{"id":85910,"date":"2024-10-15T23:33:57","date_gmt":"2024-10-15T23:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/15\/200pm-water-cooler-10-15-2024-naked-capitalism\/"},"modified":"2024-10-15T23:33:57","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T23:33:57","slug":"200pm-water-cooler-10-15-2024-naked-capitalism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/15\/200pm-water-cooler-10-15-2024-naked-capitalism\/","title":{"rendered":"2:00PM Water Cooler 10\/15\/2024 | naked capitalism"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Monta\u00f1a de Izopo\u2013Sector Las Moras, Francisco Moraz\u00e1n, Honduras. \u201cLonger cut of quiet song of clipped low phrases with sudden louder bursts interspersed, including mechanical-sounding vocalizations. Also heard are Painted Redstart, Dusky-capped Flycatcher, Wilson\u2019s Warbler, Orange-billed Nightingale-Thrush, and Hairy Woodpecker.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>Less than thirty days to go!<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/free.timeanddate.com\/countdown\/i8ubjj5e\/n179\/cf100\/cm0\/cu1\/ct0\/cs1\/ca0\/cr0\/ss0\/cac000\/cpc000\/pcfff\/tcfff\/fs100\/szw320\/szh135\/tatTime%20left%20to%20Election%20Day%2C%202024\/tac000\/tptTime%20since%20Event%20started%20in\/tpc000\/mac000\/mpc000\/iso2024-11-05T00:00:00\/bo2\/pd2\" allowtransparency=\"true\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"322\" height=\"137\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> <a name=\"rcp\"\/>Friday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">RCP<\/a> Poll Averages:<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"972\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280203\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-11.png 630w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-11-194x300.png 194w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-11-624x963.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be <sub>MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!<\/sub>.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cTrump is in a better polling spot now than he was against Clinton or Biden\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2024\/10\/12\/polls-trump-vs-harris-biden-clinton\/75532448007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">USA Today<\/a>]. \u201cIf polls are any guide \u2013 and there are many questions about them \u2013 Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is in better shape now than he was at this time in 2020 and in his winning White House campaign of 2016. Yes, Trump trails Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in most polls. But the all-important caveat is that he\u2019s down against the incumbent vice president by smaller margins than he faced in his first two general elections \u2013 both of which saw him score higher with actual voters than the ones who responded to pollsters.\u201d \u2022 Handy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2024\/10\/12\/polls-trump-vs-harris-biden-clinton\/75532448007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">chart<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/trump-v-clinton_poll.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"390\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/trump-v-clinton_poll.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/trump-v-clinton_poll-300x195.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"kamala\"\/>Kamala (D): \u201cTensions rise between Harris and Biden teams as election nears\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/10\/13\/kamala-harris-biden-campaign-tension\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Axios<\/a>]. \u201cBiden gave an impromptu press conference in the White House briefing room Friday just as Harris was about to do an event in Michigan, ensuring that her event would get less TV coverage than it otherwise would have. Earlier in the week, Harris criticized Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for not taking her call about the recent hurricanes, only for Biden to praise DeSantis soon after for being \u2018gracious\u2019 and \u2018cooperative.\u2019 (A person familiar with the situation told Axios that Biden hadn\u2019t been briefed on Harris\u2019 comments.) Biden has been eager to boast about a robust jobs report, helping to end the strike by the longshoremen\u2019s union and other perceived victories recently. Harris has been trying to focus on voters\u2019 pocketbook concerns, including inflation. One person involved with Harris\u2019 campaign told Axios: \u2018The White House is lacking someone in the room thinking first and foremost about how things would affect the campaign.&#8217;\u201d \u2022 I\u2019m starting to think \u201croom\u201d needs to be one of those words. Once you notice it, it\u2019s everywhere. Started witb \u201cadults in the room,\u201d I think. Remember them?<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cKamala Harris\u2019 press tour was a missed opportunity\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msnbc.com\/opinion\/msnbc-opinion\/kamala-harris-60-minutes-call-her-daddy-the-view-rcna175077\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">MSNBC<\/a>]. \u201cAnd that is the problem: The Harris campaign conducted this tour not because it had something new to say, but because it needed to redirect the media narrative about its candidate. \u2018There is at times an impression that her campaign consists almost entirely of pivots,\u2019 Alex Shephard <a href=\"https:\/\/newrepublic.com\/series\/53\/kamala-harris-making-mistakes-made-2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">smartly observed<\/a> in The New Republic earlier this week, while a New York Times <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/09\/us\/politics\/harris-interviews-analysis.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">headline<\/a> said she \u2018Continues to Bob and Weave\u2019 in interviews. It all adds to the very mood the press tour was supposed to dispel.\u201d And: \u201cAs the media tour came to a close with a Univision town hall on Thursday night, I was left with the same vague impression I had before the press tour \u2014 which makes that tour a massive missed opportunity. There was no moment akin to Bill Clinton blowing the horn on \u2018The Arsenio Hall Show\u2019 in 1992, nothing surprising or unexpected. Running out the clock may [???] not be an option. \u2018Polls coming in show Harris peaked and interviews not helping. Swing states trending away from Harris,\u2019 veteran pollster Mark Penn wrote in a social media post. \u2018It\u2019s not over until it\u2019s over and this is still on a razor\u2019s edge so it can flip back but that\u2019s a fair read of newest polling.