{"id":108917,"date":"2026-04-25T13:23:03","date_gmt":"2026-04-25T13:23:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/25\/vaneck-flags-dual-bullish-signals-for-bitcoin-as-funding-turns-negative-hash-rate-slips\/"},"modified":"2026-04-25T13:23:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-25T13:23:03","slug":"vaneck-flags-dual-bullish-signals-for-bitcoin-as-funding-turns-negative-hash-rate-slips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/25\/vaneck-flags-dual-bullish-signals-for-bitcoin-as-funding-turns-negative-hash-rate-slips\/","title":{"rendered":"VanEck Flags Dual Bullish Signals For Bitcoin As Funding Turns Negative, Hash Rate Slips"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Bitcoin\u2019s latest onchain and derivatives data point to a constructive setup, with VanEck highlighting<\/a> negative funding rates and a clustered hash rate drawdown alongside softer volatility and cautious positioning.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The firm notes in their latest report that realized volatility<\/a> fell from about 56% to 41% as US\u2011Iran tensions eased, while the 7\u2011day average funding rate dropped to roughly -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023 and in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020.<\/p>\n

Since 2020, bitcoin\u2019s average 30\u2011day return during periods of negative funding has been 11.5%, compared with 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% hit rate for positive performance. When annualized funding sank below -5%, subsequent 30\u2011day returns averaged 19.4%, and 180\u2011day returns reached 70%, making negative funding a recurrent contrarian buy signal. VanEck also reports that 19 of the top 50 180\u2011day return windows since 2020 began on days with negative funding, despite such periods representing only about 13.6% of the sample.<\/p>\n

The Bitcoin hash rate is falling<\/h2>\n

On the mining side, the 30\u2011day moving average hash rate<\/a> has fallen to the 16th percentile over 30 days and 9th percentile over 90 days, while difficulty has slid to the 5th and 6th percentiles on those horizons.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Three sustained hash rate decline episodes have appeared since December 2025, the densest cluster since China\u2019s 2021 mining ban, with the latest drawdown of about 6.7% ending on April 15, 2026. Across seven completed historical drawdowns, bitcoin was higher 90 days later in six cases, with a median gain of 37.7% and a 63.1% median gain over 180 days.<\/p>\n

Derivatives and onchain activity reflect guarded sentiment rather than capitulation. Put premiums relative to spot volume are more than six times their April 2024 level, while active supply over the last 180 days slipped to 28.4%, signaling greater holder dormancy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Long\u2011tenured cohorts, particularly 7\u201110 year and 10+ year holders, increased spent volume to the 85th and 90th percentiles of the past four years, but VanEck stresses that such movements do not always represent outright selling.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Taken together, the firm concludes that negative funding and hash rate stress form a reinforced bullish backdrop for bitcoin.<\/p>\n

\u201cBoth mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong forward BTC returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on bitcoin,\u201d the analysts wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Editorial Disclaimer:\u00a0<\/strong>We leverage AI as part of our editorial workflow, including to support research, image generation, and quality assurance processes. All content is directed, reviewed, and approved by our editorial team, who are accountable for accuracy and integrity.\u00a0AI-generated images use only tools trained on properly license material.<\/em>\u00a0In Bitcoin, as in media: Don\u2019t trust. Verify.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s latest onchain and derivatives data point to a constructive setup, with VanEck highlighting negative funding rates and a clustered hash rate drawdown alongside softer<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":108918,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-108917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108917"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108917\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108918"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}