{"id":100290,"date":"2025-10-05T05:56:35","date_gmt":"2025-10-05T05:56:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/05\/a-lot-on-the-line-for-betting-underdog-pereira-at-ufc-320\/"},"modified":"2025-10-05T05:56:35","modified_gmt":"2025-10-05T05:56:35","slug":"a-lot-on-the-line-for-betting-underdog-pereira-at-ufc-320","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neclink.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/05\/a-lot-on-the-line-for-betting-underdog-pereira-at-ufc-320\/","title":{"rendered":"A Lot on the Line for Betting Underdog Pereira at UFC 320"},"content":{"rendered":"


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\n Posted on: October 4, 2025, 09:34h.\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

\n Last updated on: October 4, 2025, 09:37h.\n <\/p>\n

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It\u2019s a star-studded UFC 320 event tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with a double title fight headliner<\/strong>, with light heavyweight title holder Magomed Ankalaev versus No.1-ranked Alex Pereira<\/a> the most intriguing.<\/p>\n

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Alex Pereira of Brazil poses on the scale during the UFC 320 ceremonial weigh-in at MGM Grand Garden Arena yesterday in Las Vegas. Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Pereira the Underdog<\/h2>\n

Pereira gets a shot at reclaiming his belt, and some revenge, after the Russian beat him in a unanimous decision last March at UFC 313<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Georgian, Merab Dvalishvili<\/a> defends his bantamweight title against American Cory Sandhagen in the other title fight.<\/p>\n

BetMGM<\/a> has Pereira as the underdog at +210, Ankalaev at -275, with this fight as the most popular (tickets), followed by Dvalishvili (-425) and Sandhagen (+310), the Khalil Rountree Jr. (+165) versus Jiri Prochazka (-200), Joo Sang Yoo (+135) versus Daniel Santos (-165) in a catchweight bout in the prelims, then Josh Emmett (+360) versus Youssef Zalal (-500), back on the main card, in a featherweight bout.<\/p>\n

Revenge After UFC 313 Loss<\/span><\/h2>\n

Most bet props (tickets) at BetMGM are Pereira by KO\/TKO or DQ +300, Pereira by Decision\/Technical Decision +900, Rountree by KO\/TKO or DQ +300, Dvalishvili by Submission +700, Sandhagen by Submission +2500.<\/p>\n

Mark Collier, a trader with BetVictor<\/a>, said a lot of experts expected Pereira to outgun Ankalaev at UFC 313 and outgun him quickly.<\/p>\n

Didn\u2019t happen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dvalishvili Big Betting Favourite<\/h2>\n

\u201cBout betting that night was -138 Alex with the Over 2.5 line a pick\u2019em bet, almost 7 months later, we see Alex a +175 dog with the pick\u2019em bet for Total Rounds being 4.5,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is nothing but a testament to the Ankalaev performance that night with experts now unsurprisingly envisaging another Magomed 5-round masterclass.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cPredictable betting is somewhat an occupational hazard in our line of work but it\u2019s also another thing we can exploit or take advantage of. Do I expect an Ankalaev Decision again? Personally, I think it goes the other way. Hear me out, this is surely Pereira\u2019s last real chance at Light Heavyweight with failure on Saturday likely forcing his hand and making him jump up to Heavyweight<\/strong>. The last six months after recovery should be about him neutralising Magomed Ankalaev but I really don\u2019t see how he can sustain this.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pereira\u2019s Last Big Chance<\/h2>\n

\u201cMagomed maybe didn\u2019t have full success in every round in March but he knows how to outmanoeuvre Alex now so if Pereira wants to get the job done, he needs to find a way of getting the KO\/TKO and early. The longer this fight goes on, then it goes in favour of Ankalaev. This isn\u2019t a bold observation with the AP KO\/TKO line being around +300 in Vegas but I\u2019d be taking this line instead of Pereira to win the Bout.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo summarise \u2013 the make or break feel to the bout will likely make Alex Pereira a more dangerous opponent.\u201d<\/p>\n

Collier likes Pereira by KO\/TKO\/DQ, at +210 this morning.<\/p>\n

Sandhagen a Big Underdog<\/h2>\n

Collier questioned why No. 4 ranked Sandhagen has been given a shot, with the more deserving Petr Yan (No. 3 ranked) and Umar Nurmagomedov (No. 2 ranked) in the 135-pound division.<\/p>\n

\u201cI really don\u2019t see how Sandhagen can lay a glove on Merab in this one,\u201d he said. \u201cI always try to find justification for alternative scenarios in significant bouts or title fights but in a very similar fashion to how Sandhagen lost to Aljamain Sterling over five years ago, I can see Dvalishvili making very short work of Cory and bagging an early Submission. <\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cAll roads lead to a Merab Decision Win with 12 out of his 15 previous UFC bouts ending in Decision (three of these being over five rounds) but a MD Decision is trading around 1\/2 which I can\u2019t take at that price.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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