\u2019 And in The New York Times, the former Obama communications director Daniel Pfeiffer pointed out that Trump is making critical inroads with younger men by appearing on nontraditional podcasts and streaming shows. Pfeiffer observed that 13 million people watched Trump\u2019s interview with comedian Theo Von, \u2018about twice the viewership of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz\u2019s much ballyhooed interview with Dana Bash of CNN.&#8217;\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cInside the media blitz: three days on the campaign trail with Kamala Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/oct\/13\/kamala-harris-shortest-presidential-campaign-trail\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Guardian<\/a>]. \u201cShe was comfortable in her skin.\u201d \u2022\u00a0I haven\u2019t heard that one deployed in years. <\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): So much for Black Insurrectionist? He of the Tim Walz oppo?<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why did Black Insurrectionist change his bio since yesterday? Where\u2019s the next drops? I think I\u2019ve\/we\u2019ve been duped <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cX0uU6mKm1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/cX0uU6mKm1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8ULTRA MAGA 1776\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 (@MAGAMARIE3) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MAGAMARIE3\/status\/1845945679161458825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 14, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Note the followers on the left hand screen shot, who disappeared on the right hand screen shot. And when you\u2019ve lost Megyn Kelly:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I don\u2019t know whether the stuff being peddled by a certain X account re: Tim Walz has even a scintilla of truth behind it. I see the many obvious red flags.<br \/>What I can report is that a month ago this same account claimed he had an ABC whistleblower (1) alleging serious ethical\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/megynkelly\/status\/1845932288372056403?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 14, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cDemocratic voter registration raises red flags for Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4929781-voter-registration-democrats-pennsylvania-nc-nevada\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">The Hill<\/a>]. \u201cDemocrats\u2019 voter registration advantage has dropped in three key battleground states \u2014 Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada \u2014 raising a red flag for Vice President Harris as experts cite a lack of enthusiasm for the Biden administration brand and the Democratic Party, generally, as problems.\u201d And: \u201cDavid Paleologos, the director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, said Democrats had about a 666,000-person voter registration advantage over Republicans in Pennsylvania in 2020, which has shrunk to a 354,000-person advantage in 2024. He said the Democrats\u2019 voter registration advantage in North Carolina has shrunk from 393,000 voters in 2020 to approximately 130,000 voters in 2024. \u2018The general shift has been away from being registered as a Democrat over the last four years,\u2019 Paleologos told The Hill.\u2019 It\u2019s been more of a decrease of registered Democrats\u2019 than a surge in Republican voter registrations, he explained. \u2018I don\u2019t think a lot of people have really put their arms around the fact that when Trump won North Carolina in 2020, there were like 390,000 more registered Democrats and he still won, and today the advantage of Democrats over Republicans is only like 130,000. It\u2019s been cut by two-thirds of an advantage,\u201d he said.\u201d And: \u201cIn Nevada, Paleologos said Democrats have seen their voter registration advantage fall away. He said Democrats\u2019 had a net registration advantage of nearly 79,000 in 2020. It has since fallen to a net advantage of 29,000 registered voters. \u2018It could be enough to keep it close, or it could go to Trump, just because they\u2019ve lost 50,000 net registered Democrats,\u2019 he said.\u201d \u2022 <\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cCNN\u2019s Enten: GOP Has Made Big Gains In Party Registration, Identification Since 2020\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/video\/2024\/10\/13\/cnns_enten_party_registration_data_better_for_republicans_today_than_average_in_elections_theyve_won.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">RealClearPolitics<\/a>]. \u201cCNN\u2019s Harry Enten looked at party registration data in the swing states and nationally ahead of the 2024 election, which he says compared to past elections, suggests Republicans are on track to win\u2026. The question is: Where are they picking up ground? This, to me, says it all. If you look at Pennsylvania counties where the GOP has gained in registration, in counties where less than 50% of the population is non-college white voters, Republicans have gained just a point. But in areas where over 50% are non-college whites, look at this\u2014Republicans have gained six points on average. They\u2019re picking up ground in the areas you\u2019d expect: non-college white-dominated areas, coal country in the northeast, southwest outside of Pittsburgh. The bottom line is, the registration trends we\u2019ve been seeing over the last few cycles \u2014 with Republicans dominating among non-college white voters \u2014 are very much showing up in party registration.\u201d And: \u201cParty registration is when you\u2019re actually registered with a party. Party ID is when you say, \u2018I feel like a Democrat today\u2019 or \u2018I feel like a Republican.\u2019 They\u2019re correlated, but they\u2019re not exactly the same. The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win. If there\u2019s one little nugget that I think Republicans are really helpful for this party ID and this party registration data, it really points in a good direction for them and for Donald Trump.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cHarris rallies in a Pennsylvania bellwether county, calling Trump too \u2018unstable and unhinged\u2019 to be president\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/kamala-harris-rallies-pennsylvania-bellwether-county-focuses-blue-wall-rcna175046\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NBC<\/a>]. \u201cTo make up for any losses in rural areas, Harris\u2019 campaign has sought to court Nikki Haley voters from the GOP primaries, who are concentrated largely in well-educated suburbs and could help Harris grow her coalition and improve on Biden\u2019s 2020 margins.