{"id":85598,"date":"2024-10-08T21:05:39","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T21:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/08\/light-wonder-dragon-train-decline-overdone-stock-cheap\/"},"modified":"2024-10-08T21:05:39","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T21:05:39","slug":"light-wonder-dragon-train-decline-overdone-stock-cheap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/08\/light-wonder-dragon-train-decline-overdone-stock-cheap\/","title":{"rendered":"Light &#038; Wonder \u2018Dragon Train\u2019 Decline Overdone, Stock Cheap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"post-content__sub-title\">\n        Posted on: October 8, 2024, 04:04h.\u00a0\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__sub-title\">\n        Last updated on: October 8, 2024, 04:04h.\n    <\/p>\n<div class=\"post-info-panel\">\n<div class=\"post-info-panel__author-holder js-open-close\">\n<div class=\"post-info-panel__author-logo\">\n                <img alt=\"Avatar photo\" src=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/cropped-11-50x50.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/cropped-11-100x100.png 2x\" class=\"avatar avatar-50 photo\" height=\"50\" width=\"50\" decoding=\"async\"\/>            <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Shares of Light &amp; Wonder (NASDAQ: LNW) tumbled last week following a legal ruling pertaining to its \u201cDragon Train\u201d series of slot machines, but one analyst argues the decline was too much, too soon and that the stock is undervalued.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_236429\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-236429\" data-style=\"width: 858px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-236429 size-post-thumbnail-858xAUTO\" src=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/LNW2-858x517.jpg\" alt=\"Light &amp; Wonder stock\" width=\"858\" height=\"517\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/LNW2-858x517.jpg 858w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/LNW2-430x259.jpg 430w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 858px) 100vw, 858px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-236429\" class=\"text-description\">The Light &amp; Wonder logo. An analyst says the stock is undervalued following the \u201cDragon Train\u201d slump. (Image: PR Newswire)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In a new report to clients, B. Riley analyst David Bain initiated coverage of the gaming device manufacturer with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and a $120 price target. That implies potential upside of about 25% from today\u2019s close. The analyst views the stock as deeply discounted relative to historical norms and its peer group.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"main-blockquote\">\n<p>Despite peer growth outperformance, a significantly de-levered balance sheet, and strong return of capital policies, LNW\u2019s enterprise value\/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV\/EBITDA) valuation is ~40% below its closest peer and 13% below its own historical valuation average,\u201d wrote Bain.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The stock slumped last week after the US District Court for the District of Nevada <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/light-wonder-stock-tumbles-as-aristocrat-wins-dragon-train-injunction\/\">granted a preliminary injunction<\/a> to Aristocrat Gaming, which asserted Light &amp; Wonder\u2019s \u201cDragon Train\u201d slots were based on trade secrets behind the Australian company\u2019s \u201cDragon Link\u201d games.<\/p>\n<h2>Light &amp; Wonder \u2018Dragon Train\u2019 Punishment Too Harsh<\/h2>\n<p>Though popular, \u201cDragon Train\u201d machines were expected to account for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/dragon-train-injunction-could-pinch-lnw-earnings-by-70m\/\">less than 5%, or $70 million<\/a>, of Light &amp; Wonder\u2019s expected 2025 EBITA of $1.4 billion \u2014 a forecast the company stood by in the wake of the aforementioned court ruling.<\/p>\n<div class=\"callout\">\n<p>That\u2019s a small percentage and one that arguably fortifies Bain\u2019s argument that the punishment endured last week by the stock was too severe. He noted the company has reiterated its 2025 forecasts and remains committed to returning capital to investors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cAfter estimating a potential success range from forward mitigation efforts and including possible one-time damages and previously unanticipated capex, we calculate a ~$6\/share negative impact from Dragon Train disruption,\u201d added the analyst. \u201cImportantly, LNW has at least twice publicly reiterated its CY25E $1.4B guidance since 9\/23 and stated that share buybacks will remain a key corporate focus.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>In a video posted to Light &amp; Wonder\u2019s investor relations website late last week, CEO Matt Wilson said the company is working to pull \u201cDragon Train\u201d slots in North America and replace those devices with its other titles, many of which are popular with bettors.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>SciPlay Catalyst for Light &amp; Wonder Shares<\/h2>\n<p>SciPlay, the social casino developer with which Light &amp; Wonder <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/light-wonder-sciplay-getting-back-together-in-new-deal\/\">reunited last year<\/a> following a 2019 spin-off, may be an underappreciated catalyst for the parent company\u2019s stock over the long-term.<\/p>\n<p>Bain pointed out that SciPlay is growing as the broader social casino industry plateaus, adding that the Light &amp; Wonder unit compares favorably to rivals.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cSciPlay\u2019s CY23\/1H24 revenue was up 16%\/9%, versus social casino industry declines of 1.6%\/3%. We expect SciPlay to continue to benefit from cross-platform resources\/content, entrance into the larger casual gaming total addressable market, and ad tech,\u201d concluded the analyst. \u201cFurther, SciPlay\u2019s direct-to-consumer mix efforts doubled Q\/Q to 12% of revenue in 2Q24. We calculate that a 30% D2C mix on CY25E SciPlay revenue, in line with industry leader Playtika Holding Corp., equates to an additional ~$25 million of recurring EBITDA (EBITDA margins to gain an estimated 300 bps).\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/light-wonder-dragon-train-decline-overdone-stock-cheap\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Posted on: October 8, 2024, 04:04h.\u00a0 Last updated on: October 8, 2024, 04:04h. Shares of Light &amp; Wonder (NASDAQ: LNW) tumbled last week following a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":85599,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[158],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gambling"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85598\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}