\n Posted on: May 4, 2026, 05:45h.\u00a0\n <\/p>\n
\n Last updated on: May 5, 2026, 03:21h.\n <\/p>\n
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- 80%+ of Polymarket users traded under <\/span>$10,000 in Q1.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n
- Only a <\/span>fraction of a percent reached six-figure volumes.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n
- Category expansion is now the primary lever for user growth.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
While prediction markets aim to attract institutional and whale capital, retail market participants continue to drive the industry\u2019s volume.<\/p>\n
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Retail traders account for a significant portion of volume on Polymarket, according to a new study. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller\/SOPA Images\/LightRocket via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n A new study carried out by Bitget Wallet and prediction market giant Polymarket<\/a> indicates that of the 1.29 million active wallets on Polymarket, 82.3% traded less than $10,000 in the first quarter, implying some level of retail behavior.<\/p>\n
Conversely, just 2.5% of those wallets drove more than $100,000 in trading volume in the first three months of the year.<\/p>\n
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This structure differs fundamentally from traditional financial markets such as derivatives or ETFs, where liquidity is typically concentrated among a small group of large players,\u201d the study states. \u201cHere, growth is driven by high participation at small ticket sizes, closer to consumer platforms than institutional trading environments.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
That jibes with previous data indicating the average trade size on Polymarket is just $89<\/a> and that 80% of traders on the platform place bets\/trades at less than $500.<\/p>\n
Some Signs Larger Traders Are Entering the Arena<\/h2>\n
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the number of Polymarket users in the whale and \u201cheavy user\u201d grew in both population and share terms \u2014 a positive sign for reduced dependence on retail traders \u2014 but there was also significant growth in the \u201cmedium\u201d cohort, suggesting retail traders<\/a> powering prediction market growth.<\/p>\n
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User growth among various segments on Polymarket. (Image: BIget\/Polymarket)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Another point of interest is that some heavy users slightly dial back activity (as measured in active days) over time while micro users do the opposite, expanding their active days as they become more familiar with Polymarket.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u201cLooking at users who remained active from Q4 2025 through Q1 2026, activity patterns diverge across tiers,\u201d notes the Bitget\/Polymarket study. \u201cHigher-volume users saw a modest decline in active days, while lower-volume users became more active over time, especially micro users, nearly doubling from 3.1 to 6.2 days. This suggests that while high-volume participation remains stable, a significant increase in engagement is occurring among smaller users.\u201d<\/p>\n
Crypto Is the Gateway<\/h2>\n
- Only a <\/span>fraction of a percent reached six-figure volumes.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n