\u201d \u2022 Hence, Dick Cheney\u2019s spawn.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): \u201cHarris Fights to Counter Trump\u2019s Appeal With Black Men\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/xXn4z\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Wall Street Journal<\/a>]. On Obama\u2019s intervention: \u201c\u201d\u2018While I understand the sentiment of having a desire to see increased engagement, chastising voters has never worked, and it won\u2019t work this time either,\u2019 said [Quentin James, founder and president of the Collective PAC, a pro-Harris group], who gave the Harris campaign feedback on the new set of policies rolled out on Monday aimed at improving the economic position of Black men. Asked if it would be helpful for Obama to reiterate those comments at future campaign stops, James said: \u2018If the goal is to increase Black male engagement, hell no.&#8217;\u201d More: \u201cThe new policies and football meetup [stereotype] are part of Harris\u2019s latest efforts to reach out to Black men, a core constituency for the party. Polling shows a potential lack of enthusiasm among those voters with early voting already under way in some states. Securing the support of Black men could prove decisive in key battleground races, particularly as Harris attempts to drive up turnout in places like Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. The vice president wants to offer one million forgivable business loans for Black entrepreneurs to use to start businesses, create more training and apprenticeship programs and study diseases, such as diabetes and sickle cell anemia, that predominantly affect Black men\u2026. The Harris campaign\u2019s self-described \u2018opportunity agenda for Black men\u2019 would regulate cryptocurrency and digital currencies to protect Black investors, promote more Black men into the teaching profession and reiterate the vice president\u2019s support for legalizing marijuana.\u201d \u2022 Maybe I didn\u2019t get the memo, but I don\u2019t see how crypto fits in here. Also, speaking of an \u201copportunity economy,\u201d how about an amnesty for the marijuana growers and dealers who built a business sector now worth billions? Legalization is not enough.<\/p>\n<p>Kamala (D): Maybe the the \u201cManly Man\u201d ad wasn\u2019t aimed at <em>men<\/em> at all? Hat tip Nippersdad:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"The &quot;Men For Kamala&quot; Ad Has Everything BUT Men!\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/m3-QN854DzQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Maybe I\u2019m assuming the Harris hive mind is more Machiavellian than it really is, but maybe the ad \u2014 hear me out \u2014 was aimed at suburban women? (\u201cWe promise men will be as men are in this ad\u201d). Sort of a very light touch version of Lysistratic Non-Action. Just a thought! And on white women:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Harris is doing the best for a Democratic presidential candidate among white women in the 21st century\u2026 That&#8217;s big cause they make up such a large chunk of the electorate\u2026 <\/p>\n<p>Why is Harris doing so well? It would appear that abortion rights is a driving force\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zQHFifAwcf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/zQHFifAwcf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ForecasterEnten\/status\/1846214900705644708\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 15, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"trump\"\/>Trump (R): \u201cTrump\u2019s Pennsylvania town hall, interrupted by medical emergencies in crowd, turned into an impromptu concert\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/trump-town-hall-derailed-after-medical-emergencies-crowd\/story?id=114796716\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ABC<\/a>]. \u201cFormer President Donald Trump\u2019s town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, on Monday evening was interrupted twice by medical emergencies in a very warm Greater Philadelphia Expo Center and Fairgrounds before he pivoted \u2014 turning the concert into an impromptu concert where he stood on stage swaying to music for nearly 45 minutes. There was a medical emergency that required an attendee to be placed on a stretcher about 30 minutes into the event. As the crowd started singing \u2018God Bless America,\u2019 Trump requested that \u2018Ave Maria\u2019 be played on the loudspeakers as medics tended to the man. Moments later, there was a second medical emergency\u2026. Following the medical emergencies, Trump requested that the doors be opened but he was advised that for security reasons that wasn\u2019t possible. Both Trump and moderator South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem commented on the heat in the room\u2026. He continued, \u201cLet\u2019s not do any more questions. Let\u2019s just listen to music. Let\u2019s make it into a music fest. Who the hell wants to hear questions right? Isn\u2019t that beautiful?\u201d The former president, adamant about playing his music, stood on stage for nearly 45 minutes swaying to several songs on his playlist as the crowd sang and danced along. The crowd slowly dispersed, but many stayed for the entirety of the campaign event.\u201d \u00a8\u2022 There\u2019s a lot of dogpiling over this on the Twitter, but if the crowd was singing and dancing along, and they didn\u2019t leave, I think that\u2019s great, and great word-of-mouth for Trump (reminds me of a Grateful Dead concert when the sound system failed). Hard to imagine Kamala doing this (no experience with show business, no similar connection to the crowd, I\u2019m guessing, and no capacity to improvise as Trump did. I imagine the staff would have shut the rally down entirely, which <em>would<\/em> have been a debacle).<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>PA: \u201cHarris rallies in a Pennsylvania bellwether county, calling Trump too \u2018unstable and unhinged\u2019 to be president\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/kamala-harris-rallies-pennsylvania-bellwether-county-focuses-blue-wall-rcna175046\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NBC<\/a>]. \u201cERIE, Pa. \u2014 Vice President Kamala Harris rallied a packed crowd Monday night in Erie County, a bellwether that has a knack for predicting who carries Pennsylvania, having mirrored the outcome of this crucial battleground state in the last four elections. Harris sharpened her attacks on Donald Trump, using a big screen to play clips of the former president calling for outlawing dissent and criticisms among \u2018the enemy within.