Word was that T\u00fcrkiye was going to host talks<\/a> between the US and Iran as part of broader regional discussion, but it appears as if Tehran wasn\u2019t on board<\/a>. That makes sense despite Ankara reportedly being one of the regional countries urging US restraint. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s supposed realization?<\/p>\n Egypt has played an impressive role behind the scenes \u2013 along with T\u00fcrkiye, Saudi, Qatar and Oman \u2013 to avoid this war. It is not just because they recognize that escalation will be uncontrollable, or that the war will spread instability and refugee flows throughout the region.\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/YSnf46opBk<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Trita Parsi (@tparsi) February 1, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n I don\u2019t know. This brings back memories of the Syria situation. It was known that former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad\u2019s fall would strengthen Israel. In the few years preceding Assad\u2019s eventual downfall T\u00fcrkiye publicly renounced its efforts at Damascus regime change. Moscow held the hands of Erdogan and Assad in an effort to mend ties after T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s key role in the dirty war. Meanwhile, Ankara was still conspiring with Washington, Tel Aviv, and head choppers in Syria on next moves.<\/p>\n Now T\u00fcrkiye was reportedly prepared to establis<\/a>h a \u201cbuffer zone\u201d with Iran to prevent the flow of unwanted refugees from Iran in the case of any conflict with Middle East Eye reporting<\/a> this zone would be on Iranian territory.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye, of course, did the same<\/a> in Syria. If we want to stick with the Syria comparison, the recent protests in Iran over financial pain (largely driven by US-led economic warfare) which were hijacked by hostile intelligence agencies share similarities to the early days of the \u201cArab Spring\u201d in Syria. Initial protests in the latter helped lay the groundwork for succeeding waves and further destabilization campaigns.<\/p>\n There are also many reasons Iran isn\u2019t Syria, but the playbook used by the US, Israel, T\u00fcrkiye and other states interested in collapsing the government in Tehran looks similar.<\/p>\n For now, T\u00fcrkiye is eager to get in on talks with Tehran as it pursues a \u201crestructured security architecture<\/a>\u201d for the region. What does Ankara mean by that?<\/p>\n Following a meeting between T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian<\/a> back at the end of November, the Turkish side publicly agreed with their Iranian counterparts on a whole range of issues, including the following:<\/p>\n But let\u2019s look at what T\u00fcrkiye is really doing. Back in October, T\u00fcrkiye followed Washington sanctions on Iran with asset freezes<\/a> of individuals and entities in Iran.<\/p>\n All the talk of T\u00fcrkiye and Israel being at odds ignores the cooperation between the two. T\u00fcrkiye, despite fiery rhetoric, continues to ship Azeri oil and other critical goods to fuel Israel\u2019s carnage. T\u00fcrkiye and Israel are the two biggest allies of the thorn in Iran\u2019s side, Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n At some point, if the government in Ankara really believed Israel is such a threat, it would stand to reason it would actually do something concrete. For now, it\u2019s just words.<\/p>\n Public opinion in T\u00fcrkiye, overwhelmingly opposed to Israel\u2019s actions, demands that the government obfuscate such cooperation with heavy rhetoric.<\/p>\n There are future scenarios where T\u00fcrkiye and Israel could clash, but for now there is strong cooperation between the CIA, Mossad, and Milli \u0130stihbarat Te\u015fkilat\u0131.<\/i><\/p>\n While T\u00fcrkiye and Israel have faced off a bit in Syria, what happened there is also illustrative of their cooperation. At the January Paris meeting that threw the Kurds under the bus, the US, Israel, and T\u00fcrkiye came to an agreement. From The Cradle:<\/p>\n Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was present in Paris and played<\/a> an active role in the negotiations. Its demands were clear: US support for the SDF must end, and the so-called \u201cDavid Corridor<\/a>\u201d must be blocked. In exchange, Turkiye would not obstruct Israeli operations in southern Syria<\/a>.<\/p>\n It was a transactional alignment \u2013 and it worked. It worked\u2014for now. None of the three sides are agreement capable, but as long as they\u2019re all united by a desire to see a change in government in Iran the transactional alignment might hold.<\/p>\n And who knows for how long there will be enough spoils from expansionary ambitions to go around? Private equity real estate investor and Middle East viceroy Tom Barrack seems to believe the answer is a long time:<\/p>\n It\u2019s been a couple years since Erdogan last invoked Misak-i Milli, but let\u2019s not pretend T\u00fcrkiye abandoned its expansionist ambitions.<\/p>\n True that tension between Erdogan and Netanyahu is pure theater, though. https:\/\/t.co\/ztSZadkcGE<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/gFrzrNzH4U<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) February 1, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The Turks certainly look to be benefitting from the more transactional approach of the Trump administration.<\/p>\n The Kurdistan Workers\u2019 Party (PKK) fighters are now in Iraq<\/a> rather than T\u00fcrkiye. The Syrian Kurds are slated to join them. Those are two of Ankara\u2019s biggest goals checked off the list.