\/23\/boeing-satellite-explodes-in-orbit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Fortune<\/a>]. \u201cA Boeing-made communications satellite has exploded, with debris floating that could potentially be a threat to other satellites at some point. Intelsat, the owner of the satellite, is reporting \u201cthe total loss\u201d of the device in an update on its Website. The company is working with Boeing and government agencies to determine the cause of the mishap\u2026. The U.S. Space Force says it is tracking 20 pieces of debris from the destroyed satellite and there was no immediate threat to other orbiting space equipment. Other observers, though, have seen higher amounts of debris. ExoAnalytic Solutions told SpaceNews it was tracking 57 pieces of debris and was warning operators of spacecraft that could be at risk of collision. And Russia\u2019s space agency said it was tracking more than 80 fragments.\u201d \u2022 Oopsie.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing reports $6 billion quarterly loss as striking workers vote whether to accept contract offer\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lakelandtoday.ca\/national-business\/boeing-reports-6-billion-quarterly-loss-as-striking-workers-vote-whether-to-accept-contract-offer-9697212\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Associated Press<\/a>]. \u201d Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of more than $6 billion before turning its attention to whether striking factory workers would accept a contract offer Wednesday and end a walkout that has crippled the company\u2019s airplane production for nearly six weeks\u2026. Boeing hasn\u2019t had a profitable year since 2018, and Wednesday\u2019s numbers represented the second-worst quarter in the manufacturer\u2019s history.The company burned nearly $2 billion in cash, in the quarter, weakening its balance sheet, which is loaded down with $58 billion in debt. Chief Financial Officer Brian West said the company will burn cash through 2025, but at a slower pace.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing\u2019s New C.E.O. Calls for \u2018Culture Change\u2019 as Strike Vote Looms\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/business\/boeing-earnings-strike-vote.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York Times<\/a>]. \u201cIn a message to employees, Mr. Ortberg shared a speech that he planned to deliver to investor analysts on a call later in the day to discuss Boeing\u2019s quarterly financial results. In it, he offered a diagnosis: The company had lost too much trust, gained too much debt and made too many mistakes. To put Boeing back on the right path would require \u2018fundamental culture change,\u2019 stabilizing the business and improving execution. \u2018Our leaders, from me on down, need to be closely integrated with our business and the people who are doing the design and production of our products,\u2019 he said. \u2018We need to be on the factory floors, in the back shops and in our engineering labs. We need to know what\u2019s going on, not only with our products, but with our people.’\u201d \u2022 Fine. Restore defined-benefit pensions (and put a union member on the Board, as I keep screaming). <a href=\"https:\/\/boeing.mediaroom.com\/news-releases-statements?item=131499\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Here are Ortberg\u2019s complete remarks<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cIntelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/spacenews.com\/intelsat-33e-loses-power-in-geostationary-orbit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Space News<\/a>]. \u201cAn Intelsat spokesperson said the satellite was not insured at the time of the issue.\u201d \u2022 Surely not wise, with a Boeing product?<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 71 Greed (previous close: 73 Extreme Greed) [<a href=\"https:\/\/money.cnn.com\/data\/fear-and-greed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CNN<\/a>]. One week ago: 66 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 22 at 2:37:54 PM ET.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gallery<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One of my favorite flowers:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Monet, Irises <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ElVphj6eDM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/ElVphj6eDM<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Impressions (@impression_ists) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/impression_ists\/status\/1848069935504708031\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 20, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"class\"\/><strong>Class Warfare<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Tech Coup: A New Book Shows How the Unchecked Power of Companies Is Destabilizing Governance\u201d (interview) [<a href=\"https:\/\/hai.stanford.edu\/news\/tech-coup-new-book-shows-how-unchecked-power-companies-destabilizing-governance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Stanford University<\/a>]. Interview with Stanford institute for Human-Centered AI Policy Fellow Marietje Schaake. \u201c<em>In what ways are private companies increasingly taking on functions normally assumed by states?<\/em> In the digital realm, companies\u2019 control of information, unfettered agency, and power to act have almost overtaken that of governments. For example, in the private intelligence sector, companies like NSO Group Technologies with its Pegasus spyware products are creating and selling the capability to hack into people\u2019s devices. This means that anyone with the financial resources to purchase Pegasus spyware can access the capabilities of intelligence services and hack into the very private information of political opponents, judges, journalists, critical employees, competitors, and others. Another striking example is that of offensive cyber capabilities. In the name of defending their clients or their networks, companies are attacking hackers across borders, using \u2018offense as defense.\u2019 And notice that I\u2019m talking not only about big tech companies but also small ones, because there\u2019s de facto power that comes from the development of digital technologies.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><a name=\"wired\"\/><strong>News of the Wired<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cHow Your Brain Detects Patterns without Conscious Thought\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/how-your-brain-detects-patterns-without-conscious-thought\/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Scientific American<\/a>]. \u201cIn an experimental trial, participants viewed a series of the face images\u2026. During the experiment, neurons in each participant\u2019s hippocampus and entorhinal cortex gradually began to respond not only to the face being presented but also to faces directly connected to it on the triangle. When asked whether they noticed any pattern in the order of the images, the participants said they didn\u2019t. But their brain cells still learnt the pattern, showing that the brain can recognize patterns without conscious awareness. In the breaks between trials, the participants\u2019 \u2018face\u2019 neurons replayed what they had learnt, cycling through the patterns on their own without being stimulated to do so. \u2018This is something that is not explicit, it is implicit. And the brain gets it, essentially, very quickly, and we can see those changes in the individual cells,\u2019 says Fried.