&#8217;\u201d The big screen is new, I think. More: \u201c[Erie\u2019s] median income is lower than the national average, as is its share of college-educated people\u2026. Fetterman won the state by maximizing votes in the metropolitan areas and limiting his margins of defeat in the red-trending rural areas. Now, he\u2019s trying to help Harris do the same. While Obama and Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied Thursday in Pittsburgh, Fetterman toured the red counties to make the case for her\u2026. \u2018Sometimes it\u2019s not about turning these counties blue. You\u2019re not going to change the culture of rural-county Pennsylvania. It\u2019s about reaching out to reachable people,\u2019 he said. \u2018I would be surprised if she wins by 3 points. She will win Pennsylvania, but I would expect it might be closer than that.&#8217;\u201d<\/p>\n<p>PA: \u201cHow Pittsburgh\u2019s Suburbs Could Flip Pennsylvania to Trump\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpennsylvania.com\/articles\/2024\/10\/14\/how_pittsburghs_suburbs_could_flip_pennsylvania_to_trump_1065067.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">RealClearPennsylvania<\/a>]. \u201d Instead, the focus lies on subdivision-spawned places like Cranberry Township to the north, the bedroom communities of southern Butler County, and the once-solid Rust Belt Democrat precincts of Washington County to the south. These areas, many of which have been reliable parts of the Democratic coalition since the time of the New Deal, are trending Republican in ways that should alarm party strategists. This oversight is partly understandable \u2013 the Philadelphia metro area is significantly larger (6.3 million people as opposed to Pittsburgh\u2019s 2.37 million), richer, and several hours closer to major media markets. But it\u2019s a mistake that could lead to how-could-it-happen-here headlines on election night if the GOP secures a win on the back of southwestern Pennsylvania\u2019s suburban voters. The numbers paint a stark picture of this evolution. In 2000, Democrats carried Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, plus the seven surrounding counties by nearly 86,000 votes. By 2020, despite massive Democratic gains within Pittsburgh city limits, this same region swung to the Republicans by 38,000 votes. In a state decided by razor-thin margins in recent presidential contests, this 124,000-vote swing is seismic. Cranberry Township exemplifies this change. Once a sleepy rural community, it\u2019s now a booming strip mall and chain eatery-lined suburb of over 30,000 people, more than 90% of whom are white, with a decidedly Republican lean. In 2020, Donald Trump carried Cranberry with over 60% of the vote, a margin unthinkable just a few decades ago when union-affiliated Democratic voters dominated the region. The transformation is even more pronounced in Washington County, once the very definition of a union stronghold. Trump won the county by a staggering 22-point margin in 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>PA: \u201cA week in a swing state taught me a lot about the Maga cult, and gave me hope for Kamala Harris\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2024\/oct\/12\/a-week-in-a-swing-state-taught-me-a-lot-about-the-maga-cult-and-gave-me-hope-for-kamala-harris-pennsylvania\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Guardian<\/a>]. Worth a read, but holy moley. This editorial note sums it up: \u201cThis article was amended on 13 October 2024 because an earlier version said that Hurricane Helene \u201cripped through the south-west\u201d. In fact the hurricane affected the south-east region.\u201d Here is a writer who really knows America!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n<p>Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n<p>Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>Transmission: H5N1<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Ulp (1):<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/birdflu_adams-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"1043\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/birdflu_adams-1.png 500w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/birdflu_adams-1-144x300.png 144w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/birdflu_adams-1-491x1024.png 491w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Ulp (2):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u201cmilking: ~12 hours a day in close contact w\/ cows. <\/p>\n<p>udders ~ high viral loads<\/p>\n<p>need PPE to stop H5N1 bird flu and protect farmworkers, but hard to wear for hours in heat.<\/p>\n<p>need full head helmet w\/ powered, purified airflow.\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qwMz0MelAD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/qwMz0MelAD<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RanuDhillon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">@RanuDhillon<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kTxu72t2v1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/kTxu72t2v1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Devabhaktuni &#8220;Sri&#8221; Srikrishna (@sri_srikrishna) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sri_srikrishna\/status\/1846132999160574372\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 15, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>If we were <em>planning<\/em> for a second pandemic \u2014 on top of Covid already weakened immunue systems at a population level \u2014 it\u2019s to see how we could be doing a better job. And wastewater:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/birdflu_wastewater.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"358\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/birdflu_wastewater.png 500w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/birdflu_wastewater-300x215.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\"\/><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Vaccines<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cNew Nasal Vaccines Offer Better Protection from COVID and Flu\u2014No Needle Needed\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/new-nasal-vaccines-offer-stronger-protection-from-covid-flu-and-more-no-needle-needed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Scientific American<\/a>]. \u201cVaccines delivered through the nose are now being tested for several diseases. In the U.S., early clinical trials are showing success. Two of these vaccines have generated multiple immune system responses against the COVID-causing virus in people who received them through a puff up the nose; earlier this year their makers received nearly $20 million from Project NextGen, the Biden-Harris administration\u2019s COVID medical initiative. Researchers are optimistic that a nasal spray delivering a COVID vaccine could be ready for the U.S. as soon as 2027. Although recent efforts have focused on inoculations against SARS-CoV-2, nasal vaccines could also protect us against the flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and more.