It\u2019s been a turbulent and volatile fourth quarter for Bitcoin in 2025. BTC has endured a turbulent December, with prices dropping nearly 9% and volatility spiking to levels not seen since April 2025.<\/p>\n
In its latest mid-December \u201cChainCheck\u201d report<\/a>, VanEck\u2019s digital asset analysts painted a nuanced picture: while on-chain activity remains weak, liquidity conditions are improving, and speculative leverage appears to be resetting, offering cautious optimism for long-term holders.<\/p>\n The firm highlighted the contrasting behaviors between different investor groups. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have been actively buying the dip<\/a>, accumulating 42,000 BTC \u2014 their largest addition since July \u2014 bringing aggregate holdings above one million BTC.\u00a0<\/p>\n This contrasts with Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) investors, who have reduced exposure, underscoring a shift toward corporate accumulation over retail-led speculation.\u00a0<\/p>\n Analysts at VanEck noted that some DATs are exploring alternative financing methods, including issuing preferred shares<\/a> rather than common stock, to fund purchases and operations, reflecting a more strategic, long-term approach.<\/p>\n Onchain data also revealed a divergence between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens held for one to five years have seen significant movement, suggesting profit-taking or portfolio rotation, while coins held for more than five years remain largely untouched.\u00a0<\/p>\n VanEck interprets this as a signal that cyclical or shorter-term participants are offloading assets, whereas the oldest cohorts maintain conviction in Bitcoin\u2019s future.<\/p>\n Miners, meanwhile, have faced<\/a> a particularly challenging environment. Network hash rates fell 4% in December, says VanEck \u2014 the sharpest decline since April 2024 \u2014 as high-capacity operations in regions such as Xinjiang reduced output amid regulatory pressures. Breakeven electricity costs for major mining rigs have also dropped, reflecting tighter profit margins.\u00a0<\/p>\n Historically, however, VanEck notes that falling hash rates can serve as a bullish contrarian indicator<\/a>: periods of declining network power have often preceded positive 90- to 180-day forward returns.<\/p>\n The VanEck team frames its analysis within the GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity) framework, designed to assess Bitcoin\u2019s structural health beyond daily price fluctuations.\u00a0<\/p>\n Under this lens, improving liquidity and the accumulation by DATs provide a counterweight to softer on-chain metrics, including stagnating new addresses and declining transaction fees.<\/p>\n Broader macro trends add complexity to Bitcoin\u2019s outlook. The U.S. dollar has weakened<\/a> to near three-month lows, rallying precious metals, but Bitcoin and other crypto assets have remained under pressure.\u00a0<\/p>\n In parallel, the evolving financial ecosystem may offer new support. Market observers point to the rise of \u201ceverything exchanges,\u201d platforms aiming to integrate stocks, crypto, and prediction markets, leveraging AI-driven trading and settlement systems.\u00a0<\/p>\n Just last week, Coinbase made<\/a> an \u2018everything exchange\u2019 like move and launched an expansion of its platform, introducing stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other features. Companies entering this space \u2014 ranging from traditional brokerages to crypto-native firms \u2014 are vying for market share, potentially increasing Bitcoin\u2019s liquidity and utility over time, VanEck says.\u00a0<\/p>\nBitcoin miners are facing a falling hashrate<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin price volatility\u00a0<\/h2>\n
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