\u201d \u2022 Patterns generally, or optimized for faces?<\/p>\n<p>For our numismatists:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Distribution of Roman Coins Found. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XC9X2E5jDR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/XC9X2E5jDR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Illegitimate Scholar\ud83e\udded (@ill_Scholar) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ill_Scholar\/status\/1843312874254750199\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 7, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Contact information for plants<\/strong>: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-22-2024.html\">here<\/a>. From SC:<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"800\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280889\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tithonia-225x300.jpeg 225w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>SC writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\nFor more than a decade, I\u2019ve been intrigued by the genus Tithonia, aka \u201cMexican Sunflower.\u201d I first encountered it back in the \u201900s or early \u201910s when I read that it was used as green manure in parts of Africa, planted along the edges of fields and harvested for use as Nitrogen rich soil amendment. At first, I thought that it was fixing atmospheric Nitrogen but I later learned that it merely accumulates already-present soil Nitrogen into its tissues. It\u2019s a cheery, attractive plant, sort of a giant puff-ball of orange daisy-like blossoms. The blossoms are well-suited to the feeding anatomy of butterflies and hummingbirds. Starting in the mid-to-late \u201910s, I have been annually providing a bunch of these to a local social services agency that plants them outside its meeting rooms. The plants attract hummingbirds, which provide a morale boost to staff and clients. At, I think, clientele initiative, the agency subsequently started a horticulture sub-agenda in one of its programs, an on-site day partial care program for mentally-ill homeless people, and that has branched out into veggie, decorative and herb gardening at the agency site. <\/p>\n<p> A few years ago, a sibling planted two of these (of species T. Rotundifolia, that reputedly grows to 6\u2032 height) and aggressively watered them. They grew to the eaves of her house, 8\u2032 at least, and were so leafy and dense that you couldn\u2019t see through them. The plants had hundreds of blossoms and lots of hiding places, a kind of hummingbird heaven. Such a large plant from a small seed.<\/p>\n<p>This photo is of an example of T. speciosa (in my experience, less tall and bushy than rotundifolia), that reputedly reaches 4-5\u2032 height. A friend who regularly accepts plants from my \u201cbackyard nursery\u201d passed it further on. It was started from seed in mid-Winter 2024. The recipient evidently aggressively watered and fertilized it; the plant towers at 9\u2032. I wonder what the neighbors make of it.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Wow. I could really file this under \u201cLook for the helpers,\u201d too!<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"donate\"\/><strong>Readers<\/strong>: Water Cooler is a standalone entity <em>not<\/em> covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert\u2019s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! <em>Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage<\/em>. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n<p>Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-226891\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"606\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png 606w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution-300x190.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!<\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-alignleft\"><a href=\"#\" rel=\"nofollow\" onclick=\"window.print(); return false;\" title=\"Printer Friendly, PDF & Email\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;-webkit-box-shadow:none; -moz-box-shadow: none; box-shadow:none; padding:0; margin:0\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\" alt=\"Print Friendly, PDF & Email\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\nThis entry was posted in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/category\/water-cooler\" rel=\"category tag\">Water Cooler<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-23-2024.html\" title=\"2:00 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date updated\" datetime=\"2024-10-23T14:00:46-04:00\">October 23, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/author\/lambert-strether\" title=\"View all posts by Lambert Strether\" rel=\"author\">Lambert Strether<\/a><\/span><\/span>. <\/p>\n<div class=\"author-info\">\n<div class=\"author-description\">\n<h2>About Lambert Strether<\/h2>\n<p>Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (\u201cBecause markets\u201d). I don\u2019t much care about the \u201cism\u201d that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don\u2019t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.<br \/>\nTo me, the key issue \u2014 and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me \u2014 is the tens of thousands of excess \u201cdeaths from despair,\u201d as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics \u2014 even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton\u2019s wars created \u2014 bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow \u2014 currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press \u2014 a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let\u2019s call such voices \u201cthe left.\u201d Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn\u2019t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I\u2019ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n<nav class=\"nav-single\">\n<h3 class=\"assistive-text\">Post navigation<\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"nav-previous list-posts-older\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/the-logistics-great-game.html\" rel=\"prev\"><span class=\"meta-nav\">\u2190<\/span> The Great Game of Logistics<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"nav-next list-posts-newer\"\/><br \/>\n<\/nav>\n<footer id=\"colophon\" role=\"contentinfo\">\n<\/footer>\n<\/td>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-23-2024.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day I thought I would try some nightingales\u2026. Common Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, C\u00f3rdoba, Andaluc\u00eda, Spain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":86251,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,183],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-spotlight"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86250\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}