<\/p>\n And the door to Central Asia through the Caucasus has been thrown open for T\u00fcrkiye with the Trump Route of International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). As we wrote<\/a> at the time, despite a whole lot of question marks about the corridor, Ankara stood to be the biggest winner. Here\u2019s<\/a> Emil Avdaliani,\u00a0 a research fellow at the Turan Research Center and a professor of international relations at the European University in Tbilisi, Georgia:<\/p>\n The US involvement in the South Caucasus means that Washington will become increasingly dependent on T\u00fcrkiye to ensure the long-term viability of the corridor through Armenia. The TRIPP not only invites direct American economic and business presence in the South Caucasus but also expands T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s role in the region. The TRIPP agreement will advance Ankara\u2019s commercial and political interests in the South Caucasus and sideline Iran and to a certain extent Russia. The agreement also opens the way for the restoration of ties between Ankara and Yerevan.<\/p>\n \u2026Russia and Iran have fewer tools to reverse the development of the TRIPP. Neither Tehran nor Moscow can afford any deterioration of ties with T\u00fcrkiye or Armenia and Azerbaijan at the time when the Islamic Republic and Russia have other pressing geopolitical issues to attend to. We\u2019ll deal with that last point more in a post next week, but it\u2019s safe to say that both are already applying pressure behind the scenes. While Moscow has been more flexible with TRIPP, Iran has repeatedly made its position clear:<\/p>\n The Islamic Republic of Iran\u2019s foreign minister has made it crystal clear today that Iran will not accept any changes to the Armenian southern border and that it will not tolerate any foreign forces there. pic.twitter.com\/6HjlRYHiKB<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) November 6, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n And so now we can come back to T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s talk about a \u201crestructured security architecture<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Ankara is looking throw Tehran some crumbs on regional connectivity, transport, and logistics in exchange for accepting what will essentially be a NATO corridor along its northern border. As one example, Ankara mentions the resumption of a gas swap arrangement<\/a> with Iran and Turkmenistan that saw 1.3 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas go from Iran via an existing Iran-T\u00fcrkiye gas pipeline while Turkmenistan delivered a slightly larger volume of gas via existing pipelines to northwestern Iran. It\u2019s unclear, however, if that deal can come back online without the US and EU relenting on some sanctions, which they might do for a time if it meant Tehran acquiesces to them getting their NATO corridor in place. For obvious reasons, it\u2019s unlikely Iran will agree.<\/p>\n And it appears as if Tehran is no longer interested in these games<\/a> that see the country become more encircled by hostile actors. That creeping is likely the more serious danger than Trump\u2019s \u201carmada.\u201d<\/p>\n While it has been well-established that it is likely the US-Israel would lose a confrontation with Iran. It is very unlikely missiles hitting the country would do anything to topple the government in Tehran\u2014more likely they would solidify support\u2014and the US and Israel would face devastating losses to bases, naval assets, critical infrastructure, as well as severe economic injury if the Strait of Hormuz is closed \u2014which is perhaps why an attack has not happened yet despite Israel reportedly being desperate for the US to do so.<\/p>\n There also exists the possibility that the \u201carmada\u201d is more of a distraction and bargaining chip. There have been rumblings that Tehran wants US military assets moved away from its borders before talks resume. Only official US military assets?\u00a0 The real threat, however, lies elsewhere as any hope the US-Israel and other aligned regional nations have in achieving their goals in Iran rest more upon economic warfare and unrest being stirred up by actors on Iran\u2019s borders\u2014Azeris, Kurds, Balochi separatists, ISIS\u2014all supported by Washington-Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n Iraq is likely to play out as the next battlefield as the Zionists attempt to get more hostile actors in place. ISIS is being transferred<\/a> into Iraq as are Kurds where the US and Israel will no doubt try to encourage them to continue their quixotic quest for a state that includes a chunk of Iran.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Israel continues its slaughter in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.<\/p>\n And T\u00fcrkiye, linked up with its little brother Azerbaijan, continues to make a Western-backed push into Central Asia. Baku is stepping up its relationship<\/a> with NATO. T\u00fcrkiye, aided by TRIPP and western sancrtions, is strengthening its influence<\/a> in the Central Asia Republics. As Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said at Davos<\/a>:<\/p>\n Touching on transport and logistics, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijan was the only safe transit route between Europe and Central Asia that is not exposed to sanctions risks. Moscow and Tehran appear to have believed they could rely on common sense economic carrots to keep the Caucasus in line, yet events are not cooperating.<\/p>\n It is clear that Persian Gulf despots and Aliyev are cooperating with their Zionist overlords against the Iranian people.<\/p>\n If there is war, these regimes will be fully complicit. Iran and the Axis of Resistance will ensure that they pay the ultimate price.https:\/\/t.co\/3UnNpIFm9Q<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) February 1, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Regardless of whether the US-Israel start a war, Iran\u2014and Russia\u2014at some point in the not-too-distant future are going to need a more forceful response in the Caucasus or risk it transforming from a headache to a major problem.\u00a0\n
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