\u201d \u2022\u00a02027 [bangs head on desk].<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Sequelae: Covid<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cCOVID-19 raises the stakes for heart attacks, strokes, and even death long after infection, new study finds\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/10\/11\/covid-19-heart-attacks-strokes-death-long-after-infection-new-study-health\/?abc123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Fortune<\/a>]. \u201cPractically from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and medical experts feared\u2013and often loudly warned\u2013that the virus wasn\u2019t like other infections that people might encounter during, say, flu season. SARS-CoV-2 was different. It was worse. And the potential long-term effects, as we reported <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2022\/10\/06\/strokes-heart-attacks-sudden-death-america-long-term-risks-catching-covid-carolyn-barber\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">two years ago<\/a>, were even more worrisome. A new large-scale <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ahajournals.org\/doi\/10.1161\/ATVBAHA.124.321001\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">study<\/a> puts those longer-range concerns into bold relief. The results are as unforgiving as many experts had hypothesized. The study, involving nearly a quarter-million adults, found that those with any type of COVID-19 infection in 2020 had twice the risk of suffering a major cardiac event\u2014a heart attack, stroke, or even death\u2014in the three years after a diagnosis than those who weren\u2019t infected. People whose infections were severe enough to warrant hospitalization faced nearly a four times greater risk of a major cardiac event or death than the uninfected group. \u2018These findings are undeniable and extremely troubling,\u2019 says David Putrino, the director of the Cohen Center for Recovery from Complex Chronic Illness at Mount Sinai School of Medicine. \u2018The significance of this work is that our current public health policy surrounding COVID-19 is inadequate. People need to be informed of the risks they are incurring to their long-term health by being repeatedly infected with SARS-CoV-2.&#8217;\u201d \u2022 Oh, yeah, personal risk assessment, that\u2019s been working great. Why not clean the air?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLong COVID Rates in Kids Revised Upward: What to Know\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medscape.com\/viewarticle\/long-covid-rates-kids-revised-upward-what-know-2024a1000hzi?form=fpf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">MedScape<\/a>]. \u201cIn the most expansive study of its kind, researchers have for the first time shown serious and prevalent symptoms of long COVID in kids and teens. The August study, published in the <a href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2822770\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Journal of the American Medical Association<\/a>, is among the first large comprehensive studies of the disorder in this age group. The study, which followed 5367 children, found that 20% of kids (ages 6-11) and 14% of teens met researchers\u2019 threshold for long COVID. Until now, research has been lacking because children were thought to be less susceptible to both acute COVID-19 and long COVID, experts say. But by some estimates, up to <a href=\"https:\/\/publications.aap.org\/pediatrics\/article\/153\/3\/e2023062570\/196606\/Postacute-Sequelae-of-SARS-CoV-2-in-Children?autologincheck=redirected\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">5.8 million kids<\/a> and teens have the disorder. Study author Rachel Gross, MD, an associate professor in the departments of pediatrics and population health at NYU Langone, is in line with the percentage of adults diagnosed with long COVID.\u201d \u2022 Remember in the beginning, when the minimizers told us children didn\u2019t even <em>get<\/em> Covid? Good times. Handy chart:<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Social Norming<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Another reason for denial:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">my dad exposed me to covid, i got it, got longcovid, lost everything. we havent spoken since it happened, he hasnt even attempted to nor said he loves me since i got sick. he disappeared rather than admit he messed up. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Z5zCSQSWLT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/Z5zCSQSWLT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 \ud83c\udfa8Artsy M*rxist \ud83c\udfa8 (commissions waitlist open) (@ArtsyMarx1st) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ArtsyMarx1st\/status\/1846006794109551063\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 15, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Rule #2 is universal in scope:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tern_guilt.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"1027\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tern_guilt.png 500w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tern_guilt-146x300.png 146w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/tern_guilt-499x1024.png 499w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\"\/><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"table\"\/><strong>TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Wastewater<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> This week[1] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 5<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Last Week[2] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> (until next week):<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" style=\"align: left; margin-left: 0px !important; padding: 9px 0 9px 0;\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-279439\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-3.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-3-300x209.