Yves here. It seems that due climate change signs coming in generally at the bad end of the range of forecasts, the timing for reaching various tipping points is coming sooner than earlier warnings indicated. One example is the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which could kick in as soon as ten years from now. <\/p>\n
By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God\u2019s Spies<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n We will probably pass the tipping point for an AMOC shutdown in the next ten to twenty years or so.<\/em> Does death make our lives less sweet? For most of us, no.<\/em> Time for a climate update. Tipping points are approaching. To present this information this systematically, consider the following:<\/p>\n \u2022 Bad things are already happening<\/a>, and they\u2019ll continue. This process is true in a great many areas: sea level rise, for example, and coastal destruction.<\/p>\n The seas are already rising<\/a>, due partly to ocean expansion (warm water takes up more space than cold water), but due mainly to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica. Once the tipping point for glacial melt has been reached, all ice will be guaranteed gone at some future time, and a full sea level rise disaster is bound to occur.<\/p>\n What will that look like? Greenland ice melt will cause 24 feet<\/a> of sea level rise; Antarctica ice melt, 230 feet<\/a>. The world\u2019s coastal cities, where 15% of world population lives<\/a>, will erode with the shores and be drowned. In the U.S., 45% of GDP<\/a> will be lost.<\/p>\n The point to remember: this all occurs in stages. First, pain. Then greater pain. Then a tipping point, which may not be marked by an event, but which nonetheless guarantees, at some future time, complete collapse of the system under discussion.<\/p>\n For most of our systems, we\u2019re at the first point now, or possibly the second \u2014 a point of considerable pain. Yet tipping points silently lurk, some quite nearby.<\/p>\n The \u2018AMOC\u2019, Europe\u2019s Personal Heat Pump<\/b><\/p>\n With that, let\u2019s look at one system under threat, the system of oceanic Atlantic currents that keeps northern Europe from freezing like Canada.<\/p>\n Winter in Montreal (source<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n Europe\u2019s personal heat pump is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC \u2014 what most of us call the \u201cGulf Stream,\u201d though those two are not quite the same. The AMOC is part of the world-ocean circulatory system that takes warm water from Equatorial zones and moves it across oceanic surfaces to the north and south, where it cools and sinks, then returns as deep water currents (see image above).<\/p>\n The part Europeans care about is the part that runs from the Gulf of Mexico to very near Scotland. Paris, for example is three degrees latitude closer to the North Pole than Montreal, and Scotland is closer still<\/a>. Yet northern Europe is warmed by the AMOC, while Canada is not.<\/p>\n Northern Europe is warmed by the AMOC, while Canada is not. The two pins above are cities on the same latitude line. (Image source<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n Now consider the video<\/a> below. In it, notable (very notable) climate physicist Stefan Rahmstorf discusses in scientific terms the future of AMOC. The whole thing is just 15 minutes, but you can start, if you like, at 12:43<\/a> to hear his tipping point prediction.![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-05-at-12.11.57\u202fAM.png\")
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\u2014Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n
\u2014Yours truly<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u2022 Over not much time, the bad things will also get worse.
\u2022 Then tipping points will be reached, after which the worst is baked in.
\u2022 Some years after that, the worst arrives in full.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00-point-of-no-return-1.jpg\")
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