\n Posted on: February 17, 2026, 08:42h.\u00a0\n <\/p>\n
\n Last updated on: February 17, 2026, 08:42h.\n <\/p>\n
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- Bitwise, GraniteShares throw hats into prediction markets ETF ring<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Funds appear similar to previously pitched products<\/strong><\/li>\n
- SEC hasn\u2019t approved these ETFs<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
The prediction markets industry is fiercely competitive and the same is true of the race to launch exchange funds (ETFs) tied to political event contracts.<\/p>\n
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A photograph shows a computer displaying Kalshi odds for the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election on Oct. 13, 2024. Two more ETF issuers filed plans for political prediction market funds. (Image: Getty)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Just days after Roundhill Investments filed plans<\/a> with the Securities and Exchange Commission<\/a> (SEC) for ETFs that would hold event contracts based on the 2026 midterm and 2028 presidential elections, rivals Bitwise Investments and GraniteShares followed suit with filings for competing products.<\/p>\n
Under the PredictionShares brand, Bitwise filed for ETFs based on either potential outcome of the 2028 presidential election \u2014 Democrat or Republican \u2014 as well as four funds based on which party will control the two houses of Congress following the November midterms. The filing for the PredictionShares presidential derivatives ETFs implies the funds won\u2019t be rolled forward after the 2028 election.<\/p>\n
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Following the conclusion of the 2028 Presidential Election and the settlement of the Democratic President Contracts pursuant to their terms, the Fund will liquidate its positions, settle any outstanding liabilities and will distribute all remaining assets to holders of Fund Shares,\u201d according to the regulatory document. \u201cTo the extent that a member of the Democratic Party is not the winner of the 2028 Presidential Election, the Fund will lose substantially all of its value and such distribution should be expected to be de minimis. Following this distribution, the Fund will wind up its affairs and terminate.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
It\u2019s possible Bitwise will later alter the structure of the PredictionShares ETFs, assuming they\u2019re approved, to efficiently transition to the next election cycles as Roundhill indicated it would do in its filing with the SEC. The commission hasn\u2019t approved any of the political prediction market ETFs.<\/p>\n
Examining the GraniteShares Filing<\/h2>\n
GraniteShares also has its eyes on election-based yes\/no event contracts<\/a>, which are likely to experience surges in volumes as this year\u2019s primary and general election seasons evolve.<\/p>\n
\nThat asset manager wants to bring Democrat and Republican presidential and congressional election ETFs to market. Its filing with the SEC indicates that if its ETFs are approved, they won\u2019t terminate after Election Days 2026 and 2028. Rather, the 2026 House and Senate funds will be reconfigured for the 2028 elections and the presidential ETFs will be altered to hold derivatives based on the 2032 election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Regardless of issuer, all of the proposed political prediction markets ETFs tap into the zero sum nature of politics. Translation: The ETFs tied to the losing party will basically be worthless after Election Day. As just one example\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u201cThe GraniteShares Democratic Senate ETF\u2019s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation to investors in the event that the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate following the conclusion of the U.S. Senate Elections taking place on November 3, 2026,\u201d according to that issuer\u2019s filing. \u201cIN THE EVENT THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS NOT WON CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE FOLLOWING THE ELECTIONS TAKING PLACE ON NOVEMBER 3, 2026, the Fund will lose substantially all of its value.\u201d<\/p>\n
No Indications About Contract Sources<\/h2>\n
As was the case with the Roundhill filing, neither Bitwise nor GraniteShares provided clues as to which exchanges they\u2019ll work with to source political event contracts, though the issuers noted they\u2019ll work with Designated Contract Markets (DCMs).<\/p>\n
Kalshi and Polymarket are the dominant prediction market operators, but by way of owning ForecastEx<\/a>, Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR) is a major player in the political derivatives niche.<\/p>\n
- Funds appear similar to previously pitched products<\/strong><\/li>\n