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong> Variants<\/strong> [3] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery#variant-proportions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 12<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> <strong>Emergency Room Visits<\/strong>[4] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_select_7dayeddiagnosed_00\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> October 5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl-300x235.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ed-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280208\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ed-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ed-natl-300x172.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Hospitalization<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">New York[5] <a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.health.ny.gov\/daily-hospitalization-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">New York State<\/a>, data October 10:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> National [6] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/covidnetdashboard\/de\/powerbi\/dashboard.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 21:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280213\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-5.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-5-300x170.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280209\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-1-243x300.png 243w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Positivity<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> National[7] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.walgreens.com\/healthcare-solutions\/covid-19-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Walgreens<\/a> October 7:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Ohio[8] <a href=\"https:\/\/clevelandcliniclabs.com\/respiratory-virus-surveillance-statistics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Cleveland Clinic<\/a> October 5:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280329\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-1-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280059\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-1-300x213.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Travelers Data<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> Positivity[9] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#traveler-genomic-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 16:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">Variants[10] <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#traveler-genomic-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 16:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280210\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-1-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-280212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-1-300x195.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr colspan=\"2\">\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Deaths<\/strong><\/td>\n<td\/>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\"> Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]<a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronavirusdisease2019\/what-you-should-know\/current-situation-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 28:<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"> Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]<a href=\"https:\/\/health.hawaii.gov\/coronadisease2019\/what-you-should-know\/current-situation-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CDC<\/a> September 28:<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl\u0327.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-279827\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl\u0327.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl\u0327-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p><span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <span class=\"Apple-tab-span\"> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-279826\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl.png 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<td>\n<p><strong>LEGEND<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1) <span style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: gold;\">\u2605<\/span> for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n<p>2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOTES<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can\u2019t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!<\/p>\n<p>[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n<p>[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.<\/p>\n<p>[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.<\/p>\n<p>[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the \u201ceverything in greenish pastels\u201d crowd has gotten to this chart.<\/p>\n<p>[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!<\/p>\n<p>[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.<\/p>\n<p>[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.<\/p>\n<p>[10] (Travelers: Variants).<\/p>\n<p>[11] Deaths low, positivity down.<\/p>\n<p>[12] Deaths low, ED down.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stats Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cUnited States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/ny-empire-state-manufacturing-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Trading Economics<\/a>]. \u201cThe NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted to -11.9 in October 2024, down from 11.5 in September and surprising analysts who expected it at 3.8. This marks the worst reading since May, pointing to a renewed contraction in the New York State and at a solid pace.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"boeing\"\/>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing\u2019s crisis is getting worse. Now it\u2019s borrowing tens of billions of dollars\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/10\/15\/investing\/boeing-cash-crisis\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CNN<\/a>]. \u201cIn a regulatory filing early Tuesday, the company announced plans to borrow $10 billion from a consortium of banks. It also separately announced plans to raise $25 billion by selling stock and debt. The $10 billion borrowing plans would be included in the $25 billion that Boeing filed to raise\u2026. Boeing\u2019s credit rating has plunged to the lowest investment-grade level \u2013 just above \u201cjunk bond\u201d status \u2013 and major credit rating agencies have warned Boeing is in danger of being downgraded to junk. That would raise its cost of borrowing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cOfficial: Boeing 777X delivery delayed until at least 2026\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/milelion.com\/2024\/10\/12\/official-boeing-777x-delivery-delayed-until-at-least-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Mile Lion<\/a>]. \u201cUp till recently, Boeing was still making optimistic noises about a late 2025 debut for the aircraft, with Emirates CEO Tim Clark stating at the 2023 Dubai Airshow that he hoped to get his first B777-9 by October 2025. But that was always going to be a tall order, and now we have official confirmation of what\u2019s perhaps the worst-kept secret in aviation: the Boeing 777X is officially delayed till at least 2026. Keep in mind, it\u2019s not just the work stoppage that\u2019s the problem. The B777X has had a torrid time with its certification, with the FAA chiding the airline at one point that its proposed certification schedule was \u2018outdated and no longer reflect the programme activities.\u2019 While the all-important Type Inspection Authorisation (TIA) was granted in July 2024, enabling the company to begin the certification process, it\u2019s not all been smooth sailing. Just a couple of months ago, the test fleet was grounded after a routine post-flight inspection revealed the failure of a thrust link that mounts the engine to the aircraft.\u201d \u2022 Yikes.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cEmirates\u2019 Clark raises \u2018looming\u2019 specter of Boeing bankruptcy protection\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/theaircurrent.com\/industry-strategy\/emirates-clark-raises-looming-specter-of-boeing-bankruptcy-protection\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">The Air Current<\/a>]. \u201cIn an email to <i>The Air Current<\/i> following the announced Oct. 11 delay to the certification of Boeing\u2019s 777-9 flagship jetliner, [Emirates president Sir Tim Clark, Boeing\u2019s largest twin-aisle jet customer,] said, \u2018Unless the company is able to raise funds through a Rights Issue, I see an imminent investment downgrade with Chapter 11 looming on the horizon.&#8217;\u201d \u2022 Or nationalization.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing Is Flexing the Financial Muscle It Has Left\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/GjWIg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a>]. The deck: \u201cInvestors are betting that a backlog of almost 5,500 aircraft will eventually unlock a mountain of cash.\u201d More: \u201cWell, the company has about 5,500 aircraft that it has already sold and only needs to assemble and deliver. Investors see a mountain of cash locked up in that backlog. All the company has to do is settle a nasty strike of 33,000 machinists, revamp its work culture to put quality above all, stabilize its supply chain, finish work on the new 777X aircraft and crank out planes. In fewer words, Boeing needs to execute. This is a daunting task, and most investors believe the company has finally chosen the right person to pull off this historic turnaround after Kelly Ortberg was hired as chief executive officer in August. The thermometer for investor sentiment around Boeing\u2019s ability to right the ship will be reflected in the price of the new shares, which could raise $10 billion or more to help shore up its finances.\u201d \u2022 So I guess that\u2019s why Ortberg is busting the machinist\u2019s chops? For \u201cinvestor sentiment\u201d?<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing layoff plan suggests deep white-collar job cuts\u201d [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/boeing-aerospace\/boeing-layoff-plan-suggests-deep-white-collar-job-cuts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Seattle Times<\/a>]. \u201cThe exclusion for now of 33,000 Machinists from the planned cuts means that Boeing can reach the 10% target stated in the slides for the Commercial Airplanes unit only through deep cuts among the white-collar staff, including engineers and nonunion salaried employees\u2026. Perhaps the thinking is that laying off Machinists now might inflame passions and make the strike more difficult to settle. If that\u2019s so, blue-collar layoffs could come later. Still, the need for the layoffs has little to do with the Machinists\u2019 strike. It\u2019s a restructuring by new CEO Kelly Ortberg designed to address the broader and deeper problems Boeing faces\u2026.The only way forward for Boeing is to start building planes again and to ramp up production back to the rates planned before the January blowout. To achieve those rates, it had been hiring machinists at a rapid clip. Whenever the strike ends, it will need most of those machinists ready to swing into action.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s Fear &amp; Greed Index: 74 Greed (previous close: 76 Extreme Greed) [<a href=\"https:\/\/money.cnn.com\/data\/fear-and-greed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CNN<\/a>]. One week ago: 70 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The<del>Current<\/del> Cinema<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The production process for silent films:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">On this day in 1893, silent superstar Lillian Gish was born in Springfield, Ohio. In 1988, I wrote to her asking if silent films had actual dialogue written out in the scripts or if there was just a general description of what was being said. This was her remarkable reply. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Tzv8EgnZhz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/Tzv8EgnZhz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Steve Stoliar (@StoliarSteve) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/StoliarSteve\/status\/1845851337868664909\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 14, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Photo Book<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Via alert reader Wukchumi:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/time.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"800\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/time.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/time-225x300.jpeg 225w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\u201cTime is what you make of it.\u201d I wish! <\/p>\n<p><a name=\"class\"\/><strong>Class Warfare<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Slaves (implicit):<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">yeah the clear goal of this technology is to be able to outsource in-person service jobs to hyper-exploited workers in the global south, not liberate human labor from service work. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AvXwuqtVlH\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/AvXwuqtVlH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Cassie Pritchard (@hecubian_devil) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hecubian_devil\/status\/1845277537360019513\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 13, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Of course, the goal is <em>never<\/em> to \u201cliberate human labor.\u201d Who would be silly enough to imagine that?<\/p>\n<p>Slaves (explicit). ANC = African National Congress:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Imagine having a housekeeper that doesn&#8217;t vote ANC, doesn&#8217;t have 55 uncle&#8217;s funerals to attend every year, won&#8217;t steal your food, and you only have to pay for it once?<\/p>\n<p>Sign me up <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IW8XrREn5Q\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/IW8XrREn5Q<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Keanu (@Keanubtc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Keanubtc\/status\/1844632453404852272\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">October 11, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou only have to pay for it once.\u201d Indeed. Now if we can just get them to reproduce\u2026<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"wired\"\/><strong>News of the Wired<\/strong><br \/>I am not feeling wired today.<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Contact information for plants<\/strong>: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-14-2024.html\">here<\/a>. From TH:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rose_1.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"403\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-280399\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rose_1.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rose_1-300x202.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>TH writes: \u201cHere in Westminster, California, a rose society lives at the Civic center, so, due to their many gardens of roses, I have an abundant supply of rose photos. Sorry if the border is a bit much. Feel free to crop.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><center>* * *<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a name=\"donate\"\/><strong>Readers<\/strong>: Water Cooler is a standalone entity <em>not<\/em> covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert\u2019s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! <em>Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage<\/em>. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n<p>Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-226891\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"606\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png 606w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution-300x190.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-alignleft\"><a href=\"#\" rel=\"nofollow\" onclick=\"window.print(); return false;\" title=\"Printer Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;-webkit-box-shadow:none; -moz-box-shadow: none; box-shadow:none; padding:0; margin:0\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\" alt=\"Print Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\nThis entry was posted in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/category\/guest-post\" rel=\"category tag\">Guest Post<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/category\/water-cooler\" rel=\"category tag\">Water Cooler<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-15-2024.html\" title=\"2:00 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date updated\" datetime=\"2024-10-15T14:00:29-04:00\">October 15, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/author\/lambert-strether\" title=\"View all posts by Lambert Strether\" rel=\"author\">Lambert Strether<\/a><\/span><\/span>. <\/p>\n<div class=\"author-info\">\n<div class=\"author-description\">\n<h2>About Lambert Strether<\/h2>\n<p>Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (\u201cBecause markets\u201d). I don\u2019t much care about the \u201cism\u201d that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don\u2019t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.<br \/>\nTo me, the key issue \u2014 and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me \u2014 is the tens of thousands of excess \u201cdeaths from despair,\u201d as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics \u2014 even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton\u2019s wars created \u2014 bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow \u2014 currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press \u2014 a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let\u2019s call such voices \u201cthe left.\u201d Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn\u2019t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I\u2019ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n<nav class=\"nav-single\">\n<h3 class=\"assistive-text\">Post navigation<\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"nav-previous list-posts-older\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/europes-blue-hydrogen-plans-risk-generating-annual-emissions-on-par-with-denmark.html\" rel=\"prev\"><span class=\"meta-nav\">\u2190<\/span> Europe\u2019s Blue Hydrogen Plans Risk Generating Annual Emissions on Par With Denmark<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"nav-next list-posts-newer\"\/><br \/>\n<\/nav>\n<footer id=\"colophon\" role=\"contentinfo\">\n<\/footer>\n<\/td>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2024\/10\/200pm-water-cooler-10-15-2024.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Monta\u00f1a de Izopo\u2013Sector Las Moras, Francisco Moraz\u00e1n, Honduras. \u201cLonger cut of quiet song of clipped low phrases with<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":85911,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,183],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-spotlight"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85910","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85910"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85910\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85911"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85910"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85910